Big Wednesday brought out the boom stick last night and once you got past the spectacle of the Grizzlies and Spurs’ triple-overtime thriller, which was the game of the year so far, fantasy owners could move onto major fantasy storylines including names like Danny Green, Chandler Parsons, Andre Drummond, and Mason Plumlee.
Injury considerations need to be made with Marc Gasol and Nicolas Batum, and everybody’s favorite Giannis Antetokounmpo gave everybody a scare just days after Jabari Parker lost the rest of his season. Speaking of freakish 7-footers, Rudy Gobert stopped the Internet for about 15 minutes with this.
Dwyane Wade scored 42 points, James Harden nearly broke the pinball machine, and Shelvin Mack couldn’t miss. Rajon Rondo and Lance Stephenson have loosened up the trade market and maybe we’ll get a payback for all the lame trade deadlines over the past few years. The Kings are flying by the seat of their pants right now and they’re in every rumor out there.
Did I mention it was Drake Night in Toronto?
So yeah, last night was a pretty good night to be a basketball fan, and an even better night to be an opportunistic fantasy owner, so let’s break this thing down as if Kyrie Irving were defending us.
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THE DADDY MACK WILL MAKE YOU
No Jeff Teague? No problem. The Hawks took their act to Cleveland and put all of the Kings’ men into depressed states of embarrassment and postgame shenanigans. Their newfound depth and improved starting lineup have them sitting in a tier with the Wizards and Raptors, and last night it was their two-pronged attack of Dennis Schroder (10 points, 10 assists, 22 minutes) and scorching hot Shelvin Mack (24 points, 7-of-8 FGs, 6-of-6 3PTs, three assists, 23 minutes) that had Kyrie Irving taking extra jumpers following the game.
Of course, he should have been working on his defensive slides as many reporters pointed out in Cleveland, because these guys ate … him … alive. Schroder is posting top-175 value in his 17.4 mpg backup role and he’d be a must-grab player if anything happened to Teague, even if the past has shown Mike Budenholzer relying on this duo in a timeshare. The upside is obviously the appeal in that situation, and for Mack he needs to show up a lot more before owners take notice.
Al Horford scored 20 points on 10-of-14 shooting with just two rebounds, four assists and two blocks as he brings back top 30-40 value so far this year. Considering most were planning on a slow start, he’s right where owners want him to be. Kyle Korver had an off-night with four points, five boards, one steal and one block but he’s still a top 20-35 play as his shooting numbers come back to Earth. DeMarre maintained his must-own credentials with 13 points, three treys and four boards, and the Hawks moved their record up to an impressive 18-7 on the year. Teague is day-to-day with his hamstring injury.
LET’S GET DEFENSIVE
Oh boy did the Cavs look flustered after last night’s game. It was the first time I was genuinely worried for David Blatt, as the emotional coach was riding the lowest of lows while declaring his team’s performance “embarrassing.” That continued to the locker room where LeBron James snapped at a reporter for asking about that particular quote, and then as mentioned Irving moved back onto the floor for shooting drills that made him look tone deaf about the laughable defense he played last night.
Lesson No. 1. Don’t buy the local reporters’ crap about a bad defensive player playing a new brand of defense in December when many of them are trying to make nice with the guy they’re going to cover for the next six months. Who knows, maybe it’s the curse of Kate Middleton and LeBron’s now famous hug, but all kidding aside this was never going to be pretty in Year 1 and LeBron’s immediate task is knocking Irving down about five pegs until he plays defense first and offense second. They’re already a limited team defensively when playing at peak levels. If he’s going to be a turnstile they’re not a lock to make the Eastern Conference Finals, and aside from getting extra help via trade I think James can get through to him.
Kevin Love turned in a nice statistical outing with 13 points, 10 boards, six assists and two threes, and he has slowly marched up to a top 20-30 value on the year. That top-15 mark I pegged a month ago looks doable and at the same time Irving (nine points, six assists, that’s it) has also started moving toward preseason projections as he dipped into the second round in standard formats.
Dion Waiters scored 21 points with three rebounds, four assists and a three, but all you need to know about his value to the team can be summed up as they desperately try to find a shooting guard on the market. No, I’m not worrying about any Waiters hot streak this season, barring a bunch of injuries to everybody around him. Anderson Varejao stunk up the joint with four points and two boards with one steal, and he’s returning late-round value this season and that should have been the expectation the whole way. If you want to make a move for a low-to-mid level free agent I wouldn’t kill you over it since Love’s presence will necessarily cap any upside.
