French Open Wake ‘n Cash Day 13: Djokovic with the Upset
Aryna Sabalenka pulled an Ons Jabeur earlier today snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Sabalenka had match point up 5-2 in the third set against Karolina Muchova. She proceeded to lose that match point and 19 of the final 23 points and ultimately, her semifinal match to the unseeded Muchova.
Muchova will now take on the top seed and defending champion, Iga Swiatek, who ended the surprising run of 14th-seeded Beatriz Haddid Maia in straight sets (6-2, 7-6). Saturday at 9A ET, Swiatek (-750) is the heavy favorite to claim her third French Open and the fifth Grand Slam title of her career against Muchova (+500).
On the men’s side of the draw, all eyes are on the semifinal match-up featuring top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz and the third seed, Novak Djokovic. The young Spaniard (-210) is a heavy favorite heading into the match against the Serbian (+170). The second men’s semifinal pits Casper Ruud (-105) against Alexander Zverev (-115).
As mentioned, though, all eyes and plenty of money is especially interested in that first semi pitting Alcaraz against Djokovic. Both Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) and Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) are involved. Each likes the wily veteran Djokovic. Scroll down for their explanations.
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We are tracking their plays in this space daily. Lets cash some tickets.
Friday, June 9, 2023
Novak Djokovic ML (+175) vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Dinsick: “The matchup that the tennis world has been anticipating for over a year is finally upon us as two truly elite players finally meet in the best of five format while both players are in their prime, albeit at opposite ends of their careers. Carlos Alcaraz is still on the ascendance and clearly has the skill and stamina to warrant favorite consideration. However, the gulf in experience between these players is the neutralizing factor as it takes time and reps to learn how to solve your opponent when they have elite game as Novak Djokovic does. Hoping to avoid a grueling five-set match here as the longer this goes the more likely the advantage tips towards the youth but at +175 and with a narrow margin between these players, I’m on Djokovic to win, predicting 3-1 in favor of Nole. Best of Luck!”
Novak Djokovic ML (+165) vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Croucher: “Alcaraz has the highest level of anyone right now but it’s no guarantee he reaches it against Djokovic, who is coming off a destruction of Khachanov after a shaky start. This is closer to a coin flip than the market implies.”
(Read More: Swiatek Rolls On)
Thursday, June 8, 2023
Iga Swiatek -6.5 games (+105) vs. Beatrix Haddad Maia (LOSS)
Dinsick: “I laid the six and a half games. Iga I think will win comfortably over Beatrix Haddad Maia. She’s a six and a half game favorite at +105 right now. I think that’s worth a play. Beatrix Haddad Maia congratulations for making it this far and a slam that’s off of your specific strength in terms of surface but having played three almost four hours of tennis two days ago and then another two and a half hour physical match today, I think she is in for a rude awakening as Iga brings her peak stuff so that she can save some of her bullets for the Final and I think Iga gets it done in straights. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a 6-0, 6-1 in there so laying the 6.5 games is my most straightforward approach for Wake ‘n Cash.”
Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Ons Jabeur in Straight Sets (-109) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia (LOSS)
Dinsick: “Despite the incredible run of form Beatriz Haddad Maia has shown this fortnight, her 3+ hour Round 4 match will handicap her in this contest especially considering her opponent. Ons Jabeur’s unique stylings and approach are a tall order for Haddad Maia. The Tunisian star, Jabeur, is producing Top 3 level tennis on the clay this season and will likely clinch her first Roland Garros semifinal in style. I expect this match to unfold similar to their meeting in Stuttgart back in April. The best angle of attack is Jabeur in straight sets which has a median outcome of 58% by my projections compared to the market price of -109. Best of luck!”
Casper Ruud -1.5 games (-110) vs. Holger Rune (WIN)
Croucher: “Rune was lucky to escape his R16 match against Cerundulo and seems to be playing hurt. He also completely gave up on the fourth set against Cerundulo, which bodes well for Ruud’s games handicap, should he go up early in a set. Ruud is the more rested and reliable player in this matchup.”
