Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we’ll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let’s go.
Darren Waller Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)
Waller has fallen short of this prop in four consecutive games but has no fewer than seven targets and four catches in that stretch. Since the start of his breakout, 2018 campaign, he has caught more than five passes in 51 percent of his contests. With the Raiders as four-point dogs, Waller’s reception prop, which he has consistently beaten, is even more enticing.
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Aaron Rodgers Under 4.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Rodgers used to be a considerably mobile quarterback, but he has almost entirely abandoned using his legs this year. He has scrambled on 2.3 percent of his dropbacks according to Pro Football Focus. Matt LaFleur hasn’t dialed up a single designed run for him either.
Justin Fields Over 199.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Since the start of last year, 73 percent of starting quarterbacks have reached at least 200 passing yards. While Fields hasn’t topped 20 pass attempts in a game, he also hasn’t played in a one-score game. His team will also be down three running backs this week with David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen still out plus Damien Williams on the reserve/COVID-19 list. PointsBet even has his pass attempts prop at 29.5, indicating an obvious uptick in volume versus the favored Packers. Even if he struggles as a passer, it’s rare to see any starting quarterback with his low of a prop.
Devontae Booker Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
With Saquon Barkley going down early in the Giants’ Week 5 game, Booker saw 16 while Elijah Penny earned a single rush attempt. Booker also out-snapped Penny 60-6. His matchup this week is also easier than most would expect. The Rams are a below-average defense by rushing yards (117) per game allowed and yards per carry (4.5) allowed. If he continues to play the entirety of the Barkley role, as he did last week, he’ll cruise past this prop.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
St. Brown’s receiving prop has been on the rise in recent weeks as his role has grown but this line is beginning to get ahead of his expected production. His jump to a 23.5 percent target share is directly correlated to T.J. Hockenson’s dip in usage. The stud tight end has received 16.2 percent of his team’s targets in that span. I’m betting on Hockenson to regain the No. 1 target role in Detroit sooner rather than later. Once that happens, St. Brown will be the second option for a quarterback averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, the 25th-best mark in the league. It won’t be a great setup to be invested in overs on him.
Last Week: (0-5), -5 units (an “oof” week)
Season: 10-15, -6.1 units