THE THREE AMIGOS
The Suns should have known better to put sacrificial lamb Alex Len in the cage with Big Al Jefferson last night, but they made the move to him in the starting lineup and eventually the training wheels had to come off. After Jefferson made easy work of Len the team clawed back from a near 20-point deficit and particularly down the stretch the trio of Isaiah Thomas, Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe looked like a fluid, dangerous offense.
Thomas hit the key buckets late and after a 12-point fourth quarter he finished with 23 points, three rebounds, three assists and three treys. It’s going to be real awkward if the Sacramentans who put all of their eggs into Darren Collison’s bucket during November basketball have to walk back all the trash they’ve talked. Dragic (back) returned and scored 20 points on 8-of-17 shooting with three rebounds, eight assists, a steal and a three, and Bledsoe was the quiet one with 15 points on 5-of-15 shooting, two rebounds, two assists and a three.
One thing I thought was interesting was late in the game during a stoppage Thomas called the entire team into the middle of the key like he was the captain, with Dragic and Bledsoe both entering the huddle as willing teammates. Chemistry has been cited as an issue there, and probably overblown, as a three point guard attack would qualify as an experiment that needs a month or so to take off.
Markieff Morris (13 and eight) got ejected after 24 minutes and it was immediately apparent that any sort of release valve for the crowded rotation could pay dividends for the entire group. It’s not just the guard situation that’s crowded, it’s everywhere and that’s how Jeff Hornacek wants it.
Len finished with 10 points, four rebounds, one steal and one block in his 19 minutes, and he is noticeably stronger and more nimble compared to last year. I’m not sure they’re going to go away from a timeshare between he and Mile Plumlee (two points, seven boards, one steal, one block, 19 minutes), but Len is somebody to watch closely. He could be a poor man’s Jonas Valanciunas with decent percentages and low volume on offense.
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION
The Hornets are going to be a mess until they trade Lance Stephenson, who played 25 minutes and suffered the always pleasant-sounding groin bruise before giving way to his normal fourth-quarter benching. He scored seven points with four rebounds and two assists, and even under optimal conditions he doesn’t have much upside due to fantasy deficiencies with his money counting stats, let alone enough upside to justify this crap.
It’s unclear what the team will do to fill their already weak wing positions once they can deal Stephenson, but we’re starting to see Kemba Walker (27 points, 9-of-20 FGs, four threes, 5-of-6 FTs, seven assists, one steal) and Al Jefferson (28 and 10, two steals, one block) play like it’s their team again. Walker might have done that a little too much in a regrettable final three minutes of bad shots, and owners should get ready to make a buy low offer the next time he stumbles. He has rehabilitated his value into the top 65-70 range, and he has some upward mobility since he won’t shoot 38.2 percent all year.
Gary Neal (13 points, three treys, four assists, 27 minutes) is worth a look in deeper leagues if the Hornets decide to rely on him in a post-Lance environment, and Cody Zeller (seven points, nine boards, one steal, one block, 24 minutes) quietly had a good night. Zeller needs to string together a few of these before he’s worth a look in 12-14 team formats.
BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME
The Magic need good efforts from most of their key guys to turn in wins and with Victor Oladipo (seven points, 3-of-12 FGs, three assists) getting shut down by Rajon Rondo things started to unravel on both ends of the floor. There were no real surprises in the box, as Tobias Harris (17 points, three steals, four boards, 7-of-8 FTs) and Nikola Vucevic (18 and 13, no steals or blocks) did the heavy lifting. Channing Frye proved his late-round worth with 13 points, three treys, five boards and two steals.
Evan Fournier owners held onto hope after 13 points, two rebounds, four assists, two steals and zero threes in 35 minutes, and Kyle O’Quinn logged 23 minutes with 11 points, five boards and a block. Am I panicked about O’Quinn? Nope. As long as he gets his 20 mpg he’ll be a late-round value and everything on top of that is icing on the cake. He’s still a top-100 value in … you guessed it … 19 mpg.
TRADE ME ALREADY
The Rajon Rondo trade circus could start to get old for teammates but you wouldn’t know it by last night as most of them played well in a win over the Magic. Rondo scored 13 points with seven rebounds, 15 assists, two steals, one three and six turnovers, and his tag team buddy in trade talks Jeff Green scored 16 points with two threes and a steal. The big story was Kelly Olynyk, who put up 15 points on 6-of-8 shooting with two threes, six rebounds, one steal and two blocks. As usual, owners need to hold him whenever he has an off-night.
