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We’ve ditched the dirt and are on to grass season on the ATP and WTA tours. There are two small events happening right now in Europe that I’m seeing a ton of value in, and without further ado I’ll get into them now.
Benjamin Bonzi (+185) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (-239)
This is a little bit ridiculous in my eyes. Stefanos Tsitsipas hasn’t been a great player on grass over the course of his career, but it’s evident that he’s made considerable strides on the surface this season.
It’s not like it’s unheard of for a player to get better on grass — just look at Filip Krajinovic, who was able to go to a final last week after losing every main-draw grass court match he’s ever played. On top of that, it’s not unfathomable to think Tsitsipas — a player who has a massive serve and forehand — could be good on the turf, which favors power.
I have no choice but to lay the games here. Tsitsipas took out Bonzi in Halle last week, and despite the fact that he did not cover the spread there I think he will do so here. Having seen the Frenchman and having won some more matches since then, I think the Greek can win in two sets here. It also helps that these courts in Mallorca are playing a little slow.
Edge: Tsitsipas -2.5 Games
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Taylor Fritz (+100) vs. Alex De Minaur (-121)
As much as it pains me to say, I can’t see Fritz winning this match. He’s won his last two against De Minaur, but both of those victories were insanely close. This is where the Aussie will strike back.
De Minaur played an insane match on Thursday to beat Tommy Paul, and there really wasn’t much more the American could have done to win that contest. Fritz has already been fleeting on grass this year — and on all surfaces over the last month or so — so this one is an easy call for me.
De Minaur’s loss to Fritz at the US Open a couple of years ago was an incredibly tight one, and one which felt very close to tipping the Aussie’s way. His loss to Fritz this year at Indian Wells came in a third-set tiebreak. He’s been so close to breaking through, and I think here — on his best surface, playing some of the best tennis of his career — he goes out and gets him.
Edge: De Minaur (-121)
