After another winning week, let’s keep the good times rolling with some big favorites and a few player props! Good luck!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Giants at Lions (-13.5): O/U 50.5
Jameis Winston will get another start and I don’t think this one goes as smooth as the first. The Packers are playing poor football lately and going on the road to New York was a fade spot. I was on the Giants first quarter and leaned the whole game +7.5, which both cashed.
The Lions are in a buy-spot after losing 16-9 to Philadelphia. Detroit beat Washington by 22 the week prior and lost by three to Minnesota following the buy week, so that’s a 1-2 record since the break. I think Detroit can manhandle this team and both running backs can have a day versus a Giants’ defense that continually allows big plays. Give me Detroit -12.5 to -13.5.
Pick: Lions -12.5 (1 unit)
Seahawks (-12.5) at Titans: O/U 40.5
The Titans covered last week and have the Jaguars next week, so this is a classic sandwich spot versus a good team between divisional opponents. Trying to figure out Tennessee’s focus and motivation is like guessing what number will hit in roulette at this point.
However, we know how Seattle feels and that’s motivated to bounce back after losing to the Rams. Sam Darnold threw four interceptions and Seattle could have still won that game. Before that game, Darnold had six touchdowns and two interceptions in 22-point and 24-point wins over Washington and Arizona. I think Darnold goes Under 0.5 interceptions and the Seahawks cover the big spread of -12.5.
Pick: Seahawks -12.5 (1 unit)
Jets at Ravens (-13.5): O/U 44.5
The Ravens burned me last week, so I am back on the train. Well, I haven’t gotten off the past four weeks and I don’t plan on it anytime soon.
Lamar Jackson is coming off a horrid start versus Cleveland and surely will bounce back against this weak Jets defense. Justin Fields was benched for Tyrod Taylor, but I am not worried. In fact, sports book actually move the jets team totals down a bit when the move was announced.
Give me Ravens -13.5 and the Jets first half team total Under 7.5 as two scoring drives on this Ravens defense will be a difficult task in 30 minutes. Last week was a first-half outlier versus Cleveland. I think we see the Ravens defense dominate and the Jets have trailed for almost 46% of the offensive snaps, which is the worst.
Pick: Ravens -13.5 (1 unit), Jets 1H Team Total Under 7.5 (1 unit)
Falcons at Saints (-1.5): O/U 40.5
The Saints favored? I don’t think so. I know Kirk Cousins had a poor showing in the main two games he played this season and finished last year on a bad note getting replaced by Michael Penix — but this is a buy-spot on Cousins and the Falcons.
The Saints have converted a league-low 38.5% of their red zone trips into touchdowns and one of the lowest scoring first quarter and first half teams. It won’t take much for Cousins and Bijan Robinson to be able to put up 20 points in order to win to this game. I like Atlanta +2.5 down to +1.
Pick: Falcons +2.5 (1 unit)
George Pickens O/U 66.5 Receiving Yards vs Eagles
George Pickens has gone Over his receiving yards line in five straight games and Over 66.5 yards in eight of out 10 games this season!
However, this line is fishy as he had a 66.5 yard prop against the Raiders and went off for a season-high 144 yards. When lines are the exact same the following week, that is an indication that he will finish closer to the 30 yards in Week 1 versus Philadelphia rather than the 66.5 yard line he’s hovered around all season.
The Eagles defense and secondary have been on another level lately. Philly allows a league-low 56.8% completion rate and sixth in yards per pass attempt (6th) since Week 4. I like Pickens to go Under 66.5 yards down to 62.5. I might make this a 2 unit bet — we’ll see.
Pick: George Pickens Under 66.5 Receiving Yards (1 unit)
Season Record: 97-64-1 (60%) +28.61 units | 14.85 ROI%
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