Outfield Outliers

Listed below are the positional rankings put together by Ryan Boyer, Christopher Crawford, Nate Grimm, Matthew Pouliot, D.J. Short, Dave Shovein and Drew Silva. There are ultimately going to be some disagreements, presenting an opportunity for the writer to explain why they’re higher or lower on that player than the rest of the group.

Player	Boyer	Crawford	Grimm	Pouliot	Short	Shovein	Silva	Staff	Composite
Mike Trout	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Mookie Betts	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.14
Giancarlo Stanton	5	4	3	3	4	5	3	3	3.86
Bryce Harper	4	3	5	6	3	4	5	4	4.29
Charlie Blackmon	2	5	4	5	7	3	7	5	4.71
Aaron Judge	6	6	6	4	5	6	4	6	5.29
George Springer	7	7	8	8	6	8	6	7	7.14
J.D. Martinez	8	8	12	11	8	7	9	8	9
Andrew Benintendi	9	11	10	10	10	9	10	9	9.86
Christian Yelich	11	10	7	7	11	15	12	10	10.43
Rhys Hoskins	17	16	11	9	9	12	8	11	11.71
Justin Upton	10	9	16	16	15	10	13	12	12.71
Marcell Ozuna	14	14	14	12	13	11	11	13	12.71
Byron Buxton	15	15	18	14	12	13	15	14	14.57
Billy Hamilton	16	23	9	13	14	18	14	15	15.29
Starling Marte	13	13	20	20	16	14	22	16	16.86
A.J. Pollock	19	12	17	15	23	17	17	17	17.14
Tommy Pham	12	21	25	26	19	16	16	18	19.29
Yoenis Cespedes	20	22	23	22	21	23	20	19	21.57
Andrew McCutchen	18	20	22	23	20	21	28	20	21.71
Ian Desmond	21	26	19	17	25	25	19	21	21.71
Ryan Braun	23	18	27	18	17	24	26	22	21.86
Lorenzo Cain	22	19	24	30	24	22	21	23	23.14
Manuel Margot	26	35	15	21	22	31	18	24	24
Khris Davis	24	17	26	29	32	19	25	25	24.57
Gregory Polanco	27	31	21	19	18	33	23	26	24.57
Ender Inciarte	25	32	13	24	26	29	24	27	24.71
Yasiel Puig	30	24	30	25	28	27	27	28	27.29
Eddie Rosario	31	27	28	27	31	26	30	29	28.57
Adam Eaton	28	29	29	36	27	32	29	30	30
Ronald Acuna	29	39	36	28	30	28	35	31	32.14
Nomar Mazara	34	30	33	32	29	35	33	32	32.29
Domingo Santana	32	28	31	37	52	20	31	33	33
Adam Jones	39	25	37	39	37	30	34	34	34.43
Kyle Schwarber	35	38	32	35	34	41	32	35	35.29
Odubel Herrera	36	36	35	41	35	44	37	36	37.71
Steven Souza	43	37	43	38	36	40	40	37	39.57
Brett Gardner	33	34	48	46	41	39	48	38	41.29
Bradley Zimmer	46	46	39	40	43	42	41	39	42.43
Kevin Kiermaier	41	41	41	52	38	34	51	40	42.57
Michael Taylor	57	NR	34	31	33	47	36	41	42.71
Jay Bruce	38	33	57	58	40	36	50	42	44.57
Michael Brantley	48	51	38	42	47	53	39	43	45.43
Delino DeShields Jr.	37	59	42	43	39	49	58	44	46.71
Avisail Garcia	52	45	47	47	54	43	46	45	47.71
Randal Grichuk	54	NR	40	34	44	NR	44	46	48.29
Aaron Hicks	40	NR	51	49	42	46	54	47	49
Trey Mancini	49	40	58	45	45	NR	45	48	49
Mitch Haniger	44	43	52	57	53	45	53	49	49.57
Yasmany Tomas	NR	NR	45	33	56	NR	38	50	50.71
Mark Trumbo	50	49	NR	44	60	51	42	51	51
Dexter Fowler	56	54	46	50	48	52	52	52	51.14
Shin-Soo Choo	42	58	NR	51	57	55	49	53	53.29
Adam Duvall	51	44	NR	NR	NR	37	NR	54	53.71
Michael Conforto	NR	42	NR	54	NR	38	NR	55	54
Stephen Piscotty	NR	48	50	NR	51	50	59	56	54.29
Max Kepler	55	55	55	56	46	59	57	57	54.71
Hunter Renfroe	53	NR	59	55	49	NR	47	58	55
Lewis Brinson	47	NR	49	NR	55	57	NR	59	55.86
Matt Kemp	NR	NR	44	53	NR	NR	55	60	56.57

Outfield Outliers

Ryan Boyer had Charlie Blackmon 2. The composite ranking was 4.71.