Tyler Zeller maintained his low-end value with 10 points, seven boards, one steal and two blocks in just 20 minutes, and Jared Sullinger’s slump continued with 16 points, two threes and one block but just three rebounds in 24 minutes. The only concern for owners would be that a Rondo exit lowers the quality of offense, reduces easy looks and kills guys’ efficiency, but I wouldn’t do anything but discount a round or two at most and that’s being pretty paranoid at this stage of the game.
A MARK CUBAN HUG IS WORTH TWO IN THE BUSH … OR SOMETHING
While the Mavs are front and center in the Rajon Rondo trade extravaganza, they were able to easily dispatch a Pistons team on the ropes. It was business as usual for Dirk Nowitzki (18 points, 10 boards, two threes, one steal), Tyson Chandler (16 points, nine rebounds, four assists, one steal, one block) and Monta Ellis (25 points, eight assists, one three, one steal) – and I wouldn’t get too nuts readjusting their projections even if Rondo somehow arrives in Dallas. Ellis would be the guy that could theoretically get hurt with the ball in Rondo’s hands more, but he’s a passer and that could lead to better opportunities or no change in value as was the case when Jose Calderon was around.
Brandan Wright’s name has been tossed into the mix and that’s a big issue in my mind from a trading standpoint, since the Mavs are already thin in their frontcourt given Chandler’s injury history and they’d need a big man coming back in any deal or face playing Charlie Villanueva or Greg Smith backup minutes. Wright scored 10 points with five rebounds and three blocks, and a move away from Dallas could be a boon if he lands somewhere he’s needed, but keep in mind that he gets a lot of block chances due to the defensive deficiencies of the Mavs.
Chandler Parsons could be hurt by a Rondo pickup because he is second-to-third fiddle at times already, but the same thinking for Ellis applies here as well with the potential for better looks. A solid buy low candidate for weeks in this space, he’s predictably improved his shooting and came two points away from a career-high last night with 32 points on 10-of-17 shooting, four threes, 8-of-9 free throws, seven boards, two assists and two steals. He’s almost playing up to his ADP at top 40-60 value on the year.
JUST TRADE THEM ALREADY
The Pistons are praying the Kings are crazy enough to take Josh Smith off their hands, and the two sides almost had a deal this summer but Stan Van Gundy opted out of it to see what he had in Smith – not to mention the Kings reportedly didn’t offer much. As I’ve mentioned a few times here the Pistons had their eyes heavily on Isaiah Thomas, but couldn’t find a taker for Brandon Jennings to open up space for Thomas to start.
SVG didn’t do much to enhance their trade value last night, benching both of them down the stretch. Jennings finished with a respectable 13 points on 5-of-14 shooting with one three, three rebounds and seven assists, which temporarily stops the bleeding, as he has bottomed out at late-round value in 12-team leagues.
He did this earlier in the year and started to pull out of it, and the only thing owners can do is have their finger on the trade button when he goes on an inevitable hot streak. I’ve mentioned that I sheepishly had him higher in my preseason rankings under the expectation that he could not implode and hold down starter’s minutes, but with the way the Pistons have unraveled and all the trade rumors he needs a little luck to come out of the rough patch with strong season-long value.
Smith (seven points, two rebounds, four assists, three steals, one block) is going to be a mess wherever he plays unless it’s for a team willing to let him junk up a game every time out. Sacramento would be intriguing if anything because they’d break their necks to make him work out in an acquisition, but let’s not go far down that road until we have to.
Andre Drummond, at least recently, looks like he and SVG have ditched the attempt to make him a post player, at least for now. The result is that he’s focusing on lobs and position and all the dirty work that made him such a great fantasy play last season. He scored 19 points on 9-of-16 shooting with 24 rebounds, four steals and three blocks, and the field goal percentage improvement is underway. Hopefully you bought low or held as recommended.
As mentioned in the Dose, I’m not bailing out on Jodie Meeks after his slow nine-point night in 20 minutes. He’s easily rusty, the Pistons love him, and they’ll continue to increase his usage as the year goes on.
