Here’s part two of the three-part projections review. This one focuses on catchers and outfielders. I’ve included my preseason top 10 catchers and top 30 outfielders (minus the guys who already showed up as infielders last week), as well as others of interest.
As started last week, I definitely overshot with these offensive projections. Of course, that’s always going to happen some, but it’s especially the case this year because offense was down across the league.
I’ll finish things up with the starting pitching review next week, followed by the top 111 free agents after the World Series.
Catchers
1. Salvador Perez - Royals
Projection: .265/.306/.505, 34 HR, 70 R, 95 RBI, 1 SB in 533 AB
2022 stats: .254/.292/.465, 23 HR, 48 R, 76 RBI, 0 SB in 445 AB
2. Will Smith - Dodgers
Projection: .266/.363/.515, 28 HR, 75 R, 82 RBI, 2 SB in 429 AB
2022 stats: .260/.343/.465, 24 HR, 68 R, 87 RBI, 1 SB in 508 AB
This looks quite a bit better than it would have had I projected Smith for the 578 plate appearances he actually received. Had I gone that high, I would have had him at 32 homers, 88 runs scored and 96 RBI. It’s rather surprising that he scored just 68 runs, given that 85% of his plate appearances came hitting third or fourth, but that’s a result of Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor all turning in disappointing performances.
3. J.T. Realmuto - Phillies
Projection: .258/.328/.444, 21 HR, 69 R, 79 RBI, 10 SB in 500 AB
2022 stats: .276/.342/.478, 22 HR, 75 R, 84 RBI, 21 SB in 504 AB
4. Daulton Varsho - Diamondbacks
Projection: .256/.322/.445, 18 HR, 69 R, 60 RBI, 14 SB in 472 AB
2022 stats: .235/.302/.443, 27 HR, 79 R, 74 RBI, 16 SB in 531 AB
Varsho was pretty easily fantasy baseball’s No. 2 catcher behind Realmuto this year. Still, I’m a bit nervous here. His exit velocity numbers weren’t very impressive, and Statcast has him with an xBA of .214 and xSLG of .389. He’s not great in the contact department, either. On the other hand, it’s easy to imagine continuing to take steps forward with the bat if he leaves catching behind, something that seems increasingly likely to happen given just how well he handed center field. I’m torn.
5. Alejandro Kirk - Blue Jays
Projection: .286/.350/.491, 19 HR, 57 R, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 385 AB
2022 stats: .285/.372/.415, 14 HR, 59 R, 63 RBI, 0 SB in 470 AB
If Kirk gets the ball in the air a bit more often next year, 20+ homers remains realistic. Kirk had 48 more hard-hit balls than Varsho in 61 fewer at-bats.
6. Willson Contreras - Cubs
Projection: .241/.334/.456, 24 HR, 64 R, 66 RBI, 3 SB in 436 AB
2022 stats: .243/.349/.466, 22 HR, 65 R, 55 RBI, 4 SB in 416 AB
7. Mitch Garver - Rangers
Projection: .250/.345/.494, 22 HR, 56 R, 61 RBI, 1 SB in 348 AB
2022 stats: .207/.298/.404, 10 HR, 23 R, 24 RBI, 1 SB in 188 AB
8. Yasmani Grandal - White Sox
Projection: .228/.361/.441, 23 HR, 66 R, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 413 AB
2022 stats: .202/.301/.269, 5 HR, 15 R, 27 RBI, 1 SB in 327 AB
Grandal had 375 plate appearances with a .939 OPS in 2021. He had 376 plate appearances with a .570 OPS this year.
9. Tyler Stephenson - Reds
Projection: .273/.352/.438, 14 HR, 49 R, 50 RBI, 1 SB in 370 AB
2022 stats: .319/.372/.482, 6 HR, 24 R, 35 RBI, 1 SB in 166 AB
It’ll be interesting to see how Stephenson is treated next year. He certainly was productive in the 50 games in which he was healthy. However, his strikeout rate took a huge jump (19% in 2021, 26% this year) and his exit velocity numbers were actually a little worse than in 2021. I think I’ll be shying away.
