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Well, we’re finally here. The final Grand Slam on the tennis calendar, the US Open, commences in Queens. Two stacked draws of men and women will take the court and vie for some life-changing money and ranking points, continuing with the third round on Saturday and taking us all the way into next Sunday.
Without further ado, let’s get into some picks.
Jenson Brooksby (+290) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (-400)
This will be a fascinating match of contrasting styles and one which has been a year in the making. On the one hand we have Jenson Brooksby, a master strategist, and on the other we have one of the most powerful, most ruthless players on tour in Carlos Alcaraz.
Brooksby has brought his level back to what we saw in 2021, when he quickly rose up the ranks and eventually reached the world’s top 30. His competition level has always been incredible and against a version of Alcaraz who has been relenting in recent months, I think he should be able to dig his teeth into this match.
Alcaraz struggled to hold and create offense against Federico Coria, and Brooksby will be a much better returner and much better defender. He simply doesn’t look as dominant as he did during the Sunshine Double, and I think Brooksby looks nearly identical to how he did then, when he was competing against some of the world’s best.
Brooksby should be able to take away the lethal power of Alcaraz and win backhand trades. He’s live to win this match.
Edge: Brooksby +5.5
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Diego Schwartzman (+165) vs. Frances Tiafoe (-209)
I can’t say enough about how poorly Diego Schwartzman has played at this tournament. He was getting rocked by Jack Sock for two sets before the American hurt his back and was forced to retire. Then, saved 16 break points against Alexei Popyrin and made over 40 unforced errors in a near-four hour match which lasted only three sets.
We’re not used to seeing Schwartzman make errors like this, so I don’t really think we should be holding him in high regard with a line like this. Popyrin was able to break down Schwartzman at the net many times over, but made some critical errors in crucial spots. Frances Tiafoe is going to be able to win more net points and will make fewer errors, and I don’t think this will be particularly close.
Tiafoe will capitalize on the chances Schwartzman gives him like Sock did, and unlike Popyrin. I have a ton of confidence in him taking this match so I’ll lay this short line.
Edge: Tiafoe -3.5
