Vaughn Dalzell breaks down why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a sneaky bet in the Week 3 Monday Night Football matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Eagles (-5) at Buccaneers: O/U 45.5
The Eagles will be one of the most public bet games and the spread has already dropped from +6.5 to +5.5 and now +4.5/+5 at most shops.
This gives me the feeling of Chiefs at Colts in Week 3 with the Chiefs closing as -4.5 favorites and losing outright.
The Eagles have allowed the second-most passing yards (652), pass attempts (98), the most passing touchdowns (7), and the most first-downs (37). Part of that was because of the game script (leading), but their leads were also mostly luck factors.
Philadelphia should arguably be 0-2 on the season with wins over New England (26-21) and Minnesota (34-28). The Eagles have the sixth-fewest passing yards (363), and lead in first downs through the air (12), but own the second-most rushing yards (356) and fifth-best yards per carry (4.9).
Tampa Bay’s defense has looked fantastic through two games, while I should note they’ve played Minnesota (20-17) and Chicago (27-17).
The rushing attack has 67 carries, while Baker Mayfield has 68 passing attempts, both as efficient as the other with the rise of Rachaad White at running back to assist WR’s, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
Give me Mayfield and the Buccaneers +5 at -110 odds and the ML at +190 odds on the ML. I’d play this down to +3.5 on the spread, but I think Tampa Bay wins outright to kick off Monday Night Football.
Since 2003, when two undefeated teams play in Week 3, the home team is 67-47-3 ATS (59%), while home underdogs are 29-14 ATS (67%). Tampa Bay is the sharp play.
Pick: Buccaneers +5 (1u), Buccaneers ML (0.25u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 8-8-1 (50%) -0.45 units
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