10. Gary Sanchez - Twins
Projection: .225/.329/.437, 21 HR, 53 R, 55 RBI, 0 SB in 382 AB
2022 stats: .205/.282/.377, 16 HR, 42 R, 61 RBI, 2 SB in 419 AB
11. Christian Vazquez - Red Sox/Astros
Projection: .254/.308/.386, 11 HR, 49 R, 50 RBI, 4 SB in 414 AB
2022 stats: .274/.315/.399, 9 HR, 41 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB in 398 AB
13. Sean Murphy - Athletics
Projection: .234/.327/.431, 18 HR, 51 R, 51 RBI, 1 SB in 367 AB
2022 stats: .250/.332/.426, 18 HR, 67 R, 66 RBI, 1 SB in 537 AB
15. Adley Rutschman - Orioles
Projection: .255/.340/.432, 11 HR, 37 R, 38 RBI, 1 SB in 271 AB
2022 stats: .254/.362/.445, 13 HR, 70 R, 42 RBI, 4 SB in 398 AB
I’ll also likely be lower than most on Rutschman next year. He’s an incredibly impressive young player, but he’s going to be viewed as an elite fantasy catcher and I’m not quite sure he’s ready to contribute enough in average or homers to get there. His hard-hit rate this year was in just the 31st percentile. I will feel better about the things if the Orioles add some offense behind him.
17. Keibert Ruiz - Nationals
Projection: .261/.315/.397, 12 HR, 43 R, 48 RBI, 0 SB in 383 AB
2022 stats: .251/.313/.360, 7 HR, 33 R, 36 RBI, 6 SB in 394 AB
21. Eric Haase - Tigers
Projection: .224/.282/.444, 18 HR, 40 R, 45 RBI, 1 SB in 313 AB
2022 stats: .254/.305/.443, 14 HR, 41 R, 44 RBI, 0 SB in 323 AB
26. Joey Bart - Giants
Projection: .237/.300/.407, 11 HR, 38 R, 40 RBI, 1 SB in 312 AB
2022 stats: .215/.296/.364, 11 HR, 34 R, 25 RBI, 0 SB in 261 AB
Bart’s strikeout rate dropped from 44% in the first half to 34% afterwards, so that’s at least something. He has 25-homer potential if he can establish himself as a starter, but he needs to step it up defensively in order to become the new Mike Zunino.
27. Cal Raleigh - Mariners
Projection: .249/.297/.434, 10 HR, 26 R, 31 RBI, 2 SB in 221 AB
2022 stats: .211/.284/.489, 27 HR, 46 R, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 370 AB
Raleigh would have been my preseason No. 10 catcher on a per-plate appearance basis, and I assume I’ll have him in the top 10 next year. It’s amazing that he was swinging with any authority at all down the stretch this year, given the condition of his thumb.
29. Yadier Molina - Cardinals
Projection: .246/.288/.359, 10 HR, 40 R, 50 RBI, 2 SB in 415 AB
2022 stats: .214/.233/.302, 5 HR, 19 R, 24 RBI, 2 SB in 262 AB
I wonder how many more years in the league Molina could last as a backup had he any desire to go that route. Five? There’s no doubt a bunch of teams would have loved to have him around, even without any real hope of offense.
