Today’s column looks at fantasy strength-of-schedule for the remainder of the 2018-19 season. To do so, we’ll be using ‘value allowed to opponents’ to measure the ease or difficulty of matchups. For instance, the Pelicans have given up the third-most fantasy value to opponents over their past 10 games. That’s based on the NBA’s official fantasy scoring, used by FanDuel, Yahoo and other sites. You want your players up against New Orleans, generally, whereas you’d want to avoid the Pistons (fewest fantasy points allowed), Magic (second-fewest) and Blazers (third-fewest).
It’s helpful to know how easy or difficult each player’s remaining schedule appears to be, and it’s even more helpful to see that information on a granular level – position by position. That’s what we’re after today. For example, I mentioned the Pelicans above as a good team to target for fantasy value. They’ve been particularly vulnerable to centers in the past 10 games, though, giving up easily the most fantasy points of any team. They’re stingier vs. guards, however, and particularly SGs. Meanwhile, the Wolves are giving up the most value to SGs of any team in the past 10 games – I’d happily fire up Luke Kennard against them on Wednesday, and fully expect Bradley Beal to go off this weekend. More on this below.
If you missed last week’s column, be sure to also check that out. It focuses specifically on games-played, which can be the deciding factor for weekly lineups and head-to-head matchups. It won’t benefit the Grizzlies much to have favorable opponents in Week 22, since they’re playing just two games when most other teams have three or four games.
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Before proceeding, check out this link to Google Sheets that includes the charts below, plus game-by-game, position-by-position projections of fantasy matchups. The spreadsheet is too large to fit in this column, but interested readers and view and/or download it by following the link. If you’re debating between two comparable point guards on a busy night, or debating which stud to play in a DFS lineup, you could refer to the tab for ‘Point Guard matchups’ that looks like this:
You can see, for instance, that on Mar. 11 the Nets and D’Angelo Russell get a lousy matchup for PGs. The opponent that night is Detroit, whose defense has been great during their recent surge of nine wins in 11 games – they’re allowing only 41.06 fantasy points per game to point guards. If you’re trying to build a DFS lineup that day, therefore, you might want to avoid DAR in favor of De’Aaron Fox or someone else with a better matchup. And if you’re streaming value in a shallower league, it might be wise to skip Spencer Dinwiddie that night.
You can also use these charts to zoom in on weekly matchups. The Cavaliers play four times in Week 23, for instance, but you’ll notice that all their opponents have been tough for PGs -- the Pistons, Clippers and Bucks (twice). Collin Sexton has done little beyond score and hit some 3-pointers lately, so Week 22 could be a time to pivot toward a point guard with a more favorable slate.
Editor’s Note: Looking for an edge when it comes to fantasy hoops? Our new NBA DFS Toolkit has a Lineup Optimizer, Customizable Projections, Next Man Up tool and more for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo! And for season-long, the NBA Season Pass provides weekly projections, rankings, Pickups of the Day and more.
Some details about my methodology.
1) Gather past-10-game data for every team and convert it to fantasy points based on the NBA’s official system. This isn’t a perfect metric but it’s the backbone of DFS and many points leagues, and offers an approximation of ‘counting stats’ in all fantasy formats:
Points = 1.0
Rebounds = 1.2
Assists = 1.5
Steals = 3.0
Blocks = 3.0
Turnovers = -1.0
2) Assemble a spreadsheet with each team’s remaining opponents, and replace the opponent’s name with their corresponding ‘value allowed’
3) Tally up the numbers to determine strength-of-schedule. Share the link with rest-of-season matchup information for all 30 teams, both overall and broken down by position (PG, SG, SF, PF, C).
If you’re not ready to dive into the spreadsheet yet, here is a wide-angle look at strength-of-schedule findings. This table shows how many games each team has remaining, and how much value their remaining opponents have given up over the past 10 games (as a percentage of the league average):
If you see a team with few games and lousy ‘Overall’ matchups remaining, watch out. The Hawks get a brutal end-of-season fantasy schedule since they have only 14 games in Week 22-26 and also face the most imposing teams. If you own Pelicans players, you can at least take heart in the fact that their remaining opponents have been easy to rack up fantasy points against -- guys like Jrue Holiday, Cheick Diallo and Julius Randle don’t have many games left but should be productive when they’re on the court.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Jazz are set up with the best possible schedule. They are one of four teams with 17 games in Weeks 22-26, and have the best overall matchups of any team. It looks especially cushy for Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors. That’s another nuance to consider, and one reason why I’m looking at every position individually -- not all matchups are created equal. The Hawks’ remaining opponents have been stifling recently, as noted, but not against SFs -- that might be enough to hold onto a guy like Taurean Prince or Kent Bazemore if you’re on the fence.
There’s plenty more here to explore and how you use the data depends on your league formats and personal strategies. As usual, let me know if you have any insights or questions! You can always find me on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Keep an eye on the Rotoworld Season Pass for an updated ‘Team Matchups by Position’ column in the next few days, and good luck this week!
