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Thursday’s slate of Men’s Olympic Basketball features all four teams from Group C in action. Let’s look at each team to find value in the odds with my best bets for Thursday’s, July 29th, action.
Game 1: Slovenia vs Japan (12:40 AM East)
Slovenia and Japan kick off Thursday’s Olympic basketball games with a matchup at 12:40 am ET. The hosts are currently 19.5-point underdogs to Luka Doncic and Slovenia in this Group C battle. PointsBet currently has the total set at 182.5.
Slovenia:
Slovenia, ranked 16th in the FIBA Men’s World Rankings, is 1-0 in the country’s first Olympic appearance after a 118-100 win over Argentina on Monday. After a historic performance from Slovenian superstar Luka Doncic, the team has been hyped as potential contenders in Tokyo. Slovenia’s odds to win a gold medal moved from +1800 pre-tournament all the way down to +900 on PointsBet. Slovenia is now tied with France and Spain for the third-best gold medal odds and could put themselves in prime position to win Group C with a win over the hosts.
The team’s fast-paced offense is reliant on shots from long range but has enough shooters around Doncic to keep defenses honest and limit double-teams. Over half of Slovenia’s shot attempts came beyond the arc against Argentina after making 46% of their three-point attempts at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament. Slovenia will need their shooters to stay hot to survive any minutes without Doncic, as they paced Japan by 34 points in Doncic’s minutes but cut the lead by 16 points in the nine minutes he was off the court.
Doncic racked up 48 points, five assists and 11 rebounds in the win over Argentina while hitting a game-high six shots from long range. The Mavs’ young stud showed off his dominance early in his Olympic debut by putting up 17 points in the first quarter. His performance tied for the second-highest single-game points total in Olympic Basketball history. Doncic’s undefeated 14-0 record with the Slovenian National Team, including a 9-0 run to win the 2017 EuroBasket Championship and a 4-0 record at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament, further bolsters his resume as a global basketball superstar.
Vlatko Cancar, the only other current NBA player on Slovenia’s roster, scored 12 points in the victory over Argentina, while Mike Tobey racked up 11 points and a game-high 14 boards. Tobey made a brief NBA cameo with the Charlotte Hornets in 2016 and averaged 15 points and 7.5 rebounds during the Olympic Qualifying Tournament.
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Japan:
Japan is off to a promising start to their first Olympic appearance since 1976 despite the team’s 0-1 record. The host country suffered a loss to Spain in their first match of the group stage, but still covered as 19.5-point underdogs. The teams were tied in the second quarter before Spain locked in on defense to spur a 19-0 run, holding Japan scoreless for over four minutes and taking a 20-point lead into halftime. Japan shot slightly better in the second half, but only made 40.6% of their shots despite hitting 40.7% from deep.
The hosts are playing without the full home-court advantage of fans in the seats due to the COVID pandemic. Japan, ranked 42nd in FIBA Men’s World Rankings, is led by current NBA players Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe.
The best player for Japan is Rui Hachimura, a 23-year-old forward who became the first Japanese-born player to be a first round pick in the NBA Draft. In his first Olympic appearance, Hachimura put up 20 points and made four three pointers against Spain. Yuta Watanabe provides Japan with physical defense against opposing wings and will likely spend time trying to guard Doncic. Wantanabe, who spent last season with the Toronto Raptors, picked up an impressive five steals in their loss to Spain.
Prediction:
With two teams that rely heavily on the three-ball, the over could be in play at 182.5. However, I’ll be staying away from the total due to concerns about Japan’s offensive inconsistency. I think Doncic will stay hot and carry his team to another win. The 19.5 point full-game spread seems slightly inflated due to the hype around Slovenia, so I’m eyeing the first half spread for an edge on this Men’s Olympic Basketball game.
Edge: Slovenia 1H -11.5
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Game 2: Spain vs Argentina (8:00 am East)
In the second game of the day, two teams ranked in the top 5 of the FIBA Men’s World Rankings face off at 8:00 am ET. Spain is favored by 8.5 points over Argentina at PointsBet with a total set at 165.5.
Spain:
Spain is tied with Slovenia and France for the third-best gold medal odds and is second in the FIBA Men’s World Rankings due to their deep roster with big-game experience and chemistry. Even despite the loss of Juanacho Hernangomez due to his recovery from an injury, Spain had 10 players score points in their 88-77 win over Japan.
Spain has fared well against Argentina in international play, winning 8 of the last 10 Olympic or World Cup matchups, including the 2019 FIBA World Cup championship game. The Spanish frontcourt is led by the Gasol brothers, who both have extensive international and NBA experience. Not many teams have the size to match up with a double-Gasol frontcourt, especially with passing maestro Ricky Rubio running the offense. Rubio continues to excel in international play after winning MVP of the 2019 World Cup and led Spain with 20 points and 9 assists against Japan.
Argentina:
Since winning a gold medal for men’s basketball in the 2004 Olympics, Argentina has begun to relinquish their status as a global basketball powerhouse. Despite winning silver at the 2019 FIBA World Cup and placing fourth in the FIBA Men’s World Rankings, they lack the top-end talent to be true contenders. They struggled in the exhibition games, losing a tight match to Australia and two blowouts against the United States and Nigeria.
In their first game of the Olympics, the team’s defense was exposed and allowed Slovenia to put up 118 points. Argentina’s shooters were ice cold in the first half, missing 18 of their first 20 shots from beyond the arc to finish with an abysmal 16.1% mark from long range. The team has some offensive weapons, including former NBA player Luis Scola and current NBA guard Facundo Campazzo, but only one other starter scored double-digit points in the loss.
Campazzo is a two-time EuroLeague champion with Real Madrid and put up 23 points in Argentina’s loss to Slovenia. Scola, playing in his fifth career Olympics at the age of 41, led the team with 23 points but struggled defensively against Slovenia. While Scola moved into 4th place on the career points leaderboard at the Olympics, the big man’s declining speed and athleticism was on full display. Argentina also has two players who signed with NBA teams in the Knicks’ Luca Vildoza and Thunder’s Gabriel Deck.
Prediction:
While Campazzo is an exceptional passer and a scrappy defender, he will likely struggle to guard the 6’4” Rubio, who is listed as six inches taller than the Argentinian point guard. I think this mismatch, combined with Scola’s lack of athleticism in help defense, will open driving lanes for Rubio to either finish at the rim or get assists to open shooters. I think Spain should be able to cover the 8.5-point spread, but Argentina could pull off an upset if they improve their shooting numbers. My favorite bet for this Men’s Olympic Basketball game between Spain and Argentina is Ricky Rubio to exceed his prop for points or assists. The line is currently at 15.5 points (-113) and 6.5 assists (-120) on FanDuel Sportsbook, or 17.5 points and 7.5 assists (+105 each) at PointsBet.
EDGE: Ricky Rubio O6.5 assists -120
