With the offseason’s biggest free agent domino finally falling over the weekend with Juan Soto agreeing to terms with the Mets on a landmark 15-year contract that could ultimately eclipse $800 million; the Orioles quietly made a splash of their own, reportedly agreeing to terms with free agent outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year, $49.5 million contract, which includes an opt-out following the 2025 season.
Tyler O’Neill has agreed to a three-year, $49.5 million deal with the Orioles, per source. Deal includes an opt-out clause after 2025 and is pending physical. @JonHeyman was on it.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 8, 2024
The 29-year-old slugger benefitted tremendously from a change of scenery last year in his Red Sox debut, putting together his strongest fantasy campaign -- launching 31 round-trippers in 113 contests -- since his iconic 34-homer, 15-steal breakthrough with the Cardinals back in 2021. It’s unrealistic for fantasy managers to expect a bounce-back in the batting average department given his persistent contact issues, and his durability remains a legitimate question mark given a laundry list of lingering physical issues that have cropped up in recent years. However, it’s a strong landing spot for O’Neill for fantasy purposes, especially with Baltimore altering the left-field fences to make Camden Yards more hitter-friendly.
How does Tyler O’Neill’s power translate to a new-look Camden Yards?
The aptly-named “Walltimore” era at Camden Yards is officially coming to an end next season with the Orioles moving the iconic ballpark’s left-field wall back in from distances ranging from 384 to 398 feet to 374 and 376 feet, respectively, in those spots. The actual height of the wall is also being lowered from 13 feet to eight in most areas and six feet, 11 inches in other spots. It won’t be as shallow as the ballpark’s original left-field dimensions, but it should greatly benefit right-handed sluggers like O’Neill on the margins, pushing a few extra shallow fly balls over the fence that would’ve been long fly outs in the previous three years. Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters last month that he envisions those alterations leading to a more neutral playing environment without reverting back completely to it’s previous the homer-friendly tendency. According to MLB.com’s Jake Rill, Statcast data reveals “there were 138 home runs lost over the past three seasons” as a result of the more pitcher-friendly alterations that were implemented prior to the 2022 campaign.
The #Orioles' 1st 2 big free-agent signings since news regarding Camden Yards LF wall change are sluggers whose extra-base hits mostly went pull side in '24.
— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) December 8, 2024
The right-handed bats of Tyler O'Neill and Gary Sánchez should play better in Baltimore than they would have from '22-24. https://t.co/YI89LWRICm pic.twitter.com/hHvleStOZW
We’re not denying that leaving Fenway Park, which Statcast park factors grade as second-best for right-handed batters over the last three seasons, represents a slight downgrade for O’Neill. Yet, his signature brand of stratospheric over-the-fence pop, which carried a 404-foot average home run distance last year, wasn’t going to be significantly impacted by his final landing spot. Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect a ton of regression in the over-the-fence power department, especially with those hitter-friendly dimension changes looming.
What should fantasy managers expect next season?
The oft-injured outfielder’s omnipresent durability concerns, and lingering contact issues, remain the biggest potential roadblocks to O’Neill finishing as a top 30 outfielder for fantasy purposes. He’s managed to suit up for 100 games just twice in the last four years and has also struck out at least a quarter of the time in each of his seven seasons at the highest level dating back to 2018, which includes being rung up in nearly 34 percent of his plate appearances last year with the Red Sox.
The warts are glaring, but they shouldn’t overshadow the fact that fantasy managers should confidently lock in 25 homers annually until further notice. O’Neill projects as a prototypical middle-of-the-order run-producing threat and the club’s strong supporting cast, especially with fantasy stalwarts Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman ahead of him in the lineup, should buoy his counting stats. Simply put, we’re confident projecting O’Neill for a batting average in the .230 to .240 range along with a 25-homer floor if he manages to stay healthy for roughly 100 contests. He’s a borderline top 40 outfielder for fantasy purposes heading into 2025 with the potential to jump several spots, if he manages to stay on the field.
Where does Baltimore go from here?
O’Neill’s arrival provides the Orioles with a logical replacement for corner outfielder Anthony Santander, who seems highly likely to depart via free agency. It also shores up a right-handed power vacuum in their lineup, which was extremely lefty-heavy entering the offseason. Frankly, the club’s biggest issues remain on the pitching side of the ledger where failing to retain ace Corbin Burnes, or a suitable replacement, would be disastrous. There is work to be done, but O’Neill helps considerably to shore up the lineup.
