Advanced Stats Breakdown

It’s not just about minutes. Yes, a player being on the court has a lot to do with production and minutes are probably the most important stat of all. In fact, minutes are more important than starting, but it’s not just that.

For instance, Jeff Green started in 82 games and was 16th in the NBA for total minutes, but he just 97th on the season in nine-category fantasy leagues.

On the other hand, Reggie Jackson, Jamal Crawford, Markieff Morris, Darren Collison, Patty Mills, Vince Carter, Marco Belinelli, Taj Gibson and Manu Ginobili all ranked ahead of Green, each started less than 37 games, and none of them were in the top 80 for total minutes.

Those guys were much more effective while they were on the court for a various number of reasons. You’ll notice there are three Spurs on that list, which is a big reason why coach Gregg Popovich is so great. His players are among the best in being efficient while out there, so not playing more than 30 minutes per night isn’t quite as important. So what makes a player efficient?

Obviously fantasy owners are highly concerned with their nine categories: Points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers. However, there are three stats that all fantasy owners should be aware of when it comes to projecting how a player may do on the season.

Effective field goal percentage, usage rate and pace will have a lot to do with how a player uses his minutes on offense. Yes, there are steals and blocks, so block and steal rates are important, but we’re just going to focus on the offensive side of the ball.

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You can also find all these stats on NBA.com/stats.

Effective field goal percentage

Chances are if you spot a blurb on our Player News Page describing a player’s effective field goal percentage or usage, it’s probably one of mine. Yes, there are no fantasy leagues with those two stats as categories, but they’re probably the two most important stats when it comes to scoring the ball.

Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) is a lot like field goal percentage except that 3-pointers are weighted, as they should be. Since three is 150 percent as great as two, a 3-pointer is basically worth 1.5 as much on the stat sheet for eFG%. In other words, a player who shoots 5-of-10 with two 3-pointers has an effective field goal percentage of 60.0. It’s basically just one concise way to add treys into a stat.

If you play in a category-based league, you obviously should be paying a lot of attention to 3-pointers. Ideally, you’d want someone who makes treys and shoots the ball well. That’s why Stephen Curry and his 56.6 effective field goal percentage are so highly coveted. Kawhi Leonard ranked seventh in effective field goal percentage, as well. That’s one reason why we like him so much. Guys like Chris Bosh, Kevin Durant, Kyle Korver and Jose Calderon fit in here with this elite group.

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Obviously the big men are going to have awesome effective field goal percentages just because they’re basically dunking it every time. In fact, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond ranked first and second in eFG% last season, respectively. They aren’t going to score any 3-pointers, but they are just so dominant in field goal percentage that it kind of overshadows that deficiency.

Then there’s the bad guys (preferable said in a Scarface voice). If you read five blurbs about the following guys, you’ll probably hear us mention how inefficient they are. Michael Carter-Williams was last in the NBA in effective field goal percentage because he shot just 40.5 percent from the field overall and added just 0.8 triples to give him an eFG% of 43.1. Brandon Jennings did shoot the ball worse overall at 37.3 percent, but his 1.9 treys boost him up to 44.1 in eFG%. Other guys with similar weaknesses are Kemba Walker, Trey Burke, Josh Smith, Rodney Stuckey and Tony Wroten. As a quick aside, Trey Burke looks awful.

Then there are also guys like DeMar DeRozan. He only shot 42.9 percent from the field and added just 0.3 triples. He’s basically hurting fantasy owners in two categories, which is why he’ll need a ridiculous output in other areas to become a top-25 guy. Ramon Sessions is a lot like that along with Gerald Henderson.

To take it one small step further, true shooting percentage is a lot like effective field goal percentage except for one small thing: Free throw shooting. Usually foul shooting won’t completely turn a guy’s true shooting upside-down unless it’s a high volume or that player is really good or bad at the charity stripe. For instance, DeAndre Jordan ranked first in eFG% at 67.6 percent, but his true shooting is just 63.0. Among qualifiers, Kyle Korver, LeBron James and Kevin Durant all leapfrog him there.

Usage rate

Usage rate is extremely important for obvious reasons. You want your guys taking shots. Among qualifiers, here are the top 15 guys for usage rate last season: Kevin Durant, DeMarcus Cousins, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Jefferson, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Stephen Curry, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, DeMar DeRozan, Dwyane Wade, James Harden and Tony Wroten. Excluding Wroten for his lack of minutes and efficiency, Wade for his injury risk, and DeRozan for low eFG%, those guys sound a lot like the first and second rounds of your fantasy drafts, right?

In essence, a usage rate is how often a player ends a possession. So basically, it’s how many field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers a player has over the same stats for his whole team while he’s on the court. Every team will have a possession end one way or another and with five players, that means the average usage rate is 20.0 percent (100 divided by five players).

This year, a good example is the Thunder. Before going down to a hand injury, Russell Westbrook had an unfathomable 42.9 usage rate because he had no help. With Westbrook out, Reggie Jackson stepped in for his debut and posted a 31.6 usage, which would have been good enough for fifth among qualifiers last year.

Usage rate is basically the opportunity a player has. For you DFS guys out there, usage rate is probably the best stat to look for besides minutes. If a player has a high usage in big minutes, a good matchup can help offset some efficiency concerns.

Pace

Pace is also a big one, but it’s not nearly as important. If a player gets more possessions, that leads to more stats overall. Still, the 76ers were first in pace at 101.6 possessions per game last year while the Grizzlies came on last at 92.3, so Philly had 10 percent more possessions than the Grizzlies. If you’re playing DFS, the difference between a 30-point fantasy day and a 33-point one can lead to a big difference in money. Heck, I lost a tournament by 0.2 points on Friday.

However, most teams won’t have a huge disparity and it doesn’t matter nearly as much. In fact, half of the teams in the middle of the pace rankings were separated by just 3.1 possessions per game, which is basically just a three percent increase.

Usually, you’ll see teams with a faster pace have a greater number of players become fantasy relevant. The Grizzlies were last in pace and basically just three guys were on the fantasy map.

If you combined these three stats, you’re looking at some elite fantasy value. We’ll want to track all this stuff throughout the year, but we can take a look at some small sample sizes. A great example is Stephen Curry, who seems to be bound to excel across the board. The Warriors currently lead the NBA in pace at 102.9 and Curry’s usage rate is up to 29.8 from 28.1 last season. It looks like coach Steve Kerr has realized Curry is basically a once-in-a-generation scorer and he’s also entering his prime. His effective field goal percentage is down, but that won’t last long.