The Golden Boot is not the only option we have for betting on goalscorers at Euro 2020. PointsBet Sportsbook offers the unique ability to wager on the Top Team Goalscorer for each nation.
Having focused on the Golden Boot contenders in my last article, the teams I covered in this article encompasses a “best of the rest” approach to finding players well-placed for successful tournaments. The criterion for the selection process differs on a team-to-team basis, with playing time, career performances, and recent trends among the top indicators for isolating my favorite targets.
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Top Italy Goalscorer – Lorenzo Insigne (+550)
Four attackers can take the lead for Italy. Ciro Immobile (+188) is the frontrunner, with the 31-year-old expected to edge Andrea Belotti for the center-forward spot. Lorenzo Insigne (+550) will be on the left wing, while Federico Chiesa (+1000) and Dominico Berardi (+1000) compete for a place on the right wing. The odds are appealing for both players, and Berardi is the guy I believe should start having scored on each of his last four appearances, yet the margin is not large enough to say Chiesa is out of the picture. The lack of confidence in terms of how many minutes each will see has me avoiding them.
Immobile has an excellent domestic scoring record with 150 goals in 219 Serie A matches for Lazio over the last five seasons. During recent World Cup qualification matches, the 31-year-old scored against Northern Ireland and Lithuania. He also provided a goal and an assist in the warm-up game against the Czech Republic. Overall, though, he has not replicated his form on the international stage. Immobile has 13 goals in 46 appearances and is yet to score at a major tournament for the Azzuri.
For me, Insigne is the best. The left-winger has a firm grasp on a starting spot, and he is coming off the best season of his career for Napoli. Insigne scored 19 goals in 35 Serie A appearances and averaged 4.1 shots per game. The domestic output and form shown in qualification by the 30-year-old are high enough for me to overlook his career tally of eight goals in 41 international matches. Insigne produced three goals in four games during qualification and has averaged 3.8 shots and 1.6 shots on target in his last ten matches in all international competitions. He was on target in the 4-0 win over the Czech Republic last week and has assisted in five straight games ahead of the tournament.
Top Switzerland Goalscorer – Xherdan Shaqiri (+800)
The Rossocrociati will come into Euro 2020 for their third-straight major tournament coached by Vladimir Petkovic. Petkovic guided them to the round of 16 stages of Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup, but the Swizz crashed out on penalties on both occasions. Switzerland’s strength will once again be their defense, not their attack. They scored three goals in four games at Euro 2016 and five goals in four games at the 2018 World Cup, so whoever ends up being the top scorer could likely achieve the feat with two goals.
Switzerland finished top in their qualification group, but their path to the tournament was not as smooth as it should have been. In an easy group, they produced 19 goals, and ten came across two matches against Gibraltar. The scoring was dispersed evenly throughout the teamsheet. Fifteen different players found the back of the net, and only three scored multiple times, including Cedric Itten, who did not make the final 26-man squad.
Forward Haris Seferovic has the shortest odds at +300. Seferovic has scored 21 goals in 74 international appearances and nine in his last 20, the most among all Swizz players. Mario Gavranovic is second at +600 after being the top scorer in qualification with four goals in seven appearances and scored a hat trick in the 7-0 rout of Liechtenstein last week. Gavranovic has done enough to lead the 3-4-1-2 formation alongside Seferovic, yet Breel Embolo (+1000) got the nod in the biggest warm-up test against the United States. The expectation that the top scorer could be a player with just two goals is why I would consider backing Xherdan Shaqiri. Shaqiri remains one of the most important players for the Swizz despite his role as a rotation player for Liverpool. Shaq has scored in each of the last three major tournaments and was the joint-top scorer at the 2018 World Cup. His role as a set-piece taker makes his price even more appealing.
Top Denmark Goalscorer – Yussuf Poulsen (+1000)
Denmark reached the tournament with a second-place finish in their qualification group. The Danes are a solid defensive team lead by a trio of established midfielders. The issue for them has been the lack of a clinically consistent striker. The center forward position in coach Kasper Hjulmand’s 4-3-3 system will go to either Kasper Dolberg or Jonas Wind, a pair of players in their first major tournament as a critical piece. We do not know who will get the nod come to the first group stage match, which is why both players are joint-second on the odds list at +400.
I am a massive fan of Dolberg and would love to see him finally get a chance to prove his ability at a major tournament. The issue, though, is the recent emergence of Wind. The 22-year-old scored 15 goals in 28 appearances for Copenhagen and finished as the joint second top goalscorer in the Danish Superliga this season. Wind has had a great start to his international career, with three goals in six appearances since his debut last October.
