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Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

Seems like we all wondered after the Super Bowl last season if the run was winding down for the Chiefs. Well, we were wrong. It wasn’t winding down. It was ending. Sunday, with Travis Kelce playing what sure sounds like his final game at Arrowhead, the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) will host Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos (12-3). Kelce won’t be catching his final passes from Patrick Mahomes (knee)…or from Gardner Minshew (knee)…but rather from Chris Oladokun. That is why the line has jumped from Denver laying 5.5 points to 13.5 points.

While Kelce and co. are playing out the string, the Broncos need this game to all but secure the AFC West title and the top seed in the conference. Denver’s defense, which ranks 3rd in the NFL in points allowed per game, is elite. They lead the NFL with 63 sacks. No question they are salivating at the thought of chasing after the second-year pro Oladokun.

These teams met in November, and the Broncos snapped a 16-game losing streak against the Chiefs with a 22-19 win at home.

Lets take a look at the matchup including a few key stats and trends, the quarterbacks, and those listed on the injury report in addition to Mahomes and Minshew.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates courtesy of Rotoworld, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to Watch the Broncos and the Chiefs live Thursday

  • Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
  • Time: 8:15PM EST
  • Site: Arrowhead Stadium
  • City: Kansas City, MO
  • Network/Streaming: Amazon Prime Video

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered at NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game Odds: Broncos at Chiefs

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Denver Broncos (-1050), Kansas City Chiefs (+675)
  • Spread: Broncos -13.5
  • Total: 36.5 points

This game opened at Broncos -5.5 with the Game Total set at 39.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup: Broncos vs. Chiefs

  • Broncos Starting QB: Bo Nix
    Last Game: 12/21 vs. Jacksonville - 28-47, 352yds, 1TD, 1INT, Sacked 1 time, 4 carries for 11yds rushing
    Season: 15GP, 348-551, 3608yds, 24TDs, 10INTs, Sacked 17 times, 66 carries for 265yds rushing
  • Chiefs Starting QB: Chris Oladokun
    Last Game: 12/21 at Tennessee – 11-16, 111yds, 0TDs, 0INTs, Sacked 4 times, 2 carries for 7yds rushing
    Season: 1GP, 11-16, 111yds, 0TDs, 0INTs, Sacked 4 times, 2 carries for 7yds rushing

Broncos at Chiefs: Team Stats and Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs are 5-9-1 ATS this season
  • The Broncos are 6-8-1 ATS this season
  • The OVER has cashed in just 4 of the Chiefs’ 15 games this season (4-11)
  • The OVER has cashed in 7 of the Broncos’ 15 games this season (7-8)
  • Bo Nix threw for 295 yards in the first meeting this season between these teams
PFT power rankings: Rams fall, Jaguars rise
Mike Florio explains why the Los Angeles Rams fell four spots and the Jacksonville Jaguars rose to No. 2 in the most recent PFT power rankings.

Broncos Player Injuries

  • WR Pat Bryant (concussion) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • C Luke Wattenberg (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • TE Nate Adkins (knee) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • LB Dre Greenlaw (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • S Delarrin Turner-Yell (knee) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game

Chiefs Player Injuries

  • WR Rashee Rice (concussion) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • WR Tyquan Thornton (concussion) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • RT Jaylon Moore (knee) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • CB Trent McDuffie (knee) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • DT Derrick Nnadi (illness) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • CB Jaylen Watson (groin) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
  • QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) has been placed on the IR and is OUT for Thursday’s game
  • QB Gardner Minshew (knee) has been placed on IR and is OUT for Thursday’s game

Rotoworld Best Bets

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Broncos and the Chiefs

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Broncos -13.5.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 36.5.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest betting info & tools for NFL with player news, game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)