Premier League Matchday 14 marks the start of the double matchday weeks, meaning we will have double the EPL action to wager on each week. A quick look at the top of table we have three of the hottest clubs in football. Chelsea hold a one-point lead over Manchester City and a two-point lead over Liverpool. The difference from first to fifth is just seven points, meaning all teams would be wise to focus just as hard with two thirds of the season left.
It’s an exciting time for soccer handicappers. With more matches each week we can be more and more selective in deciding how we attack each day. All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook:
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Watford vs Chelsea (Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Three-way moneyline: Watford (+900) | Draw (+450) | Chelsea (-350)
I often try and stay away from goal lines without push protection. The most common score line in the EPL is 1-1, so chances are much slimer when looking for a team to win by two or more goals. With that being said, I will be taking the fishiest Chelsea line that I have bet all season. Generally when it stinks like a fish, I throw it out. However, I like the statistical backing behind this play.
Defense has been the issue with Watford this season. Sitting 16th on the table, they have allowed the third most goals in the EPL. Allowing opposing teams great goal scoring opportunities has been a big problem. They have the highest xGA in the EPL and a -0.6 xGD/90. Wednesday they are going against one of the best defensive teams in soccer. It’s never a good combination when you are leaky on your end and up against a talented defensive side on the other.
Chelsea are number one on the table and number two in xGA behind Manchester City. They have the second highest goal differential and Thomas Tuchel has instilled one of the best defensive tactics possible. I am not worried about the home and road splits. If you look, Watford are still the worst in x GD/90 in the EPL and Chelsea are still top three.
Injuries have plagued both teams. Romelo Lukaku is prorbably the biggest question mark. Mixed reports have him either fully fit or needing to come off the bench. Should Lukaku not get the nod, I would consider backing Kai Havertz in the anytime scorer market. Honestly, if Lukaku starts I would look for Havertz “anytime scorer or assist” or just back anytime assist.
Despite the injuries on the Chelsea side, Watford are the club with the biggest injury problem as Emmanuel Dennis will likely be sidelined for this contest with an ankle/foot injury. Dennis has been in a good run of form recently. He has been the creator of most of the Watford offense. With or without him, I wouldn’t be surprised if Chelsea kept a clean sheet. They have eight clean sheets, with 83% of them coming on the road. Clean sheet or not, I like them to win this game by at least two goals. I am backing Asian handicap: Chelsea -1.5 (-115).
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