30. MJ Melendez - Royals
Projection: .248/.324/.463, 6 HR, 17 R, 18 RBI, 1 SB in 121 AB
2022 stats: .217/.313/.393, 18 HR, 57 R, 62 RBI, 2 SB in 460 AB
40. Jonah Heim - Rangers
Projection: .250/.301/.385, 6 HR, 23 R, 24 RBI, 1 SB in 208 AB
2022 stats: .227/.298/.399, 16 HR, 51 R, 48 RBI, 2 SB in 406 AB
48. William Contreras - Braves
Projection: .248/.303/.404, 4 HR, 13 R, 14 RBI, 0 SB in 109 AB
2022 stats: .278/.354/.506, 20 HR, 51 R, 45 RBI, 2 SB in 334 AB
Outfielders
1. Juan Soto - Nationals/Padres
Projection: .326/.455/.622, 40 HR, 127 R, 104 RBI, 11 SB in 537 AB
2022 stats: .242/.401/.452, 27 HR, 93 R, 62 RBI, 6 SB in 524 AB
Soto had a career .330 BABIP before coming in at .249 this year. Statcast thinks he was fairly unlucky, believing he should have hit .266 with a .501 slugging, but it should be noted that his average exit velocity dipped two mph from 2021 and his hard-hit rate fell from 52% to 47%. It’s hopefully a temporary setback for the guy who is supposed to be the greatest hitter of his generation.
2. Ronald Acuña Jr. - Braves
Projection: .286/.392/.603, 38 HR, 105 R, 85 RBI, 16 SB in 448 AB
2022 stats: .266/.351/.413, 15 HR, 71 R, 50 RBI, 29 SB in 467 AB
I don’t know that Acuña will top my draft board next year, but I don’t imagine he’ll come in any lower than third. He hit the ball harder than his numbers suggest this year, and his knee should be 100 percent next season.
3. Kyle Tucker - Astros
Projection: .296/.355/.564, 35 HR, 94 R, 105 RBI, 16 SB in 557 AB
2022 stats: .257/.330/.478, 30 HR, 71 R, 107 RBI, 25 SB in 544 AB
4. Mookie Betts - Dodgers
Projection: .286/.372/.524, 33 HR, 116 R, 82 RBI, 18 SB in 567 AB
2022 stats: .269/.340/.533, 35 HR, 117 R, 82 RBI, 12 SB in 572 AB
5. Luis Robert - White Sox
Projection: .280/.330/.549, 38 HR, 95 R, 101 RBI, 18 SB in 567 AB
2022 stats: .284/.319/.426, 12 HR, 54 R, 56 RBI, 11 SB in 380 AB
Wrist problems certainly played a role in Robert’s lack of power this year. He’s probably a bigger injury risk than most going forward, but I’ll still be happy to target him if his ADP tumbles.
6. Yordan Alvarez - Astros
Projection: .293/.376/.573, 39 HR, 101 R, 119 RBI, 2 SB in 550 AB
2022 stats: .306/.406/.613, 37 HR, 95 R, 97 RBI, 1 SB in 470 AB
Prorating Alvarez’s numbers to 550 at-bats gets him to 43 homers, 111 runs and 114 RBI. Statcast gives him a .462 xwOBA, practically a match for Aaron Judge‘s .463. Third on that list was Freddie Freeman at .403.
7. Byron Buxton - Twins
Projection: .280/.328/.581, 38 HR, 93 R, 87 RBI, 18 SB in 508 AB
2022 stats: .224/.306/.526, 28 HR, 61 R, 51 RBI, 6 SB in 340 AB
8. Mike Trout - Angels
Projection: .285/.420/.600, 40 HR, 105 R, 98 RBI, 6 SB in 478 AB
2022 stats: .283/.369/.630, 40 HR, 85 R, 80 RBI, 1 SB in 438 AB
9. Aaron Judge - Yankees
Projection: .281/.384/.574, 43 HR, 108 R, 99 RBI, 4 SB in 533 AB
2022 stats: .311/.425/.686, 62 HR, 133 R, 131 RBI, 16 SB in 570 AB
The 16 steals, clearly the most notable part of Judge’s season, were one more than he had totaled in 390 games over the previous four seasons.