MAKING A MATCH
I have to say I’m a fan of Quin Snyder, and not just because he takes great pictures, but because he has this young group playing as well as one can expect a 7-19 team to play. And let’s be real, they’re a playoff contender in the Eastern Conference, and they went into Miami and beat an injury-riddled Heat team last night.
The best takeaway I’ve seen from them this year is what used to be a sore spot down low due to mismatched pieces in Enes Kanter (18 points, six boards, one steal) and Derrick Favors (ankle, 11 points, six boards, one steal, one block).
Part of this has been Kanter’s transformation from heavy-set stretch-five to a lithe, quick and nimble stretch-four with savvy offensive skills and good rebounding ability. He’s still a liability on defense in both fantasy and reality, but the Jazz can play him next to Favors and feel pretty good about it now on the offensive end.
Now when you add Rudy Gobert, who can play with either player, there is some chance for real synergy because they can handle a lot of different looks from opponents. They’re still young and inexperienced and that’s going to lead to a lot of losing, but fantasy owners can treat this as a positive situation in which Kanter can be viewed as a solid late-round value, Favors can keep doing what he’s doing in the top-50 range, and Gobert is a must-own upside guy already returning top 115-150 value (9/8 cat) in just 17.8 mpg.
Trevor Booker (12 minutes, ejection) is the piece holding Gobert back in the immediate future, and he’s never been a healthy guy, but regardless the Jazz will continue to increase Gobert’s minutes because they’re a better team with him on the floor. Cover up the name on the jersey and you might have thought he was a bigger Anthony Davis last night.
Even if they weren’t trending toward being a more cohesive unit I’d be holding Gobert, but the fact that they are meshing so well under Snyder makes it a no-brainer situation.
HEY WHERE’D EVERYBODY GO?
Things sure escalated fast in Miami now didn’t they? Chris Bosh’s calf injury has him more week-to-week than day-to-day, Luol Deng (31 minutes, eight points, four rebounds, one steal) feels like he could break down at any moment, and Dwyane Wade (42 points, 12-of-19 FGs, 16-of-21 FTs, two threes, four rebounds, three assists, six turnovers, zero STL/BLKs) is well, Dwyane Wade. If anybody sneezes in the wrong direction it’s possible we could be seeing Mario Chalmers and ‘four other guys’ real quick.
Of course Chalmers didn’t do much with Wade handling everything last night in their loss to the Jazz, scoring 11 points on 3-of-13 shooting (1-of-5 3PTs, 4-of-5 FTs) with one rebound, zero assists and two steals in 32 minutes. Be patient folks. He could end up being an early round guy if everything breaks perfectly (read: perfectly) and he’s almost guaranteed the mid-round projections he had before his disastrous preseason.
Looking for value elsewhere is almost pointless while Wade is healthy as nobody else is going to get the touches they need to boost otherwise subpar fantasy attributes. Shawne Williams (five points, four rebounds, one three, one steal, 29 minutes) his your hope-and-a-prayer guy so give him a look now that Josh McRoberts is fighting to not be shut down for the year due to knee surgery. And yes, drop McBob now that he turned my speed bump from last week’s articles into a spike strip.
POSITION OF WEAKNESS
The Nets are in a weird spot with their ownership essentially throwing in the towel on being a big-money squad as they look to deal their toxic assets from a position of weakness. Their pain is your gain as two preseason sleepers are in prime position to be owned and useful for perhaps the rest of the year without much interruption.
Mason Plumlee has been a recommended add for a few games now and he turned in another great one with 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting, eight rebounds and two blocks. Yes, he hit just 5-of-11 free throws and that’s a huge problem right now, but it would be fairly shocking for his 41.1 percent mark to not jump considerably toward last year’s 62.6 percent mark. He’s also hitting just 48.6 percent from the field and most of his appeal has been wrapped up in last year’s 65.9 percent rate. Like teammate Mirza Teletovic, who should also be owned in all standard leagues, their veteran teammates in the frontcourt just aren’t built to sustain big minutes on a team without direction.
Jarrett Jack (four points, three assists, one steal, one block) has somehow hung on in a deep 12-team league of mine and he’s been terrible lately. The thinking was that maybe Deron Williams (11 points, seven assists) or Joe Johnson (17 points, eight boards) get traded and he can step into a serious role, but he’s more filler than producer until that happens.
