Bristol can be difficult to predict. Trouble lies in wait at every corner and when it takes only 15 seconds to get around this track it is hard for anyone to find safety. Even the leader is not immune from danger.
Once the field gets into a rhythm, however, they can rattle off long runs of green flag laps. In last year’s edition of the Food City 500, only 12 racers finished on the lead lap and 15 made the distance in August. The last driver on the lead lap tells us something as well: David Ragan finished 12th in this race last year; Kasey Kahne was 15th under the lights.
This is a track that often favors dark horses while some of the marquee drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, and even Kevin Harvick concentrate their efforts on the similarly-configured, 1.5- and two-mile tracks as well as the flat tracks that make up the majority of the schedule. If you chose correctly, this provides a huge opportunity to make up some ground on your competition.
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1. Kyle Busch
It’s hard not to list Busch at the top of this list since he has five victories and another second-place finish in the last 10 short track races.
2. Joey Logano
If not for modest performances during the past two weeks, Logano might be our pick to win. We still expect big things from him with five top-10s in the last six Bristol races and a pair of victories in 2014/2015.
3. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin was not much of a short track master last year with only a couple of top-10s to his credit. He finished 14th in both Bristol races, but that came on the heels of a pair or thirds in the two previous Night races.
4. Chase Elliott
Elliott has been hit or miss at Bristol, but when he is on his “A” game, he’s capable of scoring top-fives like he did in his inaugural attempt in 2016 and again last August.
5. Clint Bowyer
Bowyer has been in the top 10 at Bristol more often than not in recent seasons with five single digit results in his last eight attempts.
6. Kurt Busch
Busch earns top-fives in about one-third of his recent Bristol races and he rarely backs up one with another. Given the way he’s running at the moment, however, he should be able to double up for the first time since 2011.
7. Aric Almirola
Almirola’s top-10 streak could be in jeopardy this week since he has only two such results at Bristol in the past seven years compared to six efforts that landed outside the top 30.
8. Jimmie Johnson
Even while he struggled elsewhere, Johnson has been stout at Bristol with seven top-10s and an 11th in his last nine races there.
9. Kevin Harvick
For any other driver, consistent top-10s would be a recommendation - but until Harvick is ready to challenge for victories again, he is of limited use to players.
10. Alex Bowman
After missing two years of Bristol races in the Cup series, Bowman returned with a vengeance and swept the top 10 in 2018.
11. Ryan Blaney
The last two Spring races on this track ended badly for Blaney. His 30-something finishes in those races have been offset by top-10s under the lights in August, however.
12. Kyle Larson
We want to get excited about Larson because of his pair of second-place finishes at Bristol last year. He’s been so uneven in 2019, however, that he is a risky proposition.
13. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
In 12 career races at Bristol, Stenhouse has a worst finish of only 24th and an average of 11.3. He finished second in 2014 and 2016. He also has a fourth in this race last year. He deserves your attention.
14. Daniel Suarez
Suarez has been consistent on short tracks with a worst finish of 18th since the 2017 Bristol Spring race, but he’s been a little better on the flat versions of Martinsville and Richmond.
15. Martin Truex Jr.
In 2011/2012, Truex finished second and third in back-to-back Bristol races. Since then, he has only one top-10 in the last 13. There are simply better places to start him.
16. Brad Keselowski
Keselowski has been strong enough on the 1.5-mile tracks this year that he can be rested at Bristol - a place where he has no top-15s in the past three years.
17. Ryan Newman
If the competition thinks Newman is hard to pass on an unrestricted, intermediate speedway, they are in for a shocker on this half-mile bullring.
18. Austin Dillon
Most of Dillon’s results at Bristol have landed in the top 15 including both races last year. His career-best of fourth in August 2016 proves he can be an extremely good value.
19. Erik Jones
Jones has only one top-10 finish on a short track in the last two seasons. That came at Bristol last year and he almost won the 2017 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, but fantasy players only want to start him if he’s fast in practice.
20. David Ragan
Bristol is a place for drivers to shine. Ragan has finished 23rd or better in his last five races there, including his 12th-place finish in this event last year.
21. William Byron
Last year Byron finished in the top 20 in his first three short track races. He did not get off to quite as strong a start in 2019 with a 22nd at Martinsville.
22. Paul Menard
In the last three seasons, Menard has finished outside of the top 25 on a short track only twice. One of these was a 36th at Bristol last August.
23. Ty Dillon
Dillon has not performed particularly well at Bristol, but he’s improved on short tracks in the last couple of years with a couple of top-15s and some results in the low-20s.
24. Chris Buescher
One of Buescher’s four top-five finishes in the Cup series came at Bristol in 2016. Last August, he scored another top-20 in 19th.
25. Ryan Preece
Preece has been the top-finishing rookie in four of seven races this year, including at the only other short track race in Martinsville.
26. Matt DiBenedetto
This is a good week to bet on some longshots. DiBenedetto has finished 26th or better in his last six attempts on this half mile oval.
27. Matt Tifft
We are still trying to figure out where Tifft fits in a typical field, but he has finished in the 20s five times in seven races this year including a 20th at ISM, so we’re putting him in the mid-20s for now.
28. Daniel Hemric
In the last three weeks, Hemric has faded and finished outside the top 25 each week. This might be a good time to let him recalibrate.
29. Landon Cassill
In the past three years, Cassill has been remarkably strong at Bristol given the cars he’s had under him. He finished in the 20s in both 2016 and 2018 races.
30. Bubba Wallace
We had high hopes for Wallace last August after he finished 16th in the Food City 500, but he got into trouble and finished at the back of the pack under the lights.
31. Michael McDowell
McDowell entered this race last year with a streak of three Bristol results of 19th to 26th. He crashed out of both races, however, and never got to show his mettle.
32. Corey LaJoie
Short tracks are driver’s courses and LaJoie has scored top-25s in his last two Spring Bristol races. Keep a close eye for him if you are looking for a bargain basement value.
33. Bayley Currey
In 33 starts in NASCAR’s top-three series, Currey has scored just one top-10 on the one-mile flat track in Phoenix in the Truck series.
34. Ross Chastain
An accident early in this race last year limited Chastain’s opportunity. He ran only three laps before finishing 39th. He was running at the end of the August event in 26th, however.
35. Reed Sorenson
Sorenson made both Bristol races last year and finished in the low-30s each time. With some luck, he will do that again this Sunday.
36. Joey Gase
Over the past three seasons, Gase has made three short track races. His best finish on them was a 34th in the 2017 Night Race.
37. Quin Houff
We didn’t expect much from Houff in his series debut at ISM Raceway so his 30th-place finish was a solid result for anyone who knew his name from the Cars Super Late Model Series.
38. Cody Ware
After turning the seat of the No. 51 over to another driver last week, Ware is back behind the wheel on one of NASCAR’s toughest courses.
Most Accurate Predictions This Year | ||
Driver | Avg. | Times |
| ||
2.9 | 5 | |
3.4 | 4 | |
3.4 | 3 | |
3.7 | 4 | |
3.9 | 5 | |
3.9 | 4 | |
4.0 | 3 | |
5.0 | 2 | |
5.1 | 5 | |
5.3 | 3 | |
5.3 | 2 |
