It’s Week 9 of the WNBA season and we have a new contender for MVP behind Minnesota’s Napheesa Collier as Caitlin Clark continues to drop further out the race. For DPOY, A’ja Wilson‘s odds are even more tempting than ever, but is she the best bet?
MVP and DPOY dds are courtesy of DraftKings and subject to change. Rookie of the Year is still being offered on FanDuel and BetMGM as Paige Bueckers runs away with the award. Next week, I will cover Most Improved Player and Coach of the Year as Rookie of the Year is all but over.
WNBA MVP Ladder:
1. Napheesa Collier (-600)
2. Alyssa Thomas (+600)
3. Breanna Stewart (+2000)
Napheesa Collier (-600) continues her dominance in this market, but as Caitlin Clark (+3000) continues to drop out of the race due to too many missed games and recent performance, Alyssa Thomas (+600) has been the biggest beneficiary.
Thomas went from +5000 to +2500 to +600 over the last three weeks, so she is the hottest bet in this market, but the value has pretty much disappeared.
The recent movement is because of a 15-point, 15-assist and 10-rebound triple-double in a 30-point win versus Dallas. The next game, Thomas went for 29 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists, followed by another monster performance of 17 points, 11 assists, and 6 rebounds.
Thomas is balling right now, but the recent play is likely unsustainable. Breanna Stewart’s (+2000) odds have dropped because she has shot below 50% in five straight games and gone 3-of-17 from deep in that span. It’s still Collier’s award to lose and I’m not hedging.
WNBA DPOY Ladder:
1. A’ja Wilson (+250)
2. Gabby Williams (+400)
3. Alanna Smith (+500)
Napheesa Collier (+350) is technically second in terms of odds to win DPOY, but winning MVP and DPOY in the same season is very difficult to do. In fact, it’s only been done four times since 2007 (A’ja Wilson, Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie, Sheryl Swoopes).
Collier’s rise in this market is likely via the direct descent of A’ja Wilson (+250) and being the MVP favorite. Wilson missed a game after leaving in the second quarter against the Liberty, then returned for 34 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in a 104-102 win versus Golden State. While Wilson was amazing and so are her on-and-off the court defensive splits, the Aces still allowed 102 points with her back, which is concerning.
Gabby Williams (+400) is the only player in the league to average more than 2.0 steals per game (she averages 2.5), while Alanna Smith (+500) and Ezi Magbegor (+600) are two of three players to average at least 2.0 blocks per game (A’ja Wilson).
The DPOY market is a crap shoot right now. I will wait to have a concrete pick to make up for the 2 units I’ve already deployed amongst four long shot players who aren’t in the race.
WNBA ROY Ladder:
1. Paige Bueckers (-6000)
2. Sonia Citron (+3000)
3. Kiki Iriafen (+3000)
DraftKings shut down this market, while FanDuel and BetMGM still list odds for the race with Paige Bueckers between -5000 and -6000, while Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen are both +2500 or +3000.
All three of these rookies will be represented in the WNBA All-Star game, so they’ve had terrific seasons, but Bueckers already locked up this award. Bueckers scored at least 20 points in eight games this season and six of the past nine outings.
Vaughn Dalzell’s WNBA Futures Bets:
2 units: Stephanie White to win Coach of the Year (+115)
2 units: Minnesota Lynx to win Championship (+340)
2 units: A’ja Wilson to win MVP (+225)
2 units: Napheesa Collier to win MVP (+150)
0.5 unit: Napheesa Collier to win MVP (+300)
0.5 unit: Jonquel Jones to win DPOY (+3000)
0.5 unit: Angel Reese to win DPOY (+2000)
0.5 unit: Aliyah Boston to win DPOY (+3500)
0.5 unit: Kamila Cardoso to win DPOY (+5500)
0.5 unit: Kayla Thornton to win MIP (+400)
0.5 unit: Brittney Sykes to win MIP (+250)
0.5 unit: Aliyah Boston to win MIP (+1500)
0.5 unit: Kamila Cardoso to win MIP (+3000)
0.5 unit: Seattle Storm to win the Championship (+2500)
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
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