10. Bryce Harper - Phillies
Projection: .276/.407/.556, 36 HR, 103 R, 92 RBI, 12 SB in 511 AB
2022 stats: .286/.364/.514, 18 HR, 63 R, 65 RBI, 11 SB in 370 AB
11. Tyler O’Neill - Cardinals
Projection: .264/.333/.514, 36 HR, 92 R, 95 RBI, 16 SB in 564 AB
2022 stats: .228/.308/.392, 14 HR, 56 R, 58 RBI, 14 SB in 334 AB
O’Neill certainly didn’t hit the ball as hard this year as in his 34-homer 2021 season, but he also didn’t strike out as much, with his K rate dropping from 31% to 27%. That seems like a good sign, and it should be that his power will come back some with better health next year.
12. Teoscar Hernández - Blue Jays
Projection: .264/.320/.515, 36 HR, 87 R, 103 RBI, 10 SB in 557 AB
2022 stats: .267/.316/.491, 25 HR, 71 R, 77 RBI, 6 SB in 499 AB
13. Cedric Mullins - Orioles
Projection: .269/.335/.460, 24 HR, 90 R, 67 RBI, 26 SB in 587 AB
2022 stats: .258/.318/.403, 16 HR, 89 R, 64 RBI, 34 SB in 608 AB
14. Eloy Jimenez - White Sox
Projection: .287/.340/.538, 36 HR, 85 R, 107 RBI, 1 SB in 588 AB
2022 stats: .295/.358/.500, 16 HR, 40 R, 54 RBI, 0 SB in 292 AB
16. Nick Castellanos - Phillies
Projection: .281/.339/.511, 31 HR, 87 R, 104 RBI, 2 SB in 581 AB
2022 stats: .263/.305/.389, 13 HR, 56 R, 62 RBI, 7 SB in 524 AB
17. Starling Marte - Mets
Projection: .272/.331/.417, 15 HR, 83 R, 64 RBI, 28 SB in 547 AB
2022 stats: .292/.347/.468, 16 HR, 76 R, 63 RBI, 18 SB in 466 AB
18. Randy Arozarena - Rays
Projection: .262/.348/.446, 22 HR, 85 R, 81 RBI, 20 SB in 549 AB
2022 stats: .263/.327/.445, 20 HR, 72 R, 89 RBI, 32 SB in 586 AB
Arozarena again fared quite a bit better than his middling Statcast numbers suggested. He did make some real progress in the strikeout department, though, going from a 28% K rate in 2021 to 24% this year.
19. Alex Verdugo - Red Sox
Projection: .304/.363/.481, 18 HR, 88 R, 86 RBI, 6 SB in 553 AB
2022 stats: .280/.328/.405, 11 HR, 75 R, 74 RBI, 1 SB in 593 AB
21. Kyle Schwarber - Phillies
Projection: .258/.363/.533, 30 HR, 98 R, 86 RBI, 2 SB in 523 AB
2022 stats: .218/.323/.504, 46 HR, 100 R, 94 RBI, 10 SB in 577 AB
I paid too much attention to that stint at Fenway with the Red Sox (.291, 7 HR in 41 games) instead of the entire body of work. I was a fair amount higher on Schwarber than his ADP, so that’s good. But it’s a pretty bad projection.
24. J.D. Martinez - Red Sox
Projection: .281/.352/.502, 29 HR, 85 R, 96 RBI, 1 SB in 556 AB
2022 stats: .274/.341/.448, 16 HR, 76 R, 62 RBI, 0 SB in 533 AB
25. Cody Bellinger - Dodgers
Projection: .249/.337/.494, 32 HR, 81 R, 87 RBI, 10 SB in 506 AB
2022 stats: .210/.265/.389, 19 HR, 70 R, 68 RBI, 14 SB in 504 AB
Bellinger wasn’t as much of a liability this year as in 2021, but there just isn’t anything that leads to much optimism. Statcast thinks he was essentially the same subpar player both years and that he was just particularly unlucky in 2021. The Dodgers have to non-tender him.
26. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - Blue Jays
Projection: .284/.332/.505, 28 HR, 79 R, 94 RBI, 3 SB in 545 AB
2022 stats: .291/.342/.400, 5 HR, 52 R, 52 RBI, 3 SB in 453 AB
It’s bizarre to see Gurriel with just five homers. He had 21 in 500 at-bats in 2021, and he hit the ball a little harder in general this year; his average exit velocity increased slightly and his hard-hit rate climbed from 42.7% to 45.3%. However, his barrel rate, which was 9.6% in 2021 and higher than that the previous two years, plummeted to 3.8%. I’m not sure what to chalk that up to.
27. George Springer - Blue Jays
Projection: .259/.352/.510, 34 HR, 98 R, 78 RBI, 5 SB in 514 AB
2022 stats: .267/.342/.472, 25 HR, 89 R, 76 RBI, 14 SB in 513 AB
28. Christian Yelich - Brewers
Projection: .272/.377/.475, 24 HR, 88 R, 77 RBI, 11 SB in 503 AB
2022 stats: .252/.355/.383, 14 HR, 99 R, 57 RBI, 19 SB in 575 AB
Can we stop equating Yelich with Cody Bellinger? Yelich has a 107 OPS+ the last two years. Bellinger is at 64. Yelich had a 90th percentile hard-hit rate this year, but elevating the ball remains a problem for him, possibly because of his back issues. I’d still like to think he’ll figure something out.
29. Eddie Rosario - Braves
Projection: .274/.318/.487, 27 HR, 75 R, 90 RBI, 8 SB in 530 AB
2022 stats: .212/.259/.328, 5 HR, 27 R, 24 RBI, 3 SB in 250 AB
30. Myles Straw - Guardians
Projection: .264/.336/.356, 7 HR, 83 R, 50 RBI, 33 SB in 565 AB
2022 stats: .221/.291/.273, 0 HR, 72 R, 32 RBI, 21 SB in 535 AB
It’s hard to believe Straw tried just 22 steals, especially given that he was so successful when running. He spent most of the year hitting ahead of one of the game’s most patient batters in Steven Kwan, giving him plenty of opportunities. Plus, struggling hitters often ramp up the steal attempts in order to make it seem like they’re doing something positive and Straw certainly spent most of the year struggling.
32. Nick Senzel - Reds
Projection: .280/.340/.473, 20 HR, 75 R, 66 RBI, 14 SB in 486 AB
2022 stats: .231/.296/.306, 5 HR, 45 R, 25 RBI, 8 SB in 373 AB
34. Bryan Reynolds - Pirates
Projection: .275/.353/.479, 23 HR, 85 R, 85 RBI, 5 SB in 564 AB
2022 stats: .262/.345/.461, 27 HR, 74 R, 62 RBI, 7 SB in 542 AB
35. Andrew Benintendi - Royals/Yankees
Projection: .285/.345/.457, 18 HR, 74 R, 78 RBI, 11 SB in 530 AB
2022 stats: .304/.373/.399, 5 HR, 54 R, 51 RBI, 8 SB in 461 AB
36. Giancarlo Stanton - Yankees
Projection: .262/.351/.509, 33 HR, 78 R, 92 RBI, 1 SB in 489 AB
2022 stats: .211/.297/.462, 31 HR, 53 R, 78 RBI, 0 SB in 398 AB
37. Charlie Blackmon - Rockies
Projection: .284/.355/.462, 22 HR, 91 R, 76 RBI, 3 SB in 556 AB
2022 stats: .264/.314/.419, 16 HR, 60 R, 78 RBI, 4 SB in 530 AB
38. Ian Happ - Cubs
Projection: .253/.343/.485, 30 HR, 87 R, 81 RBI, 7 SB in 526 AB
2022 stats: .271/.342/.440, 17 HR, 72 R, 72 RBI, 9 SB in 573 AB
The shape of this projection wasn’t great. Happ came into the year with 74 doubles and 87 homers in essentially three seasons of playing time (1,797 PA) during his career. In 2022, he had 42 doubles and 17 homers.
