The main event in the Premier League on Saturday is the showdown at Stamford Bridge between Chelsea and Manchester United, but it’s not a match that I feel offers a great deal of value from a gambling standpoint.
A game that does interest me in terms of betting, however, is the contest between Manchester City and Brighton & Hove Albion set to take place at the Etihad in Manchester.
Below you will find an overlay from this match, with the odds supplied by DraftKings.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
9-7-2 (55.6%), +5.35 units (with Saturday’s Wolves / Nottingham Forest result pending)
MANCHESTER CITY v. BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION – BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE NO DRAW – Yes (+150)
On the heels of their second league loss of the season, Manchester City will surely be looking to get back on track against Brighton at the Etihad on Saturday.
Following the loss to Liverpool at Anfield last weekend, City now find themselves four points behind league leaders Arsenal and just four points clear of fifth-place Manchester United.
Fear not, though, as Saturday looks to be a fantastic opportunity to rebound and earn all three points on offer.
Following a 3-3 draw against Liverpool in manager Roberto De Zerbi’s first match in charge of Brighton, the Seagulls have been unable to find the back of the net, going goalless in each of their last three games.
The results are especially disappointing when factoring in they’ve dominated possession in all three contests (59% in 1-0 loss to Tottenham; 73% in 2-0 loss to Brentford; 70% in 0-0 draw with Nottingham Forest), making Saturday’s task even more daunting.
Manchester City scoring goals in front of their home supporters coming off a loss seems like a foregone conclusion, making it paramount for Brighton to create some sort of offense.
Leandro Trossard may be pacing Brighton in terms of goals on the season (five in ten matches), but it’s 31-year-old Danny Welbeck that’s shown signs of life lately, suggesting he may be ready to break through.
Despite having not yet scored this year, Welbeck has an expected goals total of 2.2 on the season according to fbref.com, indicating he’s been unlucky not to notch a tally to this point.
As potent as the Manchester City attack is, City as a group have been known to yield a goal (or two) against opponents they may be toying with, and my hope is that again turns out to be the case on Saturday.
My numbers suggest that both teams can be expected to score with the match not resulting in a draw 51.7% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -107.
This makes the +150 (implied probability of 40%) offered at DraftKings a wager that shouldn’t be ignored.