Christian Eriksen, who has the shortest odds at +300, was the leading scorer in qualification with five goals in seven appearances. The Danish star is by far the most influential part of the team. The presence of two strong holding midfielders in Pierre-Emile Højbjerg and Thomas Delany allows Eriksen to operate as a free-moving attacker underneath the front three. His freedom to move as he pleases boosts an already high level of goal potential thanks to his role as a set-piece and penalty taker. Although I have no problem with backing the Denmark captain, I think there is a better value found in a dice roll on Yussuf Poulsen at +1000.
I was surprised Poulsen’s odds were the longest among the four potential starting forwards. It probably has something to do with the fact he has failed to hit double-digits in goals during each of the last two seasons for RB Leipzig. A role reduction for RB Leipzig in the previous two terms is not a concern for me since Poulsen remains a nailed-on starter for Denmark, with 54 appearances since his debut in 2014. Poulsen could be given a run as the lone striker if the formation changes, so taking a chance on him at his current odds is a play to consider. He put a positive shift upfront as the lone striker and scored to help secure a 1-1 draw with Germany in last week’s warm-up match. He twice created chances in the box before making his third count, putting away a well-taken finish after running onto an Eriksen ball from deep.
Top Croatia Goalscorer – Ivan Perisic (+450)
The 2018 World Cup finalists qualified directly for Euro 2020 after winning their qualification group. Still, Zlatko Dalic’s squad has endured a dip in form in the build-up to the tournament. Croatia claimed just a single victory in six matches during the UEFA Nationals League and went winless in their warm-up friendlies, with a 1-1 draw with Armenia and 1-0 lost at the hands of Belgium. Although Croatia will be heavy favorites to advance alongside England from Group D, a deep run in the tournament is a hard sell, in my opinion.
Andrej Kramaric has been handed the first-choice center-forward role formerly held by Mario Mandzukic and is the leading candidate at +400. Bruno Petkovic (+450) has six goals in nine appearances for Croatia since his debut in 2019, but the striker did not grasp his chance when he led the line on Sunday against Belgium. Ivan Perisic (+450) and Ante Rebic (+750) will be on top options out wide, while Nikola Vlasic (+900) is the man in attacking midfield. Finally, Luka Modric (+700) will pull strings from central midfield.
Kramaric has the edge as the frontman in the wake of a career year for Hoffenheim. The 29-year-old scored 20 goals in 26 Bundesliga starts and ended the season on a hot streak, bagging a goal in each of his final five matches. Kramaric was the joint-fourth highest goalscorer in the league, ranking joint-third in shots (93) and fifth in shots on target (40), in his fifth-straight double-digit goal term in the German top-flight. He has 14 goals in 54 appearances for Croatia, but I am a little skeptical since he has just three in 15 matches since Mandzukic retired.
If you are looking for longer odds, then Vlasic is a sneaky shout. The 23-year-old has been the leading scorer for CSKA Moscow in each of the last two seasons, hitting 23 goals in 56 league appearances. Vlasic scored three goals in five Euro qualification matches and found the back of the net against Sweden and France in the UEFA Nations League A.
Without a clear-cut favorite to be the top goalscorer, the player in focus for me is Perisic. The veteran is the leading active goalscorer for Croatia, with 28 goals in 101 appearances. He scored three goals in six Euro qualification matches and was Croatia’s top goalscorer in three successive major tournaments. He scored two at the 2014 World Cup, two at Euro 2016, and three at the 2018 World Cup, including one against England. In addition to his team-high two goals in the last three matches, Perisic’s career record makes him a strong candidate to be the top scorer for Croatia once again.
Top Scotland Goalscorer – John McGinn (+550)
Scotland have drawn three higher-quality teams in their group. With matches against the Czech Republic, England, and Croatia, coach Steve Clarke will use a pragmatic approach in the group stage. Clarke has used a 5-3-2 and 4-3-3 system at times during qualification to the Euro 2020, and he will likely rotate his formation based on the opponents. Qualification as one of the third-place teams will be a real possibility if they win their opening match against the Czech Republic, a team Scotland beat twice in UEFA Nations League B play during 2020. A low goal total for the Scots during the group stage and the absence of a standout goal-threat makes the challenge for the top goalscorer spot an open-ended competition.