Blackmon finished as fantasy’s No. 1 overall hitter last season when he produced a sparkling .331/.399/.601 batting line with 37 home runs, 104 RBI, 137 runs scored and 14 stolen bases. It would be asking a lot for him to do that again, but I place more trust in him than any outfielder not named Mike Trout. Blackmon’s power has been on the rise the last few years, and while he might not slug 37 longballs again, we have every reason to believe he’ll produce another large number while he calls Coors Field home. We could also see a big bump in his already-healthy RBI total if the Rockies move him to the middle of the batting order as has been discussed. It’s true that Blackmon’s stolen bases have dropped off, but it would be rash to think they’re going to totally evaporate, and, as already mentioned, he was still fantasy’s top hitter while “only” swiping 14 bases. Oh, and did I mention he’s averaged 153 games and 674 plate appearances over the last four seasons? I don’t have any major issues with the other outfielders under consideration for the No. 2 spot. I just think Blackmon’s floor is the safest, and he’s proven the ceiling is also as good as it gets. – Ryan Boyer (@RyanPBoyer)

Nate Grimm had Billy Hamilton 9. The composite ranking was 15.29.

I would explain to you the laws of supply and demand, but I actually failed my economics course in college -- the marginal utility I got from skipping class to watch The Office reruns outweighed my concern about making sure I made it to my midterm, apparently. If I did understand economics, though, I think I would tell you that when power production is at an all-time high, the demand for power hitters is, or at least should be, lessened. Meanwhile, stolen bases have gone down as more guys swing for the fences, and even the steals that do happen are largely concentrated to a select handful of guys. Hamilton remains an elite source of stolen bases, the kind of player that single-handedly covers a category so you can focus the rest of your roster-building efforts elsewhere. The guys I ranked close behind Hamilton -- Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Marcell Ozuna, etc. -- are great hitters, but can be approximated later. There’s no off-brand substitute for Hamilton’s elite steal production. – Nate Grimm (@Nate_Grimm)

D.J. Short had A.J. Pollock 23. The composite ranking was 17.14.

I probably would have had Pollock about six or seven spots higher before the news about the humidor at Chase Field. I expect it will have a trickle-down effect on the lineup as a whole, which will show up both in counting stats and rate stats. Maybe it will turn out that I’m overreacting about the possible impact on Pollock, but it’s not like he was amazing when healthy last year. And the issue of health can’t be ignored. After a fractured right elbow limited him to 12 games in 2016, he missed about seven weeks last year with a groin injury. As he goes into his age-30 season, this must be factored into his price tag. Ultimately, I think fantasy owners could find similar production from outfielders later on in drafts. For example, Lorenzo Cain is going 30 picks later according to NFBC. Meanwhile, Manuel Margot is going about 90 picks later. So this is also partially about context among outfielders. – D.J. Short (@djshort)

Dave Shovein had Domingo Santana 20. The composite ranking was 33.

Many in the fantasy community have soured on Santana since the Brewers remade their outfield by acquiring Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain this winter. Remember the old adage, though: talent wins out in the end. Sure, it looks like he’s blocked from everyday at-bats at the moment, but that’s a problem that I expect to be corrected before the start of the regular season. The 25-year-old outfielder broke out in a big way in 2017, slashing .278/.371/.505 with 88 runs, 30 homers, 85 RBI and 15 stolen bases. That’s the type of five-category production that fantasy owners drool over. Keep in mind, he’s just entering the prime of his career. I anticipate that either he or Ryan Braun will be dealt before the regular season begins, so now is the time to buy Santana at slightly reduced prices. Over the last couple of weeks he has been going off the board around pick 80 overall, which is only around half a round lower than he was prior to the Yelich and Cain moves. – Dave Shovein (@DaveShovein)

Matthew Pouliot had Randal Grichuk 34. The composite ranking was 48.29.

Even though he spent half of his time in a ballpark that punishes right-handed power hitters, Grichuk averaged one homer every 19 at-bats the last three years. He also spent most of that time playing for a manager who didn’t trust him and knowing that any 0-for-4 game had a decent chance of putting him on the bench the next day. To be fair, Grichuk isn’t a great player; he strikes out a bunch and his career OBP is a tad shy of .300. He’s pretty good defensively, though, and both versions of WAR have him worth at least two wins per year over his three seasons, even though he hasn’t reached 500 plate appearances in any of them. This year should be his chance to put in a full season for the first time; the Blue Jays could have had their pick of cheap free agent outfielders, but they felt good enough about Grichuk to give up a valuable reliever (Dominic Leone) and a prospect to acquire him from St. Louis. Grichuk will have to adjust to a new set of pitchers in the AL, but he’s in a more favorable offensive environment now and he’ll no longer be stuck batting directly in front of the pitcher half of the time. He seems like a really good bet for 30 homers. It probably won’t come with more than a .250 average, but the power should be sufficient to make him a top-30 outfielder. – Matthew Pouliot (@matthewpouliot)

Previous Outliers

Catcher

First Base

Second Base

Shortstop

Third Base