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We’ve got two more tournaments on the ATP Tour to bet on this week, and I’ve got some ideas as to how we can make some money on Thursday morning. Let’s get into it.
Daniil Medvedev (-400) vs. Dominic Thiem (+295)
If you missed Dominic Thiem’s epic three-set win over Tommy Paul earlier this week, I recommend you drop everything and watch the highlights (or at least the last six games of the match). The former World No. 3 finally looks like himself again, and his body has finally caught up to his mind after months and months of rehab from a devastating wrist injury.
Something a lot more important, though, is that Thiem seems to have snapped out of the mental fog he was in ever since winning the US Open a couple of years ago. He experienced a huge slump immediately after which lasted months, and then came his wrist injury which would sideline him for almost an entire year.
Thiem had a confidence in his game I haven’t seen in some time, amping himself up while up break point before stealing away Paul’s chance to serve out their match. His fitness seems to be getting there as well, and I now no longer really have concerns about his ability to play multiple three-setters in a row.
All of this is to say that Thiem really should garner a bit more respect here. He’s 4-2 lifetime against Medvedev, and I think those two losses deserve huge asterisks. One came at the ATP Finals, which is at the end of the season and always produces weird results. Thiem had already won the tournament, and Medvedev had not, and I didn’t really feel as though he was playing at a very high level. The other loss was in Montreal years ago, and if you watched that match you would know Thiem was absolutely exhausted after playing a lot of tennis and hardly gave an effort.
This will be played in front of a raucous home crowd, which is an environment Medvedev never thrives in, and I think Thiem should at the very least grab a set here. I’ll be on him to win outright as well, considering how flat Medvedev has looked in recent months and with his recent retirement last week.
Edge: Thiem +1.5 Sets (+110)
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Brandon Nakashima (-130) vs. Stan Wawrinka (+105)
Stan Wawrinka will also be playing in front of a delirious home crowd in Switzerland, but I’m not really as confident in his ability to win this match as I am with Thiem against Medvedev.
Simply put, I think we are grossly overrating Wawrinka after his win over Casper Ruud. The Norwegian looks checked out these days and has not lost his last three matches, including one on a hardcourt to Jaume Munar and one to Yoshihito Nishioka the week prior. Wawrinka fed off the crowd energy, sure, but he also really didn’t need it.
Brandon Nakashima is playing some of the most solid tennis we’ve seen out of the strapping young lad in quite some time, striking the ball with power and precision. He came through a very tight match against David Goffin last match, and with the level the Belgian brought we should really be respecting that result a lot more.
Nakashima isn’t a very fun or exciting pick here, but he has established some form here in the last few months with a nice showing at the US Open, a title in San Diego and three wins in his last four matches. Wawrinka had lost three straight prior to his win over Ruud, including a retirement against Alexander Bublik just a few games in. He isn’t built to last in these rallies with Nakashima.
Edge: Nakashima -130
