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Hello everyone and welcome to March! It’s hard to believe that there are just two months left of the regular season. The playoff hunt is on so let’s get into it:
CALGARY FLAMES at MINNESOTA WILD (Flames -1.5, -125 ML, OU 6)
Tonight, the 31-14-6 Calgary Flames will be facing off against the 31-16-3 Minnesota Wild in St. Paul. This game features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Flames are 9-1-0 in their last 10 and are sitting atop the Pacific Division. The Wild, on the other hand, are coming into this contest having lost three in a row and five of their last six games. The Flames and Wild clashed in Calgary on Saturday night with the Flames taking a commanding 7-3 victory.
Although Minnesota has been faltering as of late, they just wrapped up a four-game Canadian road trip and will be playing at home 12 times this month. This will be a cause for optimism as the Wild aims to curb their losing ways. They have been dominant at home this season, having posted a record of 16-4-1 while averaging 4.4 GF/GP and surrendering 3.1 GA/GP. Their propensity for high-scoring games has led them to hit the Over in 16 of 20 games at the Xcel Energy Center this season. That’s amounted to the best home Over record in the league. This season, they are third in the NHL with 3.7 GF/GP and 21st with 3.1 GA/GP. This has been a recipe for lighting the lamp on both ends of the ice and has contributed to the Wild hitting the Over in 64% of their games this season.
The Flames come into this match up with 3.4 GF/GP on the season, good for eighth in the NHL. Over their last 10 games, they have had an impressive 4.5 GF/GP while giving up just 2.2 GA/GP. Their recent defensive play has helped lower their season average of goals allowed to second in the league. Since the beginning of February, the Flames lead the league in Corsi For at 5-on-5 of 58.89% and expected goals for at 5-on-5 (xGF) of 27.39. Their ability to possess the puck and generate high-quality scoring opportunities has correlated directly to their recent success, and playing in a high-scoring atmosphere in Minnesota could create offensive fireworks again.
Goaltending
Cam Talbot is the probable netminder for the Wild tonight. On the season, Talbot is 19-11-1 with a 2.94 GAA and .910 SV%. Talbot has played well this season, but he has been getting lit up over his last several starts. Although he was not in the net for Saturday’s loss to Calgary, he has given up at least four goals in his last three starts. He owns a Goals Saved Above Average of -2.56 at 5-on-5 at home this season.
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Calgary could see either Jacob Markstrom or Dan Vladar get the starting nod tonight. Markstrom is 24-11-5 with a 2.13 GAA and Vladar is 7-3-1 with a 2.86 GAA this season. As always, be sure to check the starting lineups before puck drop.
Trends
There are several interesting trends that indicate the Over is the play for tonight:
Calgary to the Over:
- 27-24 overall this season
- 16-12 on the road this season
- Have gone Over is seven of their last 10 games.
Minnesota to the Over:
- 32-18 overall this season
- 16-4 at home this season
- Have gone Over in six of their last seven games
The Total is currently set at 6 for this tilt. The Wild’s home Over record is 12-2 when the Total is set at 6 or less. Given the Wild’s play at the Xcel Energy Center and that both teams can score in batches, it seems like this Total could easily be set at 6.5. That would indicate that 6 number seems to be a solid value. NBC Sports Edge’s Game Predictions tool has the Over as a “strong” play for tonight. On the season, Total predictions of this category are 76-44-2.
Pick: Flames/Wild Over 6 Goals
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