Che Adams leads the list at +280 after a solid nine-goal campaign for Southampton. The 24-year-old has enjoyed a hot start to his career on the international stage. Adams was the highest-scoring Scottish player among the expected starters across all first leagues during the 2020/21 season and found the back of the net in each of his last two starts, scoring against the Faroe Islands and Luxembourg. While he has been efficient for his country, a 16 percent conversation rate in the Premier League this season is a concern for me.
In turn, I see John McGinn as a better choice at +550. A versatile midfielder who flourishes in a more attack-focused role for his nation, McGinn is arguably the most crucial player for the Scots. The 26-year-old was the top goalscorer and shooter during their qualification run with seven goals on 21 shots in nine appearances, and his ten goals in 33 career appearances make him the top scorer in the current squad. Expect McGinn to be the most active shooter when the dust settles on Scotland’s tournament, with his role making him the most advanced midfielder regardless of the formations used.
Top Spain Goalscorer - Ferran Torres (+400)
This will be the first European Championships for a new generation of Spanish stars. No Real Madrid players made the final squad, with Sergio Ramos, Dani Carvajal, and Marcos Asensio all overlooked. In-form players such as Iago Aspas, who had 14 goals and 15 assists, did not get the final nod. Contributors from the golden era of Spanish football remain, but most players set to be essential for coach Luiz Enrique’s are names yet to showcase themselves at a major tournament.
Spain cruised through qualification with an unbeaten record and finished with the third-best goal difference across all qualification groups. The questions for Spain revolve around team selection, especially at the attacking positions, not whether there is enough talent to put together a deep run in the tournament. Álvaro Morata (+250) and Gerard Moreno (+600) would be contenders for the top goalscorer spot if Spain played a traditional two-forward system. Enrique will likely choose some variation of a 4-3-3 system, which means one of the strikers will need to settle for an impact role off the bench.
Morata has a solid international scoring record with 19 goals in 39 appearances and was the top goalscorer for Spain at Euro 2016 with three goals. Although Morata will likely start the first group stage match, I do not expect him to start all three. Moreno scored a career-best 23 goals in 33 La Liga appearances for Villareal this season and an additional seven in nine starts in the Europa League, including one in the final. Moreno had 30 goals and 12 assists in all competitions, while Morata had 20 goals and 11 assists for Juventus.
The player that strikes me as the best bet to be Spain’s top scorer is Ferran Torres at +400. The 21-year-old scored 19 goals in 46 appearances for club and country during the 2020/21 season. Torres has made a great start to his international career by scoring six goals in ten appearances, including five in his last four starts. The winger also scored five times across his last four starts for Manchester City to end his first season in the Premier League on a high note. I would also consider backing him to be crowned the UEFA Best Young Player at the Tournament at +900.
Top German Goalscorer - Serge Gnabry (+250)
Germany have reached the finals in all of their three European Championships with coach Joachim Low at the helm. Die Mannschaft will need to navigate a brutal Group F to keep their streak intact, drawn alongside France, Portugal, and Hungary. Germany remain one of the strongest teams in Europe. Still, a 6-0 drumming from Spain in November and a 2-1 defeat by North Macedonia have triggered questions about the integrity of their defense.
The defensive issues are a concern, but their depth on the attack and elite options in midfield should be enough to see them through to the knockout stage. Thomas Muller had an electric season with 18 assists, and Toni Kroos is the best passer in world football. Joshua Kimmich and İlkay Gundogan round out arguably the most robust midfield in the entire tournament. The luxury of four proven forwards, each with unique skillsets, also allows Low to tinker on a match-to-match basis.
Kai Havertz (+800) and Timo Werner (+325) are flying high after helping Chelsea win the Champions League title. Havertz offers hold-up play and the ability to drop deep, while Werner provides pace and a relentless work rate on both sides of the ball. Werner is the only forward with experience at a major tournament, having started all three matches during the disastrous 2018 World Cup. Meanwhile, Leroy Sané (+800) will undoubtedly have a role to play. He may need to settle for a role off the bench, but he should feature in each match in some capacity.
Serge Gnabry (+250) has been close to automatic since making his debut with 14 goals in 19 international starts, and the Bayern Munich attacker led Germany in all the key offensive categories during qualification. He bagged seven goals in six appearances and racked up 26 shots and 11 shots on target. Gnabry’s ability to play in all the formations Low uses, in addition to his clinical scoring record, makes him the leader to top the charts for Germany.
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