We have three weeks remaining in the NFL’s regular season and it’s really starting to heat up! The Chiefs have been eliminated from the playoffs, the Steelers are in first place of the AFC North, Seattle stole the No. 1 seed in the NFC from Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football, and that’s just a small sliver of the action. Here are my five best bets for the Week 16 slate.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Packers at Bears (-1.5): O/U 46.5
The Packers are beat up and that’s bad news going to Chicago on Saturday night to take on a Bears team that wants revenge from two weeks ago. Chicago had a chance to win the first meeting, but soiled it in the final moments with an interception, but nonetheless, it was neck-and-neck.
The second meeting should be more of the same, but in Chicago’s favor. Green Bay’s defense has performed differently on the road with 2.60 points per drive allowed (27th) versus 1.59 per drive at home (7th). That should be a problem versus a Chicago team that is top five in a lot of advanced rushing metrics lately, including success rate, which they rank first in since Week 5.
Multiple lineman and receivers could miss for Green Bay, plus Micah Parsons on defense. Chicago isn’t healthy at wide receiver, but it hasn’t mattemicar lately with their stellar offensive line play and no Parsons on the other side. I like Chicago on the ML at -125 odds.
Pick: Bears ML (1.5 units)
Josh Allen O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs Browns
With Matthew Stafford and the Rams losing, plus the Patriots being road underdogs in Baltimore this weekend, Josh Allen has a real chance at stealing this award, and luckily, he faces the Browns this week. All he has to do is be himself and not try to do too much as the Bills are -10.5 point favorites.
Cleveland has one interception in the last four games, and it came against Cam Ward. Allen will have a clean sheet here and go under his juiced interceptions line (-154). While Allen’s 10 interceptions on the year aren’t ideal, six of them came during a four-game stretch and he’s had zero in the past two games along with seven total touchdowns.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interceptions (Risk 2 units)
Travis Etienne O/U 60.5 Rushing Yards vs Broncos
The Jaguars go to the Mile High City to take on the Broncos, and that presents challenges for Travis Etienne. Not only is Denver 11th in EPA per rush, but they also have the best third-down defense and elite pressure rates. Etienne played 65.5% of snaps versus the Jets last week, his fourth-highest of the season, and 75.4% the week prior against the Colts, but both were in run-heavy spots. This is not that.
Besides, Jacksonville’s passing game has really taken off since the bye week, especially downfield with splash plays. The Jaguars will need the passing game from the start if they want to beat Denver. Not rely on the ground and pound game with Etienne. Go Under his 60.5 rushing yards (-114) in Denver down to 56.5. He is 7-7 on the season to this number.
Pick: Travis Etienne Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (1 unit)
David Montgomery Anytime TD vs Steelers
David Montgomery is a on season-long three-game touchdown streak as he’s reached the end zone against the Packers, Cowboys, and Rams in that stretch. Now, Montgomery takes on a Steelers defense coming off two straight wins and a dominant showing against Miami.
With a game total of 52.5, the highest of the week, and a team total of 30.5, also the largest, I think Montgomery’s odds should be heavier than -105. Six of the last eight teams have recorded a rushing touchdown against the Steelers, so I will take a swing on the Lions complimentary back to find the end zone for a fourth-straight game. He and Jaymyr Gibbs could both score like the good old days for Detroit.
Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD (1 unit)
Philip Rivers O/U 0.5 Passing Touchdowns vs 49ers
Philip Rivers almost pulled the rabbit out of a hand in a two-point loss versus Seattle, but his defense let him down. Rivers tossed 120 yards on 18-of-27 and had one touchdown and one interception. His passing yards prop has raised from 151.5 to 157.5, which draws a little pause for me, but I think there is value on Rivers to not throw a touchdown.
I bet Rivers to go Under 0.5 passing touchdowns last week and he had one red zone throw — an eight-yard touchdown. Go figure, right? Well, at +168 odds, I will absolutely run it back and take another shot on Rivers to go Under 0.5 touchdowns.
Pick: Philip Rivers Under 0.5 Touchdowns (1 unit)
Season Record: 114-84-1 (58%) +22.36 units | 9.49 ROI%
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