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Intro:
The top two teams in the FIBA World Men’s Rankings face off in a quarterfinal game between USA and Spain. USA is favored by 12 points at PointsBet Sportsbook, up from an opening spread of 11.5, and the total sits at 180. This Men’s Olympic Basketball game is set for 12:40 am ET on Tuesday, and I see value in betting both the side and total for Team USA’s quarterfinals match.
Spread:
The United States went 2-1 in the group stage of the Tokyo Olympics, as their opening game vs. France was their only loss. The squad won their last two games over Iran and the Czech Republic by a combined 89 points since adding Jrue Holiday to the starting lineup. Team USA should be able to thrive against Spain in transition, as they average 24.3 points off turnovers and 23.3 fast-break points in Tokyo, more than Spain’s 11.3 points off turnovers and 9.7 fast-break points.
USA beat Spain by seven points in their last exhibition matchup but played without Holiday, Devin Booker and Khris Middleton. Holiday has been among Team USA’s most important players in Tokyo, providing the team with a player who can guard the opposition’s best perimeter player while also being capable of switching onto post players. Kevin Durant passed Carmelo Anthony as Team USA’s all-time leading Olympic scorer in their win over the Czech Republic, and he looks to continue his hot streak against a Spanish team that held him to only 14 points in their exhibition game.
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Spain:
Spain finished the group stage 2-1 after an eight point loss to Slovenia despite only 12 points from Luka Doncic in their last game. Spain won their first two games by 81-71 over Argentina and 88-77 against Japan. In their exhibition matchup, Spain and USA combined to score only 159 total points, and both defenses should play even better in the quarterfinals. Part of the reason for Durant’s limited scoring output in that exhibition was the physical defense of Usman Garuba. Garuba was selected 23rd by the Houston Rockets in the NBA Draft last week after making a name for himself as one of the best international defenders in the world with Real Madrid. The teenager spent time guarding Kevin Durant in the exhibition and made life difficult for USA’s star forward.
The addition of Holiday will make life difficult for Spain’s star guard Ricky Rubio, who scored a game-high 23 points in the exhibition and is putting up 21.3 points per game in Tokyo so far. Rubio is Spain’s only player who averaged double-digit points in the group stage with veteran post players Marc and Pau Gasol showing their age in the 2020 Olympics. USA should be able to limit a Spanish team that has been inconsistent from three in Tokyo, shooting only 35% from beyond the arc. Spain’s games in the group stage averaged 167 total points, well below the PointsBet Sportsbook total of 180 for this game.
Prediction:
My best bets for this Men’s Olympic Basketball quarterfinals matchup are to target Team USA on the spread and under the total of 180 points. Team USA should be able to use their athleticism to get fast-break opportunities as the game goes on against a slower Spain team filled with veterans. I also like the Under, as the last two matchups between the United States and Spain only averaged 158.5 points, and both teams should be focused on defense for this quarterfinal game. Team USA has been prone to slow starts in this tournament, so I will be targeting USA’s spread on live betting opportunities if they fall behind early, as well as their second half line if they’re locked in a close game.
EDGE:
USA -12
Under 180
