After a 3-5 Week (-2.67 units), it’s a bounce back week. Penn State let me down, but we’re back on the attack in Happy Valley as the Nittany Lions host FIU, while the BIG 12 has my attention this week with Baylor, SMU, Colorado, and Oklahoma State all ending up on my Week 2 betting card.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Bryce Underwood O/U 9.5 Rushing Yards vs Oklahoma
Bryce Underwood was phenomenal in Week against New Mexico, there is no debating that. However, he was sacked twice against New Mexico in his Michigan debut for -5 yards — and those were his only “rush attempts.”
Well, in theory, Underwood shouldn’t have a prop line if he isn’t going to put up carries outside of sacks, but with no designed runs shown ahead of Oklahoma — we’d have to expect that’s not a strong suit of his.
The Sooners defensive line is improved from last year and I know shutting down Illinois State isn’t anything to brag about, but OU allowed 1.7 yards per carry and two sacks.
I think the Michigan offense will struggle in its first true road game with Underwood under center and he gets sacked a few times, which likely puts him under nine rushing yards. This prop opened at 15.5 before being quickly taken down. I think this closes at 5.5 yards or lower. Shop around.
Pick: Bryce Underwood Under 9.5 Rushing Yards (1.5 units)
Baylor at SMU (-3): O/U 64.5
Baylor lost 38-24 in Week 1, but did they shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly. The Bears allowed a 98-yard kick return touchdown after cutting the lead to 24-17, plus two of their offensive drives stalled on fourth down inside Auburn’s 11-yard line, and another around midfield.
Everything went against Baylor in Week 1 and I don’t care. I think the Bears are a much better team than they showcased in Week 1. Auburn got out to a quick 17-3 lead and Baylor fought the entire way.
SMU wasn’t tested whatsoever, will have a one day rest disadvantage, and these two haven’t met since 2016. Baylor missed 23 tackles versus Auburn, which SMU will bank on, but if the Bears clean up their mistakes. I like Baylor +2.5/3 at -118 odds, whatever you can get and the ML at +120.
Pick: Baylor +3 (1 unit), Baylor ML (0.5 unit)
Florida International at Penn State (-41.5): O/U 53.5
Nevada scored a touchdown on Penn State with 25 seconds remaining to cover against Penn State, push the Over, and cash the Wolfpack’s Team Total of 6.5. Disgusting stuff that oddsmakers probably loved.
Well, I am coming back to the window on the Penn State defense and fading the FIU offense. The Panthers scored 42 points in Week 1 versus Bethune-Cookman, but they’ll be lucky if they reach 25% of that at Penn State.
FIU scored 7 points at Indiana last year scoring on a 75-yard drive before the first half concluded. Penn State’s defense allowed 2.5 yards per carry, forced three turnovers, and 125 passing yards despite holding a lead all game.
I laid a trio of bets down: FIU’s Team Total Under 6.5 at -120 odds, the First Half Team Total Under 2.5 (-106) and the Panthers to go scoreless at +250 odds. Shop around.
Pick: FIU Team Total Under 6.5 (1 unit), FIU 1H Team Total Under 2.5 (1 unit), Penn State to win by shutout (0.5 unit)
Oklahoma State at Oregon (-27.5): O/U 55.5
Late in the first quarter of Week 1, Oklahoma State lost their starting quarterback Hauss Hejny and relied on Zane Flores to fill in. Despite playing three quarters against UT-Marin with a 14-7 lead, Flores finished 13 of 20 for 136 yards (66.9 QBR).
A 41-yard bomb on third-and-16 equated to 30% of his yardage for the game. Oklahoma State could be very one-dimensional in the first half attempting to establish the run (ran 42 times in Week 1) and throwing on third-and-mediums or longer.
As long as Oregon survives the first and final drives of the first half, I think we have a winner on the Cowboys first half team total Under 6.5. At +116 odds, fading Oklahoma State in the first half will be a serious sweat, but one that should work out.
Pick: Oklahoma State 1H Team Total Under 6.5 (1 unit)
Delaware at Colorado (-23.5): O/U 49.5
Deion Sanders said five-star QB Julian Lewis will play, so Colorado is expecting to blow Delaware out and attempt to put up points in the second half.
I thought the Buffaloes’ defense was impressive, primarily in the first half against Georgia Tech. Colorado hops into BIG 12 play next week when they go to Houston, so this is a must-win and I don’t believe it is a trap spot.
Delaware was a really good FCS team last year at 9-2, but they haven’t played a DI team in 24 straight games dating back to a 63-7 loss at Penn State in 2023. I laid the -23.5 with Colorado at -115 odds and would go to -24.
Pick: Colorado -23.5 (1 unit)
Season Record: 3-5 (37.5%) -2.67 units
All game odds are courtesy of DraftKings and are liable to be different by time of reading. All odds updated as of Friday night.
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