THE RAPTURE IS UPON US
It was Drake night in Toronto and the Raptors dusted off their terrible uniforms of years’ past before dusting the outclassed Nets in a playoff rematch. There were no great revelations, as Terrence Ross (nine points, two threes), Greivis Vasquez (13 points, three boards, three assists, 16 minutes) and James Johnson (five points, six boards, three assists, one block) continue to be mostly quiet with Ross being the only must-own 12-team player in the bunch.
Kyle Lowry (20 points, 12 assists, two steals, two threes) did Kyle Lowry things, Amir Johnson (13 points, nine boards) picked up his game next to fellow must-own PF Patrick Patterson, who produces more like a shooting guard these days. Similarly valued at a top-100 level in 8-cat leagues, Patterson is way ahead of Johnson in 9-cat leagues where his 0.7 turnovers per game has him returning top-70 value to Johnson’s top-100 mark.
BEST GAME OF THE YEAR
We’re necessarily frantic on nights with eight or more games and we essentially pick-and-choose our spots to let the Twitter feed go unchecked and just watch the game. Last night’s Battle of the Titans between the Grizzlies and Spurs could have been the last thing I did as my house burned down around me. From Marc Gasol’s travel-induced bank shot three to send the game to overtime, to Tim Duncan’s touch-every-part-of-the-rim heave to force another overtime, to Mike Conley’s cool set of daggers, and Danny Green’s coming out party – the comparison to Rocky vs. Apollo was probably a little bit light.
The Grizzlies flew out of San Antonio snapping a 10-game losing streak there, and the key takeaway from a fantasy perspective is that Marc Gasol (26 points, nine boards, one three, one steal, two blocks) was seen limping again, presumably due to the right knee that’s had issues this season and the same one that he hurt last year. There’s no way to sugarcoat this – it has to be a concern for owners and the good news is that it’s flying somewhat underneath the radar. If you want to make a move it’s possible to get a top-20 guy without much trouble I’d guess. It’s a matter of risk mitigation and considering the Grizzlies know they can’t win a championship without the guy, they’re probably going to look at giving him rest where the schedule permits.
That’s your best case scenario as a larger guy limping in December doesn’t stand a great chance of going without at least some time off the rest of the way. Obviously, if the knee issues move from one isolated issue early in the year in the eyes of the laymen, to multiple mentions of it in the news and sporadic days off, owners won’t be able to target a top-15 player that is the sweet spot of this sell-high rant.
Zach Randolph went off for 21 and 21 with two steals and he needs these types of nights to float his defensive stat liabilities. He’s returning a top-65 value so far this year with numbers that are slightly up over last season, and he’s finding some extra value in more efficient, lower-volume shooting from the field. It’s fair to wonder if in his 13th season if he can continue to rebound at his best rate (11.4 per game) since 2010-11.
Mike Conley continued his rise up the charts with countless big plays, finishing with 14 points on 5-of-19 shooting (including two threes), eight rebounds, 10 assists and two steals. The big thing for owners to key on as they wonder if he can take the leap from his current top-40 value to something higher is whether or not he can improve on his 1.2 steals per game. In past campaigns in which he has returned second round value, he’s been up over two steals per game and he has steadily trended down for the last two seasons.
Vince Carter also joined the party with a season-high 18 points, five threes, three boards, three assists and three steals in a whopping 41 minutes, augmented obviously by the three overtimes and the fact this was the game of the year so far. Carter has the ability to run a top-100 streak off once he’s ready to settle into his 23-25 minute role, and it’s pretty logical that he take the first month or two of the year slow as a 53-year old man still playing in the NBA. I’d restrict any speculative adds to 14-team leagues for now, but 12-team owners may want to jump ahead of the curve if he does it again next time out.
DON’T ACT LIKE YOU’RE NOT IMPRESSED
We should have seen the Danny Green thing coming. I had him at No. 52/91 (9/8 cat) in the Bruski 150 and wrote “he was annoying last year but what happens (if you survive) is that you become a Pop guy.” And that’s what this is all about. He’s returning top 15-30 value (9/8 cat) on the season, averaging 12.2 points with 2.5 treys, 4.2 boards, 1.4 steals, 1.3 blocks while hitting 46.5 percent from the field and a low-volume 96 percent from the foul line. The big number though is 30.6, which is his mpg this season compared to 24.3 mpg last year and well above the 26 mpg that I gave him for my projections.
