Vaughn Dalzell predicts three team totals between the Chargers versus the Packers, the Steelers against the Browns, and the 49ers taking on the Buccaneers.
Chargers (-3) at Packers: O/U 44.0
Green Bay has not scored more than 20 points since Week 2 against Atlanta, but I like this spot for the Pack.
The weather is perfect for points, Green Bay is coming off games of between 17 and 20 in three of the past four games, plus the Chargers permitted at least 20 points in six out of 10 games.
The Chargers have allowed 19 pass plays of 30 or more yards this season, which is tied for most in the NFL, and L.A. gives up 4.1 yards per carry (T-14th) with 11 rushing touchdowns (T-5th most allowed).
Los Angeles was at home last week in a shootout loss to the Lions (41-38), and traveled midway across the country for a 1 PM start at Green Bay.
The Chargers have been traveling back and forth quite a bit and have a primetime game on deck back on the West Coast against the Ravens, while the Packers will play its third home game in four weeks.
Give me the Packers Team Total Over 20.5 at -105 odds good up to 21.5 for 1 unit. Green Bay scored 18, 20, 10, and 20 points in the four home games versus better defenses.
Pick: Packers Team Total Over 20.5 (1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Steelers at Browns (-2): O/U 34.5
Pittsburgh and Cleveland meet in an AFC North showdown that owns the lowest betting total of the season.
Cleveland is starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) and Pittsburgh Kenny Pickett, so understandable on the O/U of 33.0 and 34.5. However, in DTR’s first start, it was on short notice and on the road against the Ravens. This is a much better spot for the Browns’ rookie QB.
Mike Tomlin has an exceptional record against rookie QBs, going 10-1 in the last 11 games, which is why I am taking a team total. Despite leaning Cleveland hard in this game, I will ride with the Browns’ defense and fade Pittsburgh’s team total of 16.5.
Cleveland shut out the Cardinals (27-0), then recorded a comeback game-winning field goal versus Baltimore (33-31), holding Baltimore to 14 points after the first quarter. I expect the Browns’ defense to come out aggressive and stifle Pittsburgh early.
The previous time these squads met in Week 2 this year was a great spot to back the Steelers at home on Monday Night Football, which we did, but now we fade Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Pittsburgh needed two defensive touchdowns and a 71-yard score from George Pickens to beat the Browns (26-22) in that Week 2 matchup.
I grabbed the Steelers Team Total Under 16.5 at -125 odds and would go down to 15.5 for 1 unit and 14.5 for a half-unit.
Pick: Steelers Team Total Under 16.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Buccaneers at 49ers (-13.5): O/U 41.5
The 49ers looked back to its old ways in a dominant 34-3 win over the Jaguars in Jacksonville. San Francisco flies back across the country, but so does Tampa Bay as the Bucs’ are coming off a 20-3 win versus the Titans.
The Bucs rank 31st in offensive success rate this season and have three runs of 15-plus yards, plus Baker Mayfield ranks last in accuracy rating and 28th in red zone accuracy rating.
Tampa Bay has scored 13 or fewer points in three of out nine games this year against the Eagles, Lions, and Falcons. San Francisco’s defense is comparable to the Eagles, and I was on Tampa Bay +5.5/+6 in that game (25-11 Philly win).
This also isn’t a great spot for Tampa, who had two home games, then two straight road games, all four resulted in losses. After that, Tampa Bay beat the Titans at home, and are now going back on the road to California to play the 49ers. San Francisco had a bye week before the win versus Jacksonville.
I grabbed Tampa Bay’s team total Under 15.5 at -130 odds and would go down to 14.5 for 1 unit as well. The 49ers have kept five out of nine opponents to 16 or fewer points and four to 12 or less points.
Pick: Buccaneers Team Total Under 15.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 46-23-1 (66.6%) +20.13 units
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