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Last weekend fans marched back into Premier League stadiums for the first time in 14 months. It was a welcomed sight to see the excited faces as they cheered their clubs on. On the final day of the season, there still are many meaningful fixtures to be played.
This week I’ll break down the Premier League action from a betting perspective, digging through information pertinent to bettors and offering my take on particular matchups. There are two games with huge implications that have my attention. (all odds via PointsBet Sportsbook):
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Liverpool vs Crystal Palace (Sunday, 11 a.m. ET):
Three-way Moneyline: Liverpool (-667) | Draw (+700) | Crystal Palace (+1400)
Goal Wagers: Liverpool o1.5 Goals (-556) | Under 1.5 (+330)
Liverpool welcome fans back into Anfield in a must win fixture with Crystal Palace. For Jurgen Klopp and company, this match has the potential to make or break their season. They currently are slotted in the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot but tied in points with Leicester City. Should they lose or draw, and Leicester City pick up the win against Tottenham their Champions League hopes will be crushed. In the eyes of many, a failure to qualify for Champions League is a failure on the season.
Liverpool are the captains of their own fate and are fortunate to face an opponent they shouldn’t have any trouble with. Liverpool have played well in their last five fixtures, winning four of their last five. Their Champions League hopes were kept alive Sunday with a brilliant go-ahead header by goalkeeper Alisson Becker in the 95th minute.
Liverpool have done well to put themselves in opportune goal scoring positions. Their biggest problem on the season has been their inability to convert quality looks. With their performance in their last four fixtures, it seems the wall has been removed from the front of the net. They have scored 2.75 goals per contest over their four-game win streak.
An angle I am looking at is Liverpool’s team total over 1.5. With fans entering the stadium for the first time in over a year and the need to secure all three points, Liverpool should be flying and looking to score often. Despite Crystal Palace’s forgettable season and the recent loss of Eberechi Eze, Crystal Palace still have the offensive firepower to keep themselves in this game. With the juicy nature of this wager, I will have to pair it with another bet that I am eyeing this weekend.
Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion (Sunday, 11 a.m. ET):
Three-way Moneyline: Arsenal (-167) | Draw (+320) | Brighton & Hove Albion (+400)
Mikel Arteta has an opportunity to salvage the season with win over Brighton and a loss or draw by both Tottenham and Everton. They currently are in the ninth spot just one point behind both Tottenham and Everton. Whoever finishes in that seventh spot, has a chance to chance European silverware.
Arsenal have quietly had a very stellar month of May winning all four Premier League fixtures. They even traveled to Stamford Bridge and defeated the Champions League finalists, Chelsea.
During this four-game winning streak they have outscored their opponents nine to two, while collecting two clean sheets. Arsenal are finally healthy and are putting the pieces together at the most important time.
Arsenal finishing in the last Europa League qualification spot is still in question, but they should look to perform well to put the pressure on Tottenham and Everton.
Their opponents will not make qualification easy on them. Brighton might be one of the hardest teams to get a gauge on. Some weeks they look like world beaters and others they are losing and getting shutout to teams like Sheffield United.
In Brighton’s latest fixture, they looked poor while playing up a man since the 10th minute. Around the 72nd minute is when they finally turned it on and gave their fans something to celebrate.
Arsenal own the head to head victory over Brighton and should look to complete the season sweep. The current odds of -167 are a bit too juicy for me to play alone. Since I am a big fan of Liverpool’s team total over 1.5, I will parlay the two together to get odds of (-113).
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