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Patriots vs. Bengals prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

Two franchises trending in different directions meet Sunday in Cincinnati when the Bengals (3-7) take on the New England Patriots (9-2). The Pats have won eight in a row while the Bengals have lost three straight and seven of their last eight games.

There have been rumblings Joe Burrow (toe) may return this weekend for the Bengals, but whether he does or not, Cincinnati’s greater issues are on the other side of the ball. The Bengals’ defense ranks last in the league in points and yards allowed. Cincinnati has allowed 27+ points in 9 straight games, tied for the longest streak in a season in NFL history (2020 Chargers, 1964 Broncos).

That generous defense makes the challenge all the greater no matter who starts under center for the Bengals. Finding a path to victory will be difficult. The Patriots’ defense has been stout all season under Head Coach Mike Vrabel. They are ranked No. 1 against the run. New England’s first-year coach is looking to become the 5th Head Coach since the 1970 merger to record a winning streak of 9+ games in his first season with a team, joining Jim Caldwell with IND in 2009 (14), Steve Mariucci in 1997 with San Francisco (11), Ted Marchibroda in 1975 with the Colts (9) and Andy Reid in 2013 with Kansas City (9).

In addition to that aggressive and stingy defense, the Pats have thrived thanks to the play of quarterback Drake Maye. The sophomore slinger leads the NFL in
passing yards with 2,836, completion percentage (71.9%), and passer rating (113.2 – 1st, among qualified QBs).

Lets take a deeper dive into this week’s matchup between the Patriots and the Bengals.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates from Rotoworld, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to watch the Patriots vs. Bengals live Sunday

  • Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
  • Time: 1:00PM EST
  • Site: Paycor Stadium
  • City: Cincinnati, OH
  • Network/Streaming: CBS

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for the Patriots at the Bengals

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: New England Patriots (-290), Cincinnati Bengals (+235)
  • Spread: Patriots -6.5
  • Total: 50.5 points

This game opened at Patriots -7.5 with the Game Total set at 49.0.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup for New England at Cincinnati

  • Patriots Starting QB: Drake Maye
    Last Game: 11/13 vs. Jets - 25-34, 281yds, 1TD, 0INTs, Sacked 1 time, 4 carries for 2yds rushing
    Season: 11GP, 230-320, 2836yds, 20TDs, 5INTs, Sacked 36 times, 70 carries for 285yds rushing
  • Bengals Expected Starting QB: Joe Flacco
    Last Game: 11/16 at Pittsburgh - 23-40, 199yds, 1TD, 1INT, Sacked 1 time, 1 carry for -1yds rushing
    Season: 9GP, 228-373, 2268yds, 14TDs, 9INTs, Sacked 17 times, 15 carries for 28yds rushing

Patriots at Bengals team stats, betting trends

  • The Bengals have won 4 of their last 5 home games against AFC opponents
  • The Patriots are 8-3 ATS this season
  • The Bengals are 3-7 ATS this season
  • The OVER has cashed in 7 of the Bengals’ 10 games this season (7-3)
  • The OVER has cashed in 6 of the Pats’ 11 games this season (6-5)

Patriots Player Injuries

  • RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • TE Austin Hooper (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • LB K’Lavon Chaisson (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • LB Harold Landry III (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • DE Milton Williams (ankle) was placed on the IR Saturday and is OUT for Sunday’s game

Bengals Player Injuries

  • QB Joe Burrow (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • QB Joe Flacco (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • DE Cedric Johnson (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • WR Ja’Marr Chase (suspended) is OUT for Sunday’s game
  • TE Mike Gesicki (pectoral) has been designated to return from the IR
  • S Daijahn Anthony (hamstring) has been designated to return from the IR
  • RG Jalen Rivers (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • DE Trey Hendrickson (hip) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game
  • DE Cam Sample (oblique) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • RB Samaje Perine (ankle) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game

Rotoworld Best Bets

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Patriots and the Bengals

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Cincinnati Bengals on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Cincinnati Bengals at +6.5.
  • Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 50.5.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest betting info & tools for NFL with player news, game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

● Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
● Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
● Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
● Trysta Krick (@Trista_Krick)