Tuesday, June 6, 2023
Novak Djokovic in Straight Sets (-136) vs. Karen Khachanov (LOSS)
Dinsick: “I have Djokovic coming through cleanly against Karen Khachanov. Realistically, the form that you’re seeing Djokovic find particularly kind of inspired by a very, very competitive head-to-head against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, I think its going to be enough to get him through in straight sets here. Djokovic coming through 3-0 and how that trickles into some of the derivatives would first and foremost point me in the direction of the Under. Looking at right now it’s down to 32½. I played some 33. I think 32½ is also bettable. I think this is a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 type of match where Djokovic comes through unscathed and gets to have a little extended rest as Alcaraz and Tsitsipas play in the night session. Djokovic with a little bit of incentive to get it done cleanly and give himself some time to prepare for what is going to be a war in the semifinals.
Gregor Dimitrov +4.5 games (-125) vs. Alexander Zverev (LOSS)
I’m still not convinced Zverev is all the way back. Meanwhile, Dimitrov is just on fire. He hasn’t lost a set so far. Just completely disposed of Outmayer who’s coming off a win over Jannik Sinner. Dimitrov’s form leading up on clay is excellent as well. He took a set off Djokovic in Rome. He beat Taylor Fritz. He’s gotten some good scalps. So, I think that Dimitrov should be an underdog in the match, but at the same time, I think it should be closer to pick. I took some Dimitrov at 15/1 to reach the Final. He’s probably drawing dead once he gets to the final, but I think that the bottom half of the draw is so wide open that he can do some damage. He’s playing as well as anyone in that bottom half.
Monday, June 5, 2023
Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo OVER 2.5 sets (WIN)
Dinsick: “Monday on the Women’s side looks like a pretty chalky day with the exception of one very close call between savvy veterans Beatriz Haddad Maia and Sara Sorribes Tormo. This will be the fifth head-to-head for these players and margins are very narrow in these conditions making the underdog price of +120 on Sorribes Tormo appealing. The best look however is o2.5 sets at +150 by my numbers which suggest this match going to a decider 45% of the time. Best of luck!”
Nicolas Jarry ML (+172) vs. Casper Ruud (LOSS)
Croucher: “Ruud is being inflated by his 2022 results but his recent form is shaky. Jarry is in remarkable form, including beating Ruud two weeks ago on clay in Geneva enroute to winning the tournament.”
Sunday, June 4, 2023
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti OVER 33.5 Total Games (-125) (LOSS)
Dinsick: “The premier matchup on Sunday features two of the most promising young players on the Men’s tour in Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti. Alcaraz, the favorite to win at Roland Garros, is the presumptive heir to the King of Clay and needs no introduction but he takes on a very tough challenger in Round 4 Sunday. Musetti burst onto the scene in 2022 in Hamburg (clay) where he made his first Final on Tour facing none other than Carlos Alcaraz, defeating him in a best of three set match, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 as a +675 underdog. He is absolutely live to pull off the upset again in France. The narrow margin between these two players and the lack of experience for each at the best of five level makes this the perfect opportunity to play the over as it will take time for Alcaraz to solve Musetti (if he does). This looks likely to go at least 4 if not 5 sets; median total projected at 37. Best of luck!”
Saturday, June 3, 2023
Mirra Andreeva ML (+110) vs. Coco Gauff (LOSS)
Dinsick: “Andreeva opened up at around the +130 range. She’s had a lot of market support throughout qualifying here and through her run to this stage of the tournament. And so it was no surprise to see her shorten. Right now, she is +110 on the moneyline. The big question is, can a qualifier put it together against a former finalist here? And the answer for me is yes. The reasons are very simple. Coco Gauff is not playing anywhere close to the level of tennis she was playing at this tournament last year despite her getting to this stage of the tournament relatively unscathed. Her last match against Grabher she had a very, very tricky time holding serve particularly in the middle portion of that match. If she has anywhere close to that type of wobble, she’s going to find herself in a spot of bother against Mirra Andreeva who has a lot of the constitutional qualities of an Elena Rybakina. She is unflappable and unfazed. She doesn’t really understand that she shouldn’t be doing this at her age, in this type of setting which is dangerous when you have these younger players that just are doing it for the first time. They’re not gonna have the same mental baggage of “Well, I’ve been in this spot before and I’ve lost. Maybe it happens again.” To me that matters. Mirra Andreeva, I would give both the physical quality of her game and mental advantage over a Coco Gauff.”
