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Monday Night Football Best Bets: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

Betting Browns vs. Steelers in NFL Week 2
Jay Croucher and Vaughn Dalzell preview the Browns vs. Steelers matchup on Monday Night Football and look at the betting outlook for the Week 2 game.

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down a clash between AFC North rivals on Monday Night Football between the home underdog Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Cleveland Browns.

Browns (-2) at Steelers: O/U 38.5

When watching the first game of the season for these two AFC North rivals, they were complete opposite showings.

The Browns beat the Bengals at home, 24-3, and limited Joe Burrow to a career-low 82 passing yards. The Steelers were embarrassed at home, 30-7, to the 49ers and Pittsburgh didn’t cross 200 total yards until the fourth quarter.

Based on that alone, the Browns are the obvious pick, but the obvious choice doesn’t always win. I mean, I had the Jets +2.5 versus the Bills and went to sleep before half thinking no way New York would win with Zach Wilson, and well, New York did.

The factors worth considering when betting on this Steelers versus Browns are the following:

The Steelers are 10-2 following a game where Mike Tomlin’s squad lost by 20 or more points, which is the highest winning percentage since 2007 (83.3%). The 49ers beat the Steelers 30-7 in Week 1, so the trend is in effect and so is Tomlin’s Monday Night Football record.

Tomlin is 19-3 (86.3%) as the head coach of the Steelers on Monday Night Football, and he’s also 24-7-1 (77.4%) against the Browns for his career. The Steelers haven’t been home underdogs since 2019 against the Browns. Devlin Hodges was the Steelers’ starting QB, and Pittsburgh won 20-13.

Cleveland had one winning streak last season. That came in Weeks 12 and 13. Deshaun Watson played in Week 13 versus the Texans and Jacoby Brissett in Week 12 against the Bucs.

Outside of those two weeks, the Browns didn’t put together another winning streak all year. In 2021, it was the same story with one winning streak that spanned three games.

Pittsburgh will be without Cam Heyward and Dionate Johnson versus Cleveland, which should be a concern but in all honestly, the Steelers couldn’t have looked any worse in Week 1.

While Cleveland looked great in a 24-3 win over Cincinnati, the Bengals will likely never look that bad again all season and the same goes with the Steelers.

Give me the Steelers +2.5 at -110 odds as the home underdogs on Monday Night Football. You can shop around for the best price but I got +2.5 at -110 odds as there are mostly +2’s out there for the same price.

I grabbed the Under 39.5 (-110) as it moved up from 38.5. Overs went 12-2 on Sunday and with this being a divisional game in Prime Time, I like the Under.

I sprinkled Najee Harris’ first touchdown (+650), Najee Harris’ two-plus touchdowns (+850), and the Steelers’ defense to score (+900) for a couple of bucks each.

Pick: Steelers +2.5 (1u), Under 39.5 (0.5u)

*Odds provided by DraftKings

Pick: Steelers +2.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings

Lean: I lean Nick Chubb Over 83.5 Rushing Yards with Heyward out, but I played Chubb Over 75.5 Rushing Yards at the opening line and it’s been on the move trending towards 90.

Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight Tuesday through Saturday at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.