The 2014 NBA draft will be held on June 26, and as usual it’s been preceded by a deluge of speculation about drafts orders, potential trades, team needs, and a prospect’s ability to contribute immediately and/or develop into a quality NBA player.
Here at Rotoworld, Aaron Bruski has already examined the fantasy potential for players drafted by the top-eight teams: the Cavaliers, Bucks, 76ers, Magic, Jazz, Celtics, Lakers and Kings.
Steve Alexander also offered a mock draft on June 15, before Joel Embiid‘s foot surgery shook up the top of the draft, and Ed Isaacson has ranked this summer’s available talent for PG, SG, SF, PF and C.
Today’s colum explores the recent fantasy-league success and failure of rookies since the 2005-06 season. This column is indebted to data drawn from BasketballMonster.com -- you’re doing yourself a disservice if you haven’t explored their site, which balances deep statistics with a simple user interface and incomparable functionality.
I came into this analysis with low expectations for rookies’ fantasy values, even lottery picks, and the numbers below justify my standard disclaimer that “most rookies are more trouble than they’re worth in fantasy leagues.” Keep in mind that the 2014-15 rookie class is unquestionably more talented than many (or most) of the years under discussion in this column. There is also the caveat that while a rookie may not provide season-long value, they often emerge with value as the season progresses -- Gorgui Dieng ranked No. 243 overall last season, but he surged to No. 34 with Nikola Pekovic injured in the final month of the season.
I’m assume a ‘standard’ fantasy format with 12 teams and 13 roster spots per game which places the cut-off for fantasy usefulness at 156, but I give it some leeway by using ‘top-170' as my default ‘line in the sand’. I am also looking at nine-cat values, and the statistics cited are per-game rather than cumulative. Nine-cat leagues are typically more forgiving for rookies, whose turnovers are typically limited due to low playing time, so in general these are somewhat generous rankings. I try to point out specific instances where a player’s value was much higher in eight-cat leagues, such as John Wall in 2010-11.
Before we whisk through nine draft classes, stopping to examine some highlights and lowlights, let’s take a look at the cumulative results:
I was somewhat surprised to find that power forwards were the most prevalent group among rookies who turned in top-170 fantasy value but failed to crack the top-100. Point guard was the second-easiest position to find, and both guard positions produced more top-100 rookies than the forward or center positions (granted, we’re dealing with a tiny sample size with high year-to-year variability).
A major takeaway is that only 62 rookies in the past nine seasons have produced top-170 fantasy value on a per-game basis, and only 15 of them cracked the top-100. That’s 6.9 viable fantasy options (and only 1.7 top-100 options) per rookie class. The biggest culprit is limited playing time -- again and again we see players like Serge Ibaka, David Lee and Paul Millsap marginalized during their rookie campaigns. Inefficiency is another bugaboo for first-year players, as even an elite talent like Kevin Durant, who averaged 35 minutes per game as a rookie, struggled to score with efficiency against NBA defenders. With these caveats in mind, let’s proceed on a year-by-year basis.
2005-06
No. 1 pick Andrew Bogut had a solid 82-game season as a rookie, averaging 13.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 0.8 blocks while shooting 53.0 percent from the field and a career-best 62.9 percent at the FT line (he was just 34.4 percent at the line last season).
No. 2 pick Marvin Williams immediately looked out of his depth, and didn’t crack the top-200 for fantasy value, while No. 3 pick Deron Williams eked out top-170 value in 29 minutes per game. Chris Paul, drafted No. 4 overall, was the only rookie in 2005 who averaged at least 30 minutes per game, and he was easily the most productive fantasy option at No. 17 overall.
Only five other rookies cracked the top-170 in fantasy leagues: Charlie Villanueva (83), Danny Granger (120), Channing Frye (126), Raymond Felton (127) and Luther Head (137).
In total, eight rookies made a sustained impact in 2005, and six of them were lottery picks.
No thanks: Marvin Williams was the biggest bust at No. 2 overall, but we shouldn’t overlook Ike Diogu (No. 9), Fran Vasquez (No. 11), Yaroslav Korolev (No. 12) or Sean May (No. 13).
Diamonds in the Rough: The Pacers found value with Danny Granger at No. 17 and Nate Robinson was a deal at No. 21, while David Lee (No. 30), Ersan Ilyasova (