Frances Tiafoe +4.5 games (-110) vs. Alexander Zverev (LOSS)
“I am going with our man Frances Tiafoe +4.5 games on the handicap against Alexander Zverev in tomorrow’s matchup at 2:30P Eastern. I am not entirely convinced by Zverev. I don’t think he’s all the way back yet. It was only a few weeks ago that he was getting beat by the great Christopher O’Connell on clay. Tiafoe’s had decent form on clay. I think that win in Houston now looks a little bit more impressive given some of the people that he beat on the way there and how they’ve performed on clay. Give me Frances Tiafoe.”
Friday, June 2, 2023
Novak Djokovic (-115) to defeat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Straight Sets (WIN)
Dinsick: “I got hooked yesterday. Rybakina hooked me. Six game margin for Rybakina against Noskova so I need a winner. I’m gonna go somewhat chalky here and I’m gonna take Novak Djokovic to win in straight sets against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. People kind of looked at this potential Round 3 match-up as the first spot you could see Djokovic get in a little bit of trouble. However, I think realistically what we saw from Djokovic last night against Fucsovics who was playing as well as I’ve ever seen Fucsovics play. Djokovic just absolutely ate him for dinner in sets two and three there. It was wild to see the level he was able to produce. I think that was exactly what he needed to start building some momentum to what ultimately will be a French Open title. And I think the market expects this to be competitive to the degree of ADF winning a set. I do not see it. Djokovic is even money to win three zero and I think that is the best way to attack this one.”
Elise Mertens +4.5 games (-135) vs. Jessica Pegula (WIN)
Croucher: “I’m going with my good friend, Elise Mertens +4.5 games on the handicap against our American friend Jessica Pegula. Pegula’s form has been a little bit scratchy coming into Roland Garros losing to a qualifier in Rome and a straight sets loss at Madrid to Kudermutova as well who didn’t cover herself in glory in Paris. So I think that Mertens is the kind of player who is just destined to lose 7-6, 6-4 to a slightly superior player but I think that she’s live on the money line at +210 as well to beat Pegula outright. I like the little buffer of plus 4.5 games on the handicap.
Thursday, June 1, 2023
Nicolas Jarry -1.5 games (-120) vs. Tommy Paul (WIN)
Croucher: “I’m gonna go with the big serving Chalayan and Nicolas Jerry minus one and a half games against your countrymen, Tommy Paul, Tommy Paul, not playing particularly well at the moment. He had a good hardcourt season, but on clay he’s coming off losses against guys like Brandon Nakashima in straight sets, losses to Garin and Andy Murray recently. He’s just not playing his best tennis. Meanwhile, Jarry is on an absolute tear coming off a win at Geneva beating guys like Casper Ruud, Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov so I think that he is just in better form at the moment and he’s rightfully favored.”
Linda Noskova +5.5 games (-101) vs. Elena Rybakina (LOSS)
Dinsick: “She (Noskova) is a former Junior Champion here at Roland Garros. My fair price here is -400 for Rybakina and then +400 for Noskova. So I’m gonna sprinkle a little bit of moneyline here on this Czech teenager. But the better bet for me is going to be +5.5 games. I got that at -101. I think this is a relatively tight contest. I don’t think Rybakina has the return game to really frustrate Noskova and this is going to potentially take three sets to decide and again Rybakina on upset alert for me. Let’s go new school but let’s get that +5.5 games home.”
