Will it be one step closer to coming home or will everyone’s second favorite team continue their fantasy run?
We’ll have the answer at the conclusion of Euro 2020’s second semifinal between England and Denmark Wednesday at Wembley Stadium.
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Making this semifinal even more intriguing are the two meetings between these sides in the Nations League. Across two meetings, it was Denmark who won once -- at a crowdless Wembley after Harry Maguire was sent off -- and drew once.
But it’s the Three Lions, who entered the tournament as co-favorites, who are hefty -301 favorites to advance to the final with the Danes a +225 underdog at PointsBet Sportsbook.
So as we close out the penultimate round of the European Championships, here are my best bets for the matchup.
England vs. Denmark - Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET
The biggest question I have entering this match - what happens if Denmark manage to score the first goal?
Let’s be real: England have yet to face the tiniest bit of adversity this tournament and their Starting XI is not designed to play from a deficit.
While the English remain the only side not to lose a game on expected goals so far at Euro 2020, Denmark have scored the first goal in four of five matches. Further, the Danes have registered a tally inside of five minutes twice.
For that reason, I find it difficult to back a side in this match. I would lean toward the Denmark Goal-Line (+1) at -150 or lower -- even if the Danes fall, I don’t believe it’ll be by multiple goals -- but the current price of -175 is too high to effectively bet against England.
Additionally, because I’m holding a futures ticket on Denmark, there’s no hedge opportunity readily available. If England become available live at plus-money, I would consider hoping in on that side.
With that said, the one market I do have conviction in is the Denmark Team Total Over 0.5 (-130). Despite England entering this fixture having never conceded, the Denmark attack is by far the best they’ll face.
With all due respect to England’s previous five opponents, the Danish expected goal record -- 11 goals on 11.39 xGF -- shows me their front three is capable of capitalizing a golden chance against the English defense.
While England’s defensive record should be applauded - zero goals conceded on 3.37 xGA - they still managed to concede 1.33 xGA against Germany, a team with closer offensive production to Denmark than their other four opponents (Croatia, Scotland, the Czech Republic and Ukraine).
Another market that definitely catches my eye is Harry Kane Anytime Goal (+130). The English captain has registered three goals in two games and has entered the golden boot race out of nowhere.
Honestly, I’m a little surprised this price isn’t closer to +110. Given Denmark’s concessions have mostly been generated through the middle of the park, Kane looks like a good bet to get a fourth tally.
Finally, it’s by no means a play, but if your confidence in this Denmark side is higher than mine, I like the price you’re getting on Denmark to Win 1-0, 2-0 or Draw 1-1 (+250). While England are certainly capable of another offensive explosion, I don’t envision Denmark winning by more than a 1-0 margin.
Additionally, that bet includes two likely gamescripts for the Danes. The first? Go up 1-0 early, park the bus and get a late, garbage-time goal to seal it. The second? Denmark scores first, England spends the entire match attacking and finally breaks through to send the match to extra time.
For that particular bet, I’d give it a look so long as it remains at +225 or higher.
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