40. Trent Grisham - Padres
Projection: .255/.340/.426, 20 HR, 87 R, 64 RBI, 18 SB in 533 AB
2022 stats: .184/.284/.341, 17 HR, 58 R, 53 RBI, 7 SB in 451 AB
41. Seiya Suzuki - Cubs
Projection: .265/.353/.471, 25 HR, 83 R, 79 RBI, 5 SB in 520 AB
2022 stats: .262/.336/.433, 14 HR, 54 R, 46 RBI, 9 SB in 397 AB
Suzuki missed 50 games and was streaky the rest of the time, but he didn’t fare badly in his MLB debut. His 25% strikeout rate was more a function of his patience than contact issues; only seven of the 277 players with 300 plate appearances this year swung less often than he did. I expect that he’ll be at least a little better next year.
44. Avisail Garcia - Marlins
Projection: .258/.316/.455, 27 HR, 76 R, 81 RBI, 8 SB in 561 AB
2022 stats: .224/.266/.317, 8 HR, 31 R, 35 RBI, 4 SB in 357 AB
46. Jarred Kelenic - Mariners
Projection: .263/.333/.450, 22 HR, 75 R, 77 RBI, 9 SB in 525 AB
2022 stats: .141/.221/.313, 7 HR, 20 R, 17 RBI, 5 SB in 163 AB
Kelenic cut down on the strikeouts some after returning from Triple-A, but it was still a bleak showing. He had more infield popups (12) than line drives (11) in his 163 major league plate appearances. I’m not writing him off forever, but I see no reason to recommend him for 2023.
47. Hunter Renfroe - Brewers
Projection: .242/.306/.505, 36 HR, 77 R, 92 RBI, 3 SB in 513 AB
2022 stats: .255/.315/.492, 29 HR, 62 R, 72 RBI, 1 SB in 474 AB
52. Julio Rodriguez - Mariners
Projection: .259/.330/.433, 19 HR, 70 R, 68 RBI, 14 SB in 501 AB
2022 stats: .284/.345/.509, 28 HR, 84 R, 75 RBI, 25 SB in 511 AB
While the 28 homers and 25 steals got all of the attention, hitting .284 -- 40 points above the league average -- as a 21-year-old rookie playing half his games at Safeco Field might have been Rodríguez’s most impressive feat of all. The Mariners as a whole hit .224 at home this year and .217 after taking out Rodríguez’s .285 mark.
54. Anthony Santander - Orioles
Projection: .262/.308/.488, 29 HR, 76 R, 78 RBI, 2 SB in 531 AB
2022 stats: .240/.318/.455, 33 HR, 78 R, 89 RBI, 0 SB in 574 AB
63. Joey Gallo - Yankees/Dodgers
Projection: .206/.337/.467, 37 HR, 85 R, 84 RBI, 5 SB in 510 AB
2022 stats: .160/.280/.357, 19 HR, 48 R, 47 RBI, 3 SB in 350 AB
Average exit velocity isn’t a great stat, but it seems notable that Gallo’s has fallen from 94 mph in 2018-19 to 91 mph in 2020-21 to 89 mph this year. At least he did bounce back there some with the Dodgers, going from 88 mph with the Yankees to 92 mph after the deal. Even with the absence of the shift poised to help him, it’s still going to be difficult to project him to finish over the Mendoza Line next year.
68. Steven Kwan - Guardians
Projection: .275/.332/.423, 16 HR, 64 R, 68 RBI, 7 SB in 480 AB
2022 stats: .298/.373/.400, 6 HR, 89 R, 52 RBI, 19 SB in 563 AB
Definitely not my best work, even if it doesn’t look so bad OPS-wise. Kwan hit 12 homers and stole six bases in 341 minor league plate appearances last year, and even though I’d seen him hit and should have known the power wouldn’t translate like that, I just went along with what the minor league numbers said.
