With the Premier League and other top leagues taking time away for international break, we must focus our attention on the World Cup Qualifiers. With seven fixtures on the slate for Saturday, we have identified two matches that provide value. Plenty of the top-rated teams are firmly sitting at the top of their respective groups. For many, it’s important that they get points when they can while keeping their teams fit and healthy. All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook:
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Belgium vs Estonia (Saturday, 2:46 p.m. ET):
Three-way Moneyline: Belgium (-3334) | Draw (+1400) | Estonia (+5000)
Last month Belgium suffered an unfortunate fate losing in the semi-finals of the Nations League to France then losing in the third-place match against Italy. For them a home match against Estonia is exactly what the doctor ordered. Belgium are unbeaten in their last 14 home matches and play an Estonia side who are currently fourth on the table and have earned just four points of a possible 18.
Unfortunately for Belgium they are entering this contest without the services of their star forward Romelo Lukaku. He’s not the only one out for Roberto Martínez’ club. They will also be without the services of Mitchy Batshuayi, Youri Tielemans, Jeremy Doku, Thomas Vermaelen and Toby Alderweireld. Likely forcing Martinez’ hand to rotate a few players.
It’s always unfortunate when you lose your top goal contributor. However, I still think there’s value in backing goals in this contest. An angle that has caught my attention is the first half over. Belgium is a side who have scored more goals in the first half compared to the second half in this season. Even without the services of Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne and company still pose a strong threat to attack Estonia’s goal.
Belgium have scored 21 goals in this campaign and the goals on both sides have plentiful. The bet I am backing is Half-time total goals over 1.5 (-125). If you want to add a bit more value to the bet, you can back half-time home team total goals over 1.5 (+105). This total has hit in four of six in qualification for Belgium. No better way to shake off two ugly defeats by scoring early and often against a team who is on the road and has let in 16 goals through six and have seen 11 goals scored in the first half.
Montenegro vs Netherlands (Saturday, 2:45 p.m. ET)
Three-way Moneyline: Montenegro (+1000) | Draw (+450) | Netherlands (-375)
Netherlands seem to be adjusting well to their new manager, Louis Van Gaal. They have won four of their last five and lead Group G by two points. With Norway and Turkey firmly on their heels, they know there is no time to sit back and relax. Fresh their 6-nil victory over Gibraltar, they look to continue to hold the top spot.
Prior to the replacement of Frank De Boer, there was no surprise that Netherlands had a very talented team. The construction of their team makes backing goals an option regardless of the opponent. Through eight WCQ matches, they lead the field in in goals score per match at 3.63. The Montenegro side they are playing has been on the better side defensively with conceding just 1.38 goals per match. However, I am trusting Netherlands’ goal scoring capabilities. Netherlands will likely carry the total in this match up, yet Montenegro are still averaging 1.38 goals scored per match.
Montenegro have a solid defense, but the offensive firepower from Netherlands should see this total go over 2.5 goals. If we look at the stats between the two teams, both are seeing an average over 2.5 goals per matches this season. For Netherlands their matches are seeing 4.38 goals per match and Montenegro are seeing 2.78 goals per match. For those reasons, I will be backing over 2.5 goals (-145).
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