The quality of an opponent can have a profound impact on fantasy values. I’ve explored this theme throughout the year in columns examining how lenient or stingy each team is vs. specific positions, how well teams defend specific play types (post-ups, isolations, etc.), and more. You can check out the full Numbers Game archive here.
In this week’s column, we’ll be looking at each team’s strength of schedule for the final weeks of the regular season. If you’re deciding between two comparable free agents, there’s more to consider than sheer volume of games played between now and the end of your fantasy league. The Nuggets have a terrible run to finish the year, for instance, with the worst strength-of-schedule on both a cumulative and per-game basis. The Knicks and Kings are also on the bottom rungs, whereas players from the Nets, Wolves, Bulls and Clippers are sitting pretty with copious advantageous matchups. If you’re torn between adding Robin Lopez or Juan Hernangomez, for instance, the vast disparity in strength-of-schedule could be a decisive factor.
Before looking at the strength-of-schedule chart, a word on my methodology. First, I’m looking at 9-cat roto values. Points leagues are simply too varied to provide an objective ranking, but the SoS numbers below are still a valid indicator of each team’s matchups going forward -- whether you’re in a points league, DFS, or roto, teams that give up tons of stats are uniformly beneficial.
I aggregated each team’s stats allowed to opponents over the past 10 games, and calculated 9-cat z-scores. I then transcribed each team’s schedule in terms of the matchup-based z-score of their opponent -- the higher the number, the better the matchup. Without further ado, here are the results:
(In the chart above, the teams are listed in descending order based on average SoS)
The charts above are self-explanatory and they are the culmination of today’s analysis, so there isn’t much more to say. You can view it in the cumulative sense, looking at each team’s rest-of-season SoS ratings, but you can also look at it on a day-by-day basis. The Nuggets have a poor schedule down the stretch, for instance, but they should fare well tonight against a Cavs team that’s yielding plenty of fantasy value to opponents.
I’m providing this chart on Google Sheets, as well, so that anyone interested can view or download it at their leisure. The formulas might not translate from Excel to Sheets, but if you want the original file just send me an email or a Direct Message on Twitter with your email address, and I’ll be happy to share the original spreadsheet. If you have any questions or insights, hit me up here…and good luck this week!
