Commanders at Falcons prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

There are questions at quarterback in both Washington and Atlanta as the Commanders (2-1) and the Falcons (1-2) get set to meet Sunday in our nation’s capital.

Marcus Mariota proved to be a more than capable substitute for Jayden Daniels in Washington’s 41-24 win over the Raiders this past Sunday. Is Daniels healthy enough to return to the field this week? Regardless, the Commanders no doubt are confident Mariota can help lead them to another victory this week.

Less confident are the Falcons who have scored but 26 points through three games this season with Michael Penix Jr. under center. The second-year pro replaced an ineffective Kirk Cousins late last season but has been less than awe-inspiring through three games this season completing just 58% of his passes and tossing one touchdown pass to date in 2025. Rumblings for Cousins will pick up if the play of Penix does not.

Lets take a deeper dive into this pivotal Week 4 matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Atlanta Falcons.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to watch the Commanders at Falcons live Sunday

• Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM EST
• Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• City: Atlanta, GA
• Network/Streaming: CBS

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for the Washington Commanders at the Atlanta Falcons

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Washington Commanders (-130), Atlanta Falcons (+110)
• Spread: Commanders -1.5 (-105)
• Total: 45.5 points

This game opened at Commanders -1.5 with the Game Total set at 46.0.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup for Washington at Atlanta

• Commanders Expected Starting QB: Marcus Mariota
  Last game: 9/21 vs. Vegas – 15-21 (71.4%), 207yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, Sacked 1 time, 6 carries for 40yds
  Season: 1GP, 15-21 (71.4%), 207yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, Sacked 1 time, 6 carries for 40yds
  Jayden Daniels
  Season: 2GP, 43-72 (59.7%), 433yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, Sacked 7 times, 18 carries for 85yds
• Falcons Expected Starting QB: Michael Penix Jr.
  Last Game: 9/21 at Carolina – 18-36 (50%), 172yds, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, Was not Sacked, 2 carries for 9yds
  Season: 58-99 (58.6%), 605yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, Sacked 4 times, 9 carries for 29yds
  

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons team stats, betting trends

• The Commanders are 7-3 in their last 10 games on the road
• The Falcons have failed to cover the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC teams
• The Under is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 home games

Backup QBs Mariota, Jones, Wentz earn Week 3 wins

Tony Dungy and Jac Collinsworth talk about the "experienced" backup quarterbacks who had success during Week 3 of the NFL season, sharing how Marcus Mariota, Mac Jones, Carson Wentz helped their teams earn crucial wins.

Commanders Player Injuries

• QB Jayden Daniels (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
• WR Terry McLaurin (quad) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
• WR Noah Brown (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
• CB Trey Amos (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
• S Percy Butler (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
• TE John Bates (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game

Falcons Player Injuries

• CB A.J. Terrell Jr. (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
• WR Casey Washington (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
• WR Jamal Agnew (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game

Florio: ATL ‘rearranging deck chairs on Titanic’

Given the Falcons have fired WR Coach Ike Hilliard, Mike Florio and Devin McCourty shed light on why this feels like the first step of whatever is going to happen next.

Rotoworld Bet Best Bets

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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Falcons +1.5

After being shutout last week against the Panthers, I expect one of the most public plays will be backing the Commanders this Sunday. However, historically speaking, Atlanta fits strong trends of teams losing by 30+ points and closing as home underdogs the following week, plus a trend with teams scoring three points or fewer and then playing the next week -- both trends are 58% and 61% since 2003 and 2014. If Jayden Daniels is out, I expect Atlanta to close as the favorite or a pick ‘em, so I will take the +1.5.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Commanders and the Falcons:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Atlanta Falcons at +2.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 45.0.

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● Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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● Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
● Trysta Krick (@Trista_Krick)