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With 15 games on the slate for Week 8, let’s look at some of the most interesting lines early in the week. I spoke to PointsBet Sportsbook analyst Michael Korn for insight on the action for this week’s NFL odds. The bet count shows what percentage of total bets each side has received, while the handle is the percentage of money wagered on each side.
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Week 8 of the NFL season starts with tomorrow night’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense bounced back from a Week 1 rout to win and cover in each of the last six games, but will be without their top two receivers after Davante Adams and Allen Lazard were placed on the COVID list this week. The line moved up from Cardinals -6 to -6.5 at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Kyler Murray is the current favorite for MVP at PointsBet Sportsbook at +375 odds, but the field is still wide open as Week 8 begins. Rodgers (+800) is one of five quarterbacks chasing Murray in the MVP market with odds still listed below +1000.
Many of Sunday’s games are seeing solid two-way action at PointsBet Sportsbook early in the week, including the divisional matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Cleveland’s offense struggled on Thursday Night Football last week without quarterback Baker Mayfield and the team’s top two running backs. Nick Chubb returned to practice this week, but Kareem Hunt is still out and Mayfield’s status is in question. The spread opened at 3.5 and hasn’t moved from there, but Mayfield’s status will play a factor in the closing line.
The Total also hasn’t moved from an opener of 42.5 but with 85% of the total money on the Under, this line could move later in the week. “People love betting on AFC North Unders, so it’s a combination of that and the Baker situation,” Korn said. “AFC North games are usually scrappy so bettors like to take the Under.” According to our NFL Edge Finder, betting the under in AFC North divisional matchups would yield only a 6-9 record since the start of the 2020 season.
The 49ers vs. Bears game stands out with such a low Total, but bettors are still backing the Under at PointsBet Sportsbook. Three of the four games listed at 39.5 or lower since the start of last season went over the Total. “With more passing in the last few years you don’t normally see a Total under 40 but with these two offenses it makes sense,” Korn said.
Early money is on the Under for the Lions vs. Eagles matchup, but the Total is still listed at 48 at PointsBet. Korn noted that the Under on Detroit’s games is always a popular bet, and it might be time for the books to adjust as the Lions have gone 5-2 to the Under so far this season.
No game on the early slate has a bigger differential between bet count and handle on the spread than Falcons vs. Panthers, and this could be one of the more unpredictable games of the week after Sam Darnold was benched in a blowout loss to the Giants last week. The line opened at Falcons -2.5 and quickly moved up to -3 at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Another 1:00 pm ET line to watch is the game between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts. The total moved up two points from an opener of 49 with heavy action on the Over, while the spread remained at -1 despite plenty of Titans support. “The fact that Tennessee has so many bets and still hasn’t moved is telling you the sharp side is going to be Colts,” Korn said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it moves towards the Colts.”
Two teams headed in opposite directions face off in New Jersey as the New York Jets host the Cincinnati Bengals without quarterback Zach Wilson, who was injured in last week’s blowout loss to the Patriots. The Jets traded for former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco this week, but the spread opened at Bengals -9.5 and moved all the way up to Bengals -10.5 with almost all of the bets going against New York. Sportsbooks will be big Jets fans this week as Korn expects this to be one of the most lopsided decisions of the week for PointsBet.
Flacco won’t be ready to start this week and backup Mike White will start for the Jets at quarterback. Korn downplayed the effect of Wilson’s absence on the spread at this point of his career, especially with the poor situation he’s in. “It’s more than just Flacco or Wilson, the Jets’ offense looked disgusting throughout the year,” Korn said. “The QB isn’t going to make much of a difference unless it’s one of those top guys like (Josh) Allen or (Patrick) Mahomes, and the difference between a guy like Flacco and Wilson is almost not noticeable.”
Three of the four late afternoon games on Sunday feature strong two-way action on the spread so far this week. None of those lines have moved from the openers except the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints matchup due to heavy support for the Buccaneers early in the week pushing the spread up from Bucs -4.5 to Bucs -5. Early bets also favor the Under in Jameis Winston‘s first start against his former team, and the Total moved down from 50.5 to 50.
The Sunday night showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and the Minnesota Vikings should be one of the most heavily-bet games of the week, with a primetime matchup between two playoff hopeful teams. The spread hasn’t moved from the opener of -2.5 but the juice dropped from -120 to -107 as the Cowboys attracted 88% of the bets while the Vikings took in the majority of the spread handle at PointsBet Sportsbook. It is no surprise to see this game shaping up to be a Pros vs. Joes matchup, since Dallas is among the most commonly-bet public teams every season and is the only remaining team with an undefeated ATS record this year. This Sunday Night Football matchup also is listed with the highest total of any game this week at PointsBet.
The week concludes on Monday night with the Kansas City Chiefs attempting to bounce back from the worst loss of Patrick Mahomes’ career. Bettors are unsurprisingly backing the Chiefs to come out angry on Monday night, but the line stayed at the opening spread of -10.
Trends to Watch:
Korn noticed more Under action than usual so far this week at PointsBet Sportsbook, and that follows this season’s trend as 55.24% of games went Under the Total through Week 7 this year.
With four double-digit favorites on the Week 8 slate, it will also be interesting to see if the favorites can continue their early-season success. Double-digit favorites covered the spread in eight of 11 games (72.73%) this season, a reversal of last year where double-digit favorites only went 12-17-1 (41.38%) ATS.
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