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A five-match slate is on tap Saturday in the English Premier League, with the main event being the London Derby between West Ham and league-leading Chelsea.
While that may be the featured event, it is not one I am particularly interested in from a gambling standpoint.
Below you will find a match that does appeal from a betting point of view, with a wager featuring overlaid odds available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
NEWCASTLE UNITED v. BURNLEY – DRAW NO BET – BURNLEY (Currently +124 at PointsBet)
A battle of bottom three clubs is set to take place at St. James’ Park between host Newcastle and visiting Burnley in a contest that neither club can afford to lose.
Much has been made about the new ownership group at Newcastle and their intention to spend large sums of money in the upcoming January transfer window, which sounds good – in theory.
The fact remains that the Magpies have a -14-goal differential in the Premier League, and despite a spirited performance against Norwich earlier this week in which they played to a 1-1 draw while playing a man down, Newcastle’s issues are widespread.
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Burnley F.C. may only sit three points ahead of Newcastle at the moment, but the football they have played over the past five weeks indicates they are trending the right direction.
Draws with Chelsea, Crystal Palace, and Wolverhampton Wanderers combined with a 3-1 victory over Brentford have Sean Dyche’s squad looking more like a mid-table team than one that has battled to stay out of the relegation zone.
Based on my projections, Burnley defeats Newcastle on the road – with a draw resulting as no bet – 49% of the time.
This percentage translates to odds of +104, making Burnley’s current odds for this wager of +124 (implied probability of 44.6%) a solid overlay worth considering.
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