Pop still seethes in his general direction, but like those that came before him he has earned the next level of his trust, which is a long uphill climb and one that will eventually see him playing starter’s minutes one day. As usual, it’s all about defense with Pop and while everybody has overrated Green in the past for the things that stand out – the steals, blocks and occasional great defensive play in transition. The parts that have gone from ‘terrible’ to serviceable in Pop’s mind (and on tape) are that he’s not screwing up assignments in transition defense, staying away from junky threes, and his decision-making on offense has come around.
It all culminated in a box score never before seen in the NBA, as he hit 9-of-17 shots for 25 points with seven 3-pointers, seven rebounds, three assists, two steals and five blocks in 52 rollicking minutes. He had just one turnover before he dropped the mic, and the story doesn’t stop there for fantasy owners.
Setting aside the foot or knee issue (whichever it is) from his collision in last night’s game, which clearly didn’t impact his production but will be on the radar nonetheless – he is going to keep on doing this.
If you want to point out that his free throw percentage is going to drop somewhere near his 82.1 percent career mark you’re absolutely right, but at one free throw attempt per game it hardly matters. Yes, he’s both taking more shots and hitting them at a higher rate, but not at an obscene rate in either instance. The rest of his numbers are in line with career norms. If anything, he could improve as pieces around him get hurt and/or rested.
If you want to tap the breaks a bit and assume he can’t keep up the 30.6 mpg workload I wouldn’t argue to the death over it, but he’s passed the proverbial Pop test and my 26 mpg prediction from before the year is the absolute low and you can accurately use my B150 evaluation as your guide. Everything on top of that is gravy, and considering owners are generally freaked out about his staying power I’d reach out to the guy thinking this is a neon-green sell-high moment and swap out any top 40-60 player (9/8 cat) to get him.
The rest of the box was full of Spursian greatness, with Tim Duncan posting 23 points, 16 boards, five assists, two steals and three blocks in a value-killing 9-of-22 shooting night (5-of-15 FTs). Manu Ginobili also saw his otherwise big night dashed by shooting issues, as he hit just 7-of-20 shots (including four threes) and 3-of-7 free throws to go with eight rebounds, eight assists and no defensive stats. Boris Diaw went for 17 and 13 with five assists and three treys as he hovers in his typical top-140 realm, and the next step for owners is to plan for off nights from Duncan and possibly Ginobili on Friday against the Blazers.
THE GREEK TWEAK
The Bucks got another scare last night when Giannis Antetokounmpo went down with a left ankle sprain in their loss to the Blazers, but the injury reportedly isn’t serious and there’s at least one report that he’ll play tonight in Sacramento. I detailed a lot of these guys in today’s Dose and yesterday’s Dose for that matter, but I did see one item pop up since I’ve written and that is that John Henson could return next week from his foot injury.
Henson was practically a non-factor averaging just 12.2 mpg but with just Ersan Ilyasova (also returning as soon as next week) as a true power forward it’s possible those two split the minutes at the position. Ilyasova has hit 50 percent of his shots this year and is sitting at a low-minute late-round value already, and he’s a recommended speculative add, but Henson is somebody to keep a close eye on too. He can push a mid-round upside when everything is working for him but he’s a notch or two below Ilyasova simply because he hasn’t shown us anything this season. I still like Khris Middleton (17 points, four threes, 33 minutes) as a speculative, low-end add for the chance he can parlay the added opportunity into late-round value.
CHEAPIES
Once the late-game reports were filed after the Blazers’ win over the Bucks last night, the story on Nicolas Batum wasn’t quite as tidy as his 36-minute outing would suggest after his big fall. Larry Sanders cheaply pushed him on a dunk and it sent him sprawling Andrew Bogut style, with his ribs and right (shooting) wrist taking the fall. He’s getting tests on his wrist today and you guys know how I feel about shooting wrist injuries – better to take them seriously and be happy if things work out better.
There are two separate things going on with Batum – his season-long shooting slump that he started to show small signs of breaking out of earlier in the week – and then this injury. Obviously owners will want to try to be ahead of the curve if news on that front worsens, but if this proves to be nothing we’re looking at the same thing as last week – which is a now an amazing buy-low opportunity. He’s looking at 5-10 percent gains in field goal and 3-point percentages if his numbers move back to career norms. Yes, the wrist injury is the last thing he needs, but if he escapes unscathed owners have an awesome window here.
