As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week, I highlighted the Marlins as a team to target when searching for stolen bases and they continue to allow them at a breakneck pace.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Maikel Garcia is enjoying a breakout season in every sense of the term. So, it’s no surprise to see him stealing more bases now that he’s spending significantly more time on base.
He swiped 37 bags last year with just a .281 on-base percentage. That’s climbed to a .381 OBP right now and means he could be in line to increase that total by the end of the season.
Matt McLain seems like he’s getting his stolen base prowess back as well which is nice because he’s not contributing much fantasy value elsewhere at the moment.
Keep an eye on Dane Myers too. He’s cut his strikeout rate, hitting well, running efficiently, and playing a quality center field for the Marlins. That makes for a solid, under the radar deep league player.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
Disappointingly, Oneil Cruz was caught stealing this past week for the first time all season. Notably, that was the first time he was caught stealing since April 22nd of last season. He’d stolen 34 consecutive bases without being caught, a tremendous feat.
Also, I applaud Luis Robert Jr. for understanding the desperation of his situation in Chicago and stealing a base at every chance he gets.
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The Miami Marlins continue to be the easiest team to steal a base against. They allowed 10 more over the past week to give them a whopping 63 on the season, which is 20 more than the next closest team.
Last week, we highlighted newly called-up catcher Agustín Ramírez as a possible accelerator to the Marlins woes after base stealers were a perfect 13-for-13 with him behind the plate in just one week of play. Yet, he only caught one game over the past week and no bases were stolen against him in that game.
However, the league had no issue swiping bases against their other catchers Liam Hicks and Nick Fortes as well as the Marlins’ pitchers.
Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera have each been highlighted a few times in the column over the past month as two of the worst pitchers in the league at holding runners on. Nothing changed there last week as a handful of bases were stolen against each in their most recent start.
Yet, it was the reputation of players who were stealing these bases that took me aback.
Miguel Andujar took one off the battery of Cabrera and Fortes. Seth Brown joined in on the fun with Hicks behind the plate and Ronny Henriquez on the mound.
Then we have the Anthony Bender disaster. Teoscar Hernández did a combo steal of second and third base off Hicks and Bender. Tyler Soderstrom stole a bag off Bender and Fortes. Even Max Muncy – the Dodgers version – took one again off Bender and Fortes. He’d only stolen two bases over his prior 200 games and found a way to get one off those two.
Those five players I just mentioned might steal a combined 10 or so bases for the rest of the season, but had no issue running against this Marlins team. They’re set to play the White Sox and Cubs over the next week and remember, literally anyone can steal a base against them.
Otherwise, the Rays have surged ahead of the Braves, Astros, and Athletics as the second-easiest team to run on.
Part of that was Maikel Garcia going on his own stolen base barrage against them with three in one game. Trea Turner and the Phillies took three in a separate game as well.
Catcher Ben Rortvedt was behind the plate in both of those contests. Despite only starting 14 games so far this season, he’s allowed the 12th most stolen bases for any catcher in the league.
Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen were on the mound in one of those games each as well. Baz grades out as average holding runners on while Rasmussen is a bit below average.
Nationals Turn on the Jets
The Nationals led the league with 223 stolen bases last season, but had slowed their pace to begin this year. As of last Wednesday, they’d stolen 28 bases in total which was barely inside the top-10.
Well, they stole 12 in the last week alone and are now just six off the Brewers for most by any team.
Dylan Crews leads them with nine after a slow start to the season. CJ Abrams is next with seven after missing a bit of time due to injury and Luis Garcia Jr., James Wood, and Jacob Young all have at least five. There’s a legitimate chance all five of these players can swipe 30 bags this season.
Also of note, four of the Nationals 12 stolen bases last week in a game against the Reds where Nick Lodolo was on the mound and Tyler Stephenson was behind the plate. Lodolo, as a left-handed pitcher, has proven solid at holding runners on throughout his career.
On the other hand, Stephenson, who is recently back from injury, has always been poor at throwing out would-be base stealers. They’re 5-for-5 against him in just two starts behind the plate this season. That is something to watch moving forward.