72. Jarren Duran - Red Sox
Projection: .254/.314/.431, 12 HR, 47 R, 42 RBI, 13 SB in 334 AB
2022 stats: .221/.283/.363, 3 HR, 23 R, 17 RBI, 7 SB in 204
If Duran were a true center fielder, I’d say it makes sense to give him a full year to see what he can do. Since he’s not, I’m not sure it’s worth it.
81. Adolís Garcia - Rangers
Projection: .233/.279/.428, 22 HR, 57 R, 66 RBI, 10 SB in 472 AB
2022 stats: .250/.300/.456, 22 HR, 88 R, 101 RBI, 25 SB in 605 AB
Everyone worried about the 6:1 K:BB ratio, and Statcast thought Garcia was lucky to hit .243 with a .454 slugging in 2021; it gave him an xBA of .220 and xSLG of .422. Garcia, though, improved in year two as a regular, dropping his strikeout rate from 31% to 28% and moderately boosting all of his exit velocity numbers. I still don’t know that he’s going to have a long shelf life, but I won’t be so pessimistic about him next year.
82. Andrew Vaughn - White Sox
Projection: .263/.338/.468, 18 HR, 61 R, 58 RBI, 1 SB in 400 AB
2022 stats: .271/.321/.429, 17 HR, 60 R, 76 RBI, 0 SB in 510 AB
85. Taylor Ward - Angels
Projection: .252/.332/.445, 17 HR, 60 R, 56 RBI, 6 SB in 404 AB
2022 stats: .281/.360/.473, 23 HR, 73 R, 65 RBI, 5 SB in 495 AB
86. Jo Adell - Angels
Projection: .243/.291/.452, 18 HR, 49 R, 56 RBI, 9 SB in 383 AB
2022 stats: .224/.264/.373, 8 HR, 22 R, 27 RBI, 4 SB in 268 AB
104. Aaron Hicks - Yankees
Projection: .230/.332/.421, 19 HR, 63 R, 52 RBI, 6 SB in 413 AB
2022 stats: .216/.330/.313, 8 HR, 54 R, 40 RBI, 10 SB in 384 AB
Hicks’ isolated slugging percentage was over .200 each year from 2017-19. In the three years since: .189, .139 (in just 32 games) and .096.
109. Austin Slater - Giants
Projection: .263/.346/.431, 9 HR, 39 R, 34 RBI, 10 SB in 255 AB
2022 stats: .264/.366/.408, 7 HR, 49 R, 34 RBI, 12 SB in 277 AB
I’d still like to see what Slater could do as a full-timer. He hit .246/.350/.361 against righties in 143 plate appearances this season, which works out to a 105 OPS+.
114. Seth Brown - Athletics
Projection: .226/.291/.445, 23 HR, 56 R, 62 RBI, 6 SB in 429 AB
2022 stats: .230/.305/.444, 25 HR, 55 R, 73 RBI, 11 SB in 500 AB
118. Riley Greene - Tigers
Projection: .246/.318/.408, 10 HR, 47 R, 40 RBI, 9 SB in 338 AB
2022 stats: .253/.321/.362, 5 HR, 46 R, 42 RBI, 1 SB in 376 AB
149. Corbin Carroll - Diamondbacks
Projection: .237/.312/.392, 3 HR, 13 R, 11 RBI, 6 SB in 97 AB
2022 stats: .260/.330/.500, 4 HR, 13 R, 14 RBI, 2 SB in 104 AB
155. TJ Friedl - Reds
Projection: .249/.326/.399, 7 HR, 30 R, 23 RBI, 6 SB in 213 AB
2022 stats: .240/.314/.436, 8 HR, 33 R, 25 RBI, 7 SB in 225 AB
186. Michael Harris II - Braves
Projection: .226/.286/.369, 2 HR, 12 R, 8 RBI, 5 SB in 84 AB
2022 stats: .297/.339/.514, 19 HR, 75 R, 64 RBI, 20 SB in 414 AB