I covered Thomas Robinson’s big night (15 points, 16 rebounds, one steal, one block) in today’s Dose and spoiler alert – it wasn’t big enough to move the needle. Chris Kaman (six points, three boards) had a bad matchup and was questionable to play due to the birth of his child and those are two legitimate reasons to keep him rostered.
If anything is seriously wrong with Batum’s wrist, and I’m talking a multi-week absence, then Allen Crabbe, Steve Blake and Will Barton will be a hot mess to sort through. One would want to get a gauge on Terry Stotts and then make their move.
NIGHT AND DAY
The Pacers snapped an eight-game losing streak against the Lakers on Monday and found themselves outclassed by the surging Clippers last night in their seventh straight road loss. Roy Hibbert (seven points, three boards, zero blocks) played just 16 foul-plagued minutes and even if he hadn’t fouled out he was a sieve when on the floor. I’m still astounded how he pulled the wool over DPOY voters’ eyes last season.
He missed his window to do heavy damage now that David West (17 points, 10 boards, two steals) is back and George Hill’s return is seemingly right around the corner. Along with durability concerns that go with being his size, not to mention an ankle injury from a few weeks back, there’s enough reason to settle on a late-round projection the rest of the way.
I’m selling virtually the whole team with Hill participating in most of Tuesday’s practice, though he still has a bit to go conditioning-wise before he gets back on the floor. Rodney Stuckey (12 points, 27 minutes), C.J. Miles (17 points, two threes, 35 minutes), C.J. Watson (12 points, four assists, five turnovers, 29 minutes) and Solomon Hill (10 points, six assists, two threes, 33 minutes) aren’t worth enough right now to survive Hill’s return.
Lavoy Allen (12 points, 14 boards, three blocks, 31 minutes) has had a few moments this year and perhaps he’s worth a look in 9-cat leagues where he currently holds 12-team value in 22 mpg, but he needs an injury in front of him to truly make it work.
BREAKING DOWN BLAKE
The Clippers have now won 11-of-13 games and stand as a reminder not to put too much weight on November basketball. Blake Griffin got dunked on in his own house by C.J. Miles, which is just funny, but he got the last laugh with 31 points on 11-of-27 shooting (9-of-13 FTs), 16 boards, five assists and one steal.
While it seems like he’s ripping the top off of fantasy leagues, he’s returning just top-40 value during the last two weeks primarily because his rebounding is down nearly two boards per game from last season and he’s averaging just 1.1 combined steals and blocks to 1.8 last season. He’s also averaging just 48.9 percent field goal shooting to 52.8 percent from last year, a reflection of the type and difficulty of the shots he’s taking now. A top 50-60 value on the season, I think the rebounding and defensive stats will slowly trend up and that’s the indicator owners should watch to gauge his progress.
Chris Paul was his normal productive self with 20 points, six boards, nine assists, five steals and a three, and DeAndre Jordan went off for 15 points, 23 boards and two blocks. The big warning here for Jordan owners is that he went 7-of-15 from the foul line. As discussed quite a bit here, the big fella has enjoyed top 15-30 value (9/8 cat) largely because he has only attempted 2.7 free throws per game this year, and perhaps last night’s big free throw rate will hit opposing teams’ scouting reports. He averaged 4.6 attempts per game last year and that could cause a sizable swing in value.
J.J. Redick scored 16 points with three treys and two assists to maintain his low-end value, and Jamal Crawford (10 points, zero assists, one three, 20 minutes) is an intriguing situation right now because he just fired his agent. In fact, Isaiah Thomas just fired the same agent (both are Seattle/Tacoma guys) and something seems amiss with that situation, but in Crawford’s case his name has been floated in the trade rumor mill. The Clips would need to get a wing back in any deal for any of this to make sense, and I’d sum the situation up by telling owners to simply keep their eyes open. Crawford has a pretty good thing going in L.A. and a move elsewhere could compromise his touches.
CRYSTALLIZE UNDER PRESSURE
The Rockets’ schedule has been about as kind as it gets and they’ve taken full advantage, cruising to a 19-5 start with an 8-0 record in games settled by five or less points. That seems like a good time to fade the Rockets if I’m in Vegas. Dwight Howard (knee) played and beat up on the Nuggets’ soft interior, scoring 24 points (10-of-15 FTs) with 16 rebounds and four blocks over 43 minutes in the Rockets’ overtime win, but it was James Harden that stole the show with 41 points on 11-of-21 shooting (1-of-7 3PTs, 18-of-21 FTs), four rebounds, 10 assists and two steals. Absurd.
