Following what can only be described as a bonkers round of 16, we’re onto the quarterfinals at Euro 2020.
Eight nations still have a chance to lift the trophy come July 11th at Wembley Stadium with England (+200) the new live favorites, followed by Spain (+300) and Italy (+400) at PointsBet Sportsbook.
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For now, though, we’re going to focus on the two fixtures Friday: Switzerland vs. Spain in St. Petersburg and Italy vs. Belgium in Munich.
Only Spain are odds-on favorites to win in regular time, while La Furia Roja and Italy are favored to advance to the semifinals.
With that said, allow me to share my best bets for the first set of quarterfinal matches.
Spain vs. Switzerland - Friday, Noon Eastern Time
After encountering some bad luck offensively in their first two group matches, Spain has seemingly found their offensive groove.
Against Sweden and Poland, the Spaniards only scored once from nearly six expected goals. However, against Slovakia and Croatia, Spain scored 10 goals on 7.87 expected.
If you include their expected goals in extra time against Croatia, Spain remain one of only four teams that are unbeaten on expected goals in the tournament.
As for their opponents Switzerland, some good Fortune led to their upset of pre-tournament favorites France. Yes, they came back from a 3-1 deficit, but expected goals show France had better chances in both halves.
Additionally, Switzerland will be without midfielder Granit Xhaka in the quarters due to yellow card accumulation and have only defeated Spain outright once in seven all-time meetings.
While it may be the most public side of the quarterfinal round, my play in this match is going to be the Spain Moneyline (-159).
For any side to have a chance against Luis Enrique’s side, they need to demonstrate to me they’re comfortable playing without the ball. Through four matches, Spain have maintained a 74 percent possession average.
Especially without Xhaka in the midfield, I don’t expect Switzerland to see enough of the ball to create enough chances to keep up with Spain’s attack.
Through four matches, they’ve averaged a 53 percent possession average and the lowest amount of possession Switzerland have had in a game is 45 percent. That’s simply not going to happen against Spain.
If you’re looking for some bonus action, another play I like is the Spain Team Total Over 1.5 (-135). In all four of their matches, Spain have generated more than two expected goals and Switzerland have conceded at least two against like-minded opposition (France and Italy).
Italy vs. Belgium - Friday, 3 p.m. ET
If this game lives up to the hype, we’ll be in for an absolute treat.
Like Spain, Italy arrive in Munich with a perfect record according to their expected goal metrics. Meanwhile, Belgium enter this fixture as an underdog for the first time all tournament and their two best players doubtful.
While some may expect the Red Devils to roll over without Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne, I’m not sold on this Italy side. They’ve a) yet to face an offense that can genuinely challenge their back-line and b) played one game away from home, where they looked their worst.
The first play that stands out is Belgium Double Chance, but I would be looking for a price closer to -155 (as of this writing, the price is -176). Remember that Belgium are unbeaten in their last 13 matches and have won 23 of their last 27 matches.
Plus, even if Roberto Martinez is forced to start Yannick Carrasco and Dries Mertens in support of Romelu Lukaku, it’s not the end of the world. From my perspective, Belgium played their best match against Russia (a 3-0 win) that saw a lineup very similar to what we should expect against the Italians.
The key difference this time? Axel Witsel will provide defensive support through the middle while Carrasco and Mertens provide link-up play to Lukaku.
Beyond that, the one play I’m looking at is Both Teams to Score (-105). Even though Italy have yet to concede in regular time, the key factor I’m considering is the age of both defenses.
The cumulative age of Belgium’s back three is 101 years while the Italy centre-half pairing of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonnuci have a combined age of 70.
Ultimately, I trust Italy to at least register one goal. But as referenced earlier, the Azzurri have yet to face an offense on the level of Belgium. Given that Belgium’s best gameplan would be to go for it and try to run up the score, I have enough faith they’ll be able to get at least one in the back of the net.
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