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Chiefs at Bills prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

The rivalry that continues to be one-sided - pending when its played - is renewed this weekend in Orchard Park when the Buffalo Bille (5-2) host the Kansas City Chiefs (5-3). Since 2017, the Bills have dominated this rivalry winning five of the six meetings in the regular season, but the Chiefs own the postseason taking all four playoff games. Kansas City is the first team in NFL history with four playoff wins in five seasons against the same opponent.

Fun Fact: The Chiefs (71) and the Bills (66) have the most regular season wins since the start of the 2020 season.

This is one of the rare moments these teams have met in recent history when neither is in first place. The Chiefs have won nine straight AFC West titles, but they currently trail the Broncos, and the Bills have won 5 straight AFC East titles, but they find themselves looking up at the Patriots.

As is the case whenever these teams meet, the stakes are high as Kansas City looks to win for the fourth consecutive week while the Bills look to build on their dominant win coming out of the bye last week against the Panthers.

Lets dive into the numbers from this matchup and see where they take us.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to watch the Chiefs at the Bills live Sunday

  • Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
  • Time: 4:25PM EST
  • Site: Highmark Stadium
  • City: Orchard Park, NY
  • Network/Streaming: CBS

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for the Chiefs at the Bills

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (-130), Buffalo Bills (+110)
  • Spread: Chiefs -2.5
  • Total: 52.5 points

This game opened at Chiefs -1.0 with the Game Total set at 52.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup for Kansas City at Buffalo

  • Chiefs Starting QB: Patrick Mahomes
    Last Game: 10/27 vs. Washington - 25-34, 299yds, 3TDs, 2INTs, Sacked 3 times, 4 carries for 30yds rushing
    Season: 8GP, 189-282, 2099yds, 17TDs, 4INTs, Sacked 14 times, 46 carries for 280yds rushing
  • Bills Starting QB: Josh Allen
    Last Game: 10/26 at Carolina - 12-19, 163yds, 1TD, 0INTs, Sacked 2 times, 3 carries for 7yds rushing
    Season: 7GP, 134-197, 1560yds, 12TDs, 4INTs, Sacked 14 times, 49 carries for 261yds rushing

Chiefs at Bills team stats, betting trends

  • The Chiefs have won 4 of their last 5 games against the AFC East
  • The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog
  • The Chiefs’ last 3 games against the Bills have gone OVER the Total
  • Patrick Mahomes’ 17 TD passes are T-most in NFL with Matthew Stafford
  • Rashee Rice: 16 rec, 135 yds, 3 TD in 2 games this season since returning from suspension
  • Travis Kelce: 83 total TD is T1 in KC history with Priest Holmes
  • Josh Allen: 77 career rush TD, incl. playoffs is T1 with Cam Newton for most by a QB in NFL history

Chiefs Player Injuries

  • LT Josh Simmons (personal) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • RB Isiah Pacheco (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • WR Hollywood Brown (illness) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • RG Trey Smith (back) is questionable for Sunday’s game

Bills Player Injuries

  • PK Matt Prater (calf) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • RB Ray Davis (illness) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • WR Joshua Palmer (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • DT DaQuan Jones (calf) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • LB Shaq Thompson (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • DT Ed Oliver (biceps) has been placed on IR and is OUT for Sunday’s game

Rotoworld Best Bets

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Jay Croucher (@croucherJD): Kansas City Chiefs -2.

Buffalo’s defense has been injured and ineffectual, and the Chiefs’ offense looks the best it has since 2022. Mahomes has proven time and time again that he has an extra gear in the games that matter most - while Josh Allen is quietly taking more sacks and struggling more under pressure than he has in years.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Chiefs and the Bills

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Buffalo Bills at +1.5.
  • Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 52.5.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest betting info & tools for NFL with player news, game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

● Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
● Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
● Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
● Trysta Krick (@Trista_Krick)