Howard is a mess and he’s in the group of guys you just want to try and trade after big games. His knee may or may not be an issue, but the Rockets are going to play anything that comes along very safely and that’s on your dime. Make it be on someone else’s.
Patrick Beverley has been a top-40 play over the last two weeks and a top 45-60 play on the season, flashing a lot of the skills I thought he’d bring to the table last year. He had 12 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, three steals and a 6-of-6 mark from the foul line.
On one hand almost all of his numbers are up over last season and it would be tempting to fade that at least a little bit, but my sense watching the action is that he’s more confident this season than last and we’re seeing that bump. But even if we want to fade that, his current 63.3 percent foul shooting is almost guaranteed to jump 10 percent and if it goes up to career marks it will be a 15-point jump. And if it goes up to his lowest recorded average from his two seasons in the league (81.4), I think you get the point.
One might be tempted to say he doesn’t go to the line much, or if you’re ESPN all last night you might call him a bad foul shooter, but to the former issue he’s taking 2.5 freebies per game. That’s actually got a small amount of weight so A) the expected improvement will hold off a potential decline in other areas and B) that if he can hold on everywhere else he has a couple of extra rounds of value that he can reach by simply returning to normal efficiency at the line.
There’s that extremely high upside I was all hung up on last year, which illustrates one of the hazards of spotting these diamonds in the rough. They sometimes need more time than expected to crystallize under pressure. I’m willing to bet there are a lot of owners that think they have a cubic zirconia so be a good citizen and swap with them for your top-80 popcorn guy.
WE’RE (STILL) GOING STREAKING
The Nuggets are streaking like usual and now they’re pointing in the wrong direction again, as losers of seven of their last eight games despite being just 2.5 games out of the playoff hunt. And if you had Brian Shaw making it longer than Mike Malone folks would have had you checked into an institution, though anybody in the know in Sacto isn’t surprised, which is a story for another time and place.
Shaw met with both Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari about their roles and typical coach-speak was relayed after the game through the AP gamer. Both guys are frustrated and the Gallo angle here is just weird, as he has been sidelined (along with Faried) for a while and theoretically wouldn’t have any room to complain about playing time if his knee isn’t cooperating. So while I take my tin foil hat off about their injuries and stop wondering if they were given some time off to think, they both returned and had pretty good games in the grand scheme of things.
Faried went for 11 and 11 with two assists and no other stats in 32 minutes, matching up a huge fastbreak dunk late with a boneheaded turnover to throw shade on his night. Still, he played with good effort and Shaw kept him in the starting lineup for overtime, so I’d guess that the positives outweighed that one negative.
Faried is all over the rumor mill right now and I don’t think owners should concern themselves with that – his game is energy and rebounding. Owners don’t need to count on his offense to get back to mid-round upside, as he simply needs to get back to basics, which can be done anywhere he lands.
With fantasy deficiencies in a bunch of areas and deep-league pickup Darrell Arthur (12 points, nine rebounds, five assists, one steal, one three, 28 minutes) also playing versatile basketball – there are no shortage of reasons to bet against Faried. But all of us are looking at last year as the proof that he can, and hopefully his talk with Shaw and this game are the first step toward that.
I covered Gallo in today’s Dose so check it out if you’re into playing the lottery, and it’s worth dapping up Wilson Chandler for his 23 points, five treys, six boards, one steal and one block. He’s a solid top-65 value in fantasy leagues and I’d be targeting something in the top-80 range in a sell-high deal. Assuming no role change I’m also fading his current value by a round or two since he is playing a bit over his head in enough areas to expect some slippage.
Arron Afflalo hit a game-tying three at the buzzer in a 22-point, three-triple effort that was devoid of much beyond a 5-of-6 mark at the line. He’s a late-round value on the season and I think owners can count on that as long as he stays healthy. Timofey Mozgov got the Dwight Howard treatment and put up just one point and six boards in 19 foul-plagued minutes.
His numbers are so predictable it’s scary and he’s returning solid late-round value in 25.7 mpg on the season. I don’t know that he’ll step into the 30 mpg range with Jusuf Nurkic (17 minutes, six points, eight boards, two steals) seeming capable of rotational minutes and J.J. Hickson (21 minutes, eight points, five boards) around to muck things up. An 82-game player last year, three yards and a cloud of dust can easily reach a mid-round return at season’s end.