Wednesday, May 31, 2023
Daria Kasatkina ML (+205) vs. Marketa Vondrousova (WIN)
Croucher: “Daria Kasatkina has been in fantastic form on clay and has some great wins and also playing some really good players close getting sets off – Jelena Ostapenko, Kudermetova as well. So, I think that Kasatkina despite grave concerns about her serve. I think that this should be close to plus 150 against Vondrousova who’s also playing really well.”
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Stephanos Tsitsipas OVER 33.5 total games (-110) (LOSS)
Dinsick: “I have this going four or five sets over 50% of the time, and with the total sitting at 33½ that makes for a decent edge because we can get there with a couple tie breaks and we can get it with this match going four or five sets. I think realistically Tsitsipas takes this 3-1 or 3-2, but it’s going to be a lot closer of a match than the market currently makes it. So give me over 33½ games.”
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Veronika Kudermetova (+1800) to win her quarter of the draw (LOSS)
Dinsick: “Kudermetova at 18:1 is crazy…She’s the second-best player in this draw. She’s on the weaker side. So basically, the way this works is Iga (Swiatek) and Krejcikova by market are your two highest rated players (in this quarter)…They run into each other in Round Four. Only one of them will make the quarterfinal, presumptively Iga. Kudermetova gets to go through a softer path. Coco Gauff has taken an enormous step backwards this season relative to last year in terms of quality of play on the same surface against weaker competition. She’s not performing as well. Realistically, she is the bet against in the bottom half of Q1. Kudermetova comes through. She did not fare well at all in the semifinals in Madrid against Iga. I think Iga beat her 6-1, 6-1…It wasn’t even that competitive. It was an absolute white washing. Realistically, you’re hoping Krejcikova either does damage to Iga or just outright upsets Iga or maybe Iga has a little bit of a hamstring or thigh thing going on that, you know some how she does not make it to that stage of the tournament. But whatever the case is Kudermetova should be closer to 5:1 to get out of this quarter by my numbers. 18:1 to one is an absolute steal. It’s a long shot. It’s probably not going to win, but I think you have to have that in pocket.”
Monday, May 29, 2023
Ons Jabeur (+600) to win her quarter of the draw (LOSS)
Dinsick: “If she finds fitness over the balance of the first week and change here, she probably comes out of q2, even against the idea of going against Elena Rybakina. She’s a much better clay player, so if she can get fit, she’s going to be a bet that you will want to have in pocket. I have not fired yet in full transparency, but my numbers say don’t be an idiot. Go bet that quarter.”
Taylor Fritz (+1000) to win his quarter of the draw (LOSS)
Dinsick: “He’s been playing well on clay this year. Not well enough to say that he should be close to the favorite price in this market, but definitely closer to the favorite than 10:1. I like his spot on the draw. I like his head-to-head win against Rune in Miami this year. This to me feels actually feels like there’s a realistic chance he wins. Fritz plays great at the best of five level. Let’s go with Taylor Fritz at 10:1 (to win his quarter of the draw).”
Sunday, May 28, 2023
Novak Djokovic to win the French Open (+250)
Dinsick: “At this point, I think the only bet in the outright markets on the men’s side is Novak Djokovic. Its not the sexiest bet but my numbers show the odds for Alcaraz and Djokovic should be reversed. The degree of the difference in experience in best of five tennis between Djokovic and everyone else outside of Medvedev maybe is just spectacular. Djokovic has played 425 Best to five matches in his career. He has a 90% winning percentage in those matches. Carlos Alvarez, in contrast…he’s played 31 best of five tennis matches in his career.”
Aryna Sabalenka (+600) to win the French Open (LOSS)
Croucher: “Sabalenka is only going to have to face one of the Rybakina or Swiatek due to the way the draw fell. As a result, if she’s fresher and if she’s a little sharper than whomever survives the other half of the draw maybe gives her a little bit more of a leveling effect in the final itself. I think Sabalenka is your pre flop play. PointsBet has her price at +600 and I see the fair price at +525.”
Bet the EDGE is your home for the sharpest daily breakdown of this year’s French Open.
Enjoy the tournament and enjoy the sweat.