The NFL is back! After two games, how can the Sunday games top spit gate and YouTube? I think it will be pretty easy and there will be some dogs barking in Week 1, as always. Let’s go!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Steelers (-3) at Jets: O/U 38.5
Justin Fields went from Pittsburgh to New York, and Aaron Rodgers went from New York to Pittsburgh. In what world would these coaching staffs not be prepared to limit these quarterbacks?
Rodgers didn’t play a single snap in the preseason, so rust might be a factor for the 41-year-old and based on what Fields expects of the offense, New York wants run to run the ball and bleed clock on 10, 12, and 15 play drives.
What I expect is tons of running plays, bleeding clock, plenty of incompletions and punts with the occasional quarterback pressure on third down. I played the first half Under 19.5 at -110 odds and would go down to 18.5 but prefer to play the 19.5 out to -130 odds before opting for 18.5. Shop around.
Pick: Steelers vs Jets 1H Under 19.5 (1 unit)
49ers (-1.5) at Seahawks: O/U 43.5
After the news regarding Christian McCaffrey‘s health (more than likely a false alarm), the line has been trending down toward +1.5 and +1 at some shops.
This will likely close as a pick-em, so I think you should buy the points with the Seahawks. Seattle lost six of the past seven against San Francisco, but they did win the previous meeting (20-17). Seattle’s improved their defense and Sam Darnold did earn a win over the 49ers in Minnesota as a Viking last year (23-17 win, 268 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT),
Seattle was atrocious ATS-wise at home last year (2-7 ATS), but are 9-1 on the ML and 6-4 ATS in Week 1 as the home team. I’m rocking Seattle +2.5 (-115). I’d go down to +1.
Pick: Seahawks +2.5 (1.5 units)
Texans at Rams (-3): O/U 43.5
The more I look at this game, the more I see both teams having problems of reaching 20 points. Nick Chubb replacing Joe Mixon is not ideal , Matthew Stafford missing the entire preseason is not ideal, the Davante Adams deal is overrated and the Texans’ pass game is withered down to basically Nico Collins once again.
Houston has ballers all over the defense and a pass rush that could wreck havoc on the 37-year-old Stafford. For Los Angeles, they have been credited by many as having an up-and-coming defense and they showed that with 9 or fewer points allowed in three of the final four games in 2024 (13.5 PPG allowed over L4).
I played the Under 43.5 at -115 odds and would go down to 42.5 although 43 is a key number.
Pick: Under 43.5 (1 unit)
Vikings (-1.5) at Bears: O/U 43.5
With the Chicago Bears being a divisional home underdog in Week 1, which has won over 60% in the past five seasons, mixed with JJ McCarthy making his first start on the road as a rookie quarterback, plus year two with Caleb Williams and an improved coaching staff — I just love this combo for the Bears.
Chicago is thin at running back, but I believe D’Andre Swift and this receiver group is talented enough to carry the load with Ben Johnson as the new coach. Minnesota blitzed a ton and Williams struggled versus the blitz, expect Johnson to push a quicker offense.
P.S. Rookie QBs on the road in Week 1 are 8-21 on the ML since 1970. Sam Darnold was the last winner in 2018. Give me Da Bears at +1.5 (-110)!
Pick: Bears +1.5 (1.5 units)
Buccaneers (-1.5) at Falcons: O/U 46.5
Atlanta swept Tampa Bay last season with Kirk Cousins, but now they turn to Michael Penix, who showcased strides in the final three games. Penix, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson could be a big-three for seasons to come, while Tampa Bay is aging.
On the other side is Baker Mayfield, whom I can’t trust. Mayfield is 6-14 ATS as a divisional favorite in the past 20 contests and even worse, an incredible 19-31-1 (38%) ATS as a favorite since being drafted in 2018.
The Falcons are 1-4 in the last five season openers at home, but I am buying in here. I played +2.5 at -115 odds, but would go down to +1 for Atlanta. I think the Falcons win.
Pick: Falcons +2.5 (1 unit)
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