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Betting the NFL: The Kansas City Chiefs

Seven consecutive AFC West titles. Five straight years of hosting the AFC Championship. Three AFC Championships. Two Super Bowls. Such is the resume of the Kansas City Chiefs.

There is no other franchise in sports with the lone exception possibly being the Golden State Warriors that has even come close to reaching those heights over the past seven years.

Sports books are of course aware of that laundry list of recent titles and also aware how much the public loves betting on the Chiefs. As a result, is it even possible to find value in betting ANY angle with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2023?

Today’s episode of Bet the EDGE found Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) and Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) diving into Andy Reid’s squad as the Chiefs prepare to defend their Super Bowl title.

Dinsick thinks the offense may be a bit more dynamic this season.

“I’m excited to see the development of the wide receiving corps and I think that kind of unlocks the ceiling for this offense being top five versus number one with a bullet…and honestly, Matt Nagy (Chiefs’ OC) not only does he have familiarity with the squad, and oh, by the way, they were a more explosive offense when he was there prior to departing for the Bears…and that explosiveness may offer some opportunities to get involved with Totals because particularly in live game scenarios. If they have more explosiveness this year then the idea that they’re going to come back from a deficit or really be able to put up some pretty impressive offensive scoring numbers is real.”

Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight Tuesday through Saturday at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.

Croucher sees the most value in betting on their signal-caller.

“I think the only way to bet this team is just to bet on Mahomes for MVP. I think this guy is just the most talented football player there’s ever been. I think he will go down as the greatest player of all-time, and there’s still +700 out there in the market. I don’t think that peak Patrick Mahomes can ever be considered at a 12.5% chance to win MVP in the heart of his prime. We talked about it a fair bit, but I just think that’s wrong. I just think its wrong. I think he should be like +250, +300, +350 whatever. He can’t be +700 to win MVP every year of his prime until further notice.”

And for those thinking of betting Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year, Croucher asks said individuals to reconsider said commitment.

“I don’t think anyone should ever waste their time with Andy Reid for Coach of the Year. He has to go 17-0 or it has to be an absolutely barren field and maybe 16-1 could do it. But I don’t think Andy Reid is going to win Coach of the Year when he’s got Patrick Mahomes on his team.”

The public loves betting on Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. A couple stats from last season to keep in mind, however, prior to blindly backing the defending champs. The Chiefs went 9-11 to the OVER and just 8-11-1 against the spread including the playoffs last season. In 2021 they were 10-10 ATS and 12-8 to the OVER (again including the playoffs). The 2020 season saw Mahomes and co. go 9-10 to the OVER and 8-11 ATS. You have to go back to 2019 to find a season in which they dominated against the spread. The Chiefs went 12-5-2 that season ATS but were still just 10-9 to the OVER in 2019.

The moral to the story? The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions and have been at or near the top of the NFL’s food chain for the better part of the last decade but that does not mean bet them blindly.

Do your homework or simply sit back and enjoy the boys of Bet the EDGE.

Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.