As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week, I talked about Chandler Simpson’s return to the major leagues and how aggressive he’s been as a base stealer when given the requisite playing time. It’s not certain how long he’ll stay up this time around, but he stole three more bases this week and he will be running while he’s here.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
While he made more headlines for snapping a bat over his knee after a strikeout, five stolen bases for Dane Myers last week was great to see.
He’s hitting well this season too with a .770 OPS while playing great defense in center field and playing everyday as of late. He’s a solid target in deeper leagues.
It’s fun to see the older fellas like Byron Buxton, Kyle Schwarber, and George Springer swipe a few bags.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
José Caballero just keeps on chugging along. He’s the first player to cross the 30-steal threshold this season and the pace he’s running at is incredible considering he isn’t even a full-time starter.
Kyle Tucker now has 41 home runs and 30 stolen bases over his last 162 games. Should that pace put him in play to be one of the first three or four players to come off the board in drafts next season?
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
After a hamstring injury earlier this season and then a recent concussion on a stolen base attempt, it feels as if this will be a lost season in terms of stolen bases for Jackson Merrill.
Somehow, Anthony Volpe is having nearly as bad a season on the base paths as he has at the plate so far.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The Baltimore Orioles may have just become the best team to target for stolen bases in the whole league. They allowed nine over the past week – more than any other team – and that’s because Adley Rutschman is on the injured list with an oblique strain.
Despite the few steps Rutschman has taken back at the plate over the last season or so, he’s still a stalwart defensively.
The 40 stolen bases attempted against him were towards the backend of starting catchers in the league and it’s clear teams don’t love running on him. That’s not true anymore with him on the shelf.
Instead, Gary Sánchez and Chadwick Tromp have been splitting catcher duties in his absence. Sánchez’s defensive shortcomings have been well noted throughout his career and six of the nine stolen bases they allowed as a team last week came with him behind the plate.
That’s partially because Baltimore had a series against the Rays, who are the most aggressive team in baseball, but not entirely. They also had three games against the Rangers, who picked on Sánchez.
During their game on Monday, Texas stole four bases against him. Two were stolen by Ezequiel Duran, who came into the game with one stolen base this season. Another was by center fielder Michael Helman. It was the first stolen base of his career.
Rutschman will be out through at least the All-Star break. With Sánchez catching most days – and hitting enough to warrant that spot – target the Orioles to stream stolen bases.
Importance of Raw Stolen Base Attempts
Shea Langeliers returned to the Athletics’ lineup this week after missing nearly a month with an oblique strain. Despite that layoff, he’s seen the third most stolen base attempts of any catcher this season behind Bo Naylor and Carlos Narváez.
Of that trio, Langeliers has by far the worst caught stealing rate. In fact, Langeliers has the second worst caught stealing rate for any catcher in the league who’s made at least 40 starts this season besides Martín Maldonado.
Upon his return, the Rays greeted him with six stolen base attempts in two games. Langeliers caught two of those six would-be base stealers.
Paying attention to these raw stolen base attempts is an imperfect science.
On one hand, to be near the top of the league in a volume stat like this simply means one has to be playing a lot. To play a lot, that simply means you’re a good player that warrants playing time.
Langeliers is a good hitter, has great scouting grades on his defense, and one of the quickest pop times in the league. Yet, there’s something about him (and the Athletics pitching staff) that is telling other teams to run at will against them.
Attempting a stolen base is the most important step to successfully stealing one. Paying attention to where these are being attempted most often can help figure out when they will come.
