The expectations for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. since he entered the majors back in 2019 have been as high as any prospect since perhaps Mike Trout or Byron Buxton.
It’s safe to say that Guerrero Jr. hasn’t lived up those lofty heights just yet, but Thursday brought a reminder of just how talented the infielder is -- even if it came in a Grapefruit League game.
Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-3 with a homer and four RBI on Thursday as the Blue Jays topped the Tigers 10-6 in seven innings. The homer was off of Michael Fulmer, and it was measured at 112 mph in exit velocity.
It’s a very small sample -- and again, it’s spring training -- but in 10 at-bats in Florida thus far, Guerrero Jr. is 5-for-10 to begin the spring, and all reports indicate that the son of Hall-of-Famer Vladimir Guerrero has looked the part. He came into spring in the best shape we’ve seen him in, and while it’s easy to make “best shape of his life” jokes, it’s not something that should be taken lightly. No pun intended. Baseball is not as tough in terms of cardiovascular activity as some other sports, but it’s a grind, and being in good shape obviously makes things much easier.[[ad:athena]]
Fantasy players should certainly take the weight loss into consideration for the reasons listed above, but the reason to be excited about Guerrero Jr. is the offensive potential in the right-handed bat. Let’s keep in mind that he turns 22 on Tuesday; an age that is younger or equal to several prospects that qualify in the top 100. And while the results haven’t been excellent by any means -- Guerrero Jr. has an OPS of .778 in his year-plus in the majors including a .791 mark last year -- the metrics suggest that there’s been some bad luck in some regards. Yes, he puts the ball on the ground too often, but last year he was among the best in the game in exit velocity, hard hit percentage and strikeout percentage; and he ranked in the 60th percentile in both expected batting average and slugging percentage. Anyone who watched Guerrero Jr. in the Home Run Derby a few short years ago knows that the power is there, it’s just a matter of lifting the ball more.
Guerrero Jr. has been selected 47th on average in Yahoo leagues, and he went 52nd overall in the NBC Sports EDGE Mock Draft on Wednesday. There’s no denying that there’s risk in taking a hitter that has mediocre results thus far that early, but considering the talent and metrics, it’s worth the risk at that point in the draft -- if not sooner.
MiLB implements new rules that could have long-term effect
Unless you’ve been living underneath some sort of rock or unable to access the internet, you’ve likely heard several potential rule changes coming to baseball. You won’t see them in MLB games this summer, but if you’re fortunate enough to attend a minor league game, you’ll get to see a few, no matter what level you’re watching.
MiLB announced several new rule changes for each level on Thursday. Each level gets one change, and all of them are an effort to either increase offense or create “excitement.” Triple-A will see the bases increase from 15 inches squared to 18 inches, and the goal there is to increase the success rate of steals. High-A will see pitchers forced to step off the rubber -- or “disengage” in order to make a throw, while Low-A will see a limitation of two pickoff attempts per batter while a runner is on base. All of those rules are obviously a possibility to see runners run more, which could (should) lead to a higher number of steals.
The biggest -- and most controversial -- rule change, however, comes in Double-A. Their rule change will require that there are four infielders that have to lineup in the dirt. MLB also can call for a rule at some point in the summer where there will also have to be at least two defenders on both sides of second base. Long story short, this is a look at eliminating the shift. The shift has been in existence for an awful long time -- Ted Williams faced it -- but obviously has taken on a strong presence in the analytical age.
Again, it won’t play an impact in 2020 for fantasy managers, but if any of these rules are implemented into MLB going forward -- particularly the shift -- there are significant fantasy implications, ones that you’ll see plenty of articles written about going forward, and justifiably so.
Rosario could be headed to the outfield
When Cleveland traded Francisco Lindor to the Mets, the assumption was that one of the players in the return would be the starter at shortstop. It appears that will be the case, but it may not be the player you were expecting.
According to Mandy Bell of MLB.com, Cleveland intends to have Amed Rosario to take reps in the outfield. This is in large part due to the success thus far this spring from Andres Gimenez, who also came over in the Lindor deal. A former top 100 prospect, the 22-year-old has hit a strong .333/.375/.867 thus far in his 16 plate appearances in the Cactus League, and that’s come with two homers in his six games. Rosario hasn’t been bad by any means with a .333 average and .762 OPS, but Gimenez has been better with the bat and with the glove thus far in Goodyear.
Rosario gaining outfield eligibility is something to keep an eye on, but Gimenez needs to become a consideration in mixed leagues -- at least in terms of being an option off a fantasy manager’s bench.
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National League Quick Hits: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Pirates have signed Trevor Cahill to a one-year, $1.5 million contract … Juan Soto (illness) was scratched from the Nationals’ Grapefruit League lineup on Thursday. It’s believed to be a minor sinus infection … Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said Thursday that the recent imaging on Miles Mikolas’ right shoulder didn’t show anything invasive … Ender Inciarte is currently sidelined in Braves camp due to a sore thumb … Fernando Tatis Jr. (illness) is expected to return to Cactus League action on Friday … Gregory Polanco is away from Pirates camp following the birth of his son … J.T. Realmuto (thumb) was able to attempt 40 throws on Thursday … Ronald Acuña Jr. went 2-for-3 with a homer and a steal in the Braves’ 2-0 victory over the Rays … Carlos Carrasco (elbow) will attempt to play catch on Sunday … Dominic Smith will play left field on Friday for the first time this spring against the Marlins … Padres manager Jayce Tingler told reporters on Thursday that Trent Grisham was diagnosed with a slight hamstring strain .. Austin Slater (hamstring) could return to the field on Friday … Jacob deGrom was perfect over three innings with seven strikeouts against the Astros in his Grapefruit League start on Thursday … Austin Romine is currently out of action with a right knee sprain … Wade Miley left Thursday’s Cactus League contest against the White Sox with a left hamstring injury.
American League Quick Hits: Brent Honeywell (elbow) will soon advance to live batting practice sessions, per Rays manager Kevin Cash … Luis Severino (elbow) threw off a mound this past Tuesday … Gerardo Reyes is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery next week … Byron Buxton got a crown for a cracked tooth on Wednesday. He reportedly received the crack while eating steak … Billy Hamilton was informed by the Indians Thursday that he will not be on the Opening Day roster … Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said Thursday that Jarred Kelenic’s (knee) recovery is moving “quickly” … Jason Castro is currently being held out of Grapefruit League games due to an oblique injury … Xander Bogaerts (shoulder) is scheduled to make his Grapefruit League debut on Friday … Andrelton Simmons will make his Grapefruit League debut on Friday … Cristian Javier and Enoli Paredes have returned to spring training camp … Robinson Chirinos has been diagnosed with a fractured right wrist … Yasmani Grandal appeared in a simulated game on Wednesday … Roenis Elias has exited Thursday’s relief appearance against the Dodgers in the Cactus League with discomfort in his left arm.
