As conference races heat up and Bracketology re-enters our vernacular, what teams still offer value to bettors on the hunt for the next national champion? Outside of the Big 12, no conference features more than two or three obvious tournament teams. As a result, there are few resounding wins and plenty of bad losses to be had.
Each team highlighted in this article has the parts to make a run in March, but each of them has seen their flaws exposed on more than one occasion. Lets run through this group, their questions and their current odds to win their conference and to win the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina Tar Heels (13-3, 5-0 ACC)
As mentioned earlier, there are two, three teams at most guaranteed tournament bound from every Power 5 conference (again, excluding the Big 12). In the ACC, its Carolina and Duke. The Blue Devils entered the season with the bigger names and bigger expectations. A couple of weeks into 2024, however, it is the Tar Heels sitting atop the conference. They are the top scoring (83.8pts/gm) as well as rebounding (41.2boards/gm.) team in the ACC. They defend the 3 (28.9%) better than every team in the league other than the Pitt Panthers. They go to the charity stripe an average of 8 times more than their opponents and they shoot free throws themselves at a healthy 76%. At +1600, there is still value in the North Carolina Tar Heels.
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Marquette Golden Eagles (12-5, 3-3 Big East)
Monday’s win over Villanova pulled the Golden Eagles back to an even 3-3 in the Big East. Marquette does not rebound the ball well (2nd worst in the conference at 33.8/gm.) and shoots a league-low 31.6% from deep. Add in the fact they get to the line a paltry 16.8 times per game, and you can see why they struggle if any of their Big 3 of Kolek, Ighodoro, and Jones fail to produce on a given night. The past week is a small but accurate sample size as the trio scored just 34 in a loss to Butler only to turn around the very next game and shoot 70% from the floor and score 61 points against Villanova. Currently listed at +2000, there are too many holes on this team to run with them. However, should the number drop just a bit more, Shaka Smart’s squad may just force our hand.
Kansas Jayhawks (15-2, 3-1 Big 12)
Bill Self’s team is not deep, but a lack of depth is not their #1 issue. This team does not shoot enough from beyond the arc. They are dead last in the Big 12 averaging just under 18 3s per game. To add some perspective, BYU takes north of 33 shots from deep every game to lead the conference. Kansas makes almost 36% of their 3pt. attempts. Again, the percentage is not the issue. The volume is just not there. As talented (albeit a bit thin) as the Jayhawks are, not sure they can keep up without increasing the number of 3s they attempt as we get to March. Kansas at +1600 is only worth the sweat if you really believe Bill Self can get this team to another level in the next eight weeks.
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Wisconsin Badgers (13-4, 5-1 B1G Ten)
Without much recognition or fanfare, the Badgers sit atop the B1G Ten even after Tuesday night’s disappointing loss at State College to the Nittany Lions. Last night’s loss aside, what has made Greg Gard’s team so successful? They don’t shoot the ball at a high percentage (47% overall, 35% from 3). They don’t rebound the ball especially well (34.6% - 12th in the Big Ten). They average a less than special 75 points per game. So why buy the Badgers? D-E-F-E-N-S-E. They defend like few teams in the nation yielding a stingy 65.4pts/gm. While they don’t rebound especially well, they somehow at the same time don’t let their opponents get too many second looks. And Wisconsin does not turn the ball over coughing it up less than 10 times per game. They are a veteran team that is hard to play against for 40 minutes. Effort is a talent and they have it in spades. At +4000, it will be a sweat, especially when smacked with the results of what happens when that effort is not there, but this is the Detroit Lions of the college hardwood: plenty of grit and determination mixed with a just enough talent to make things interesting.
No question there are other schools worth a ticket and a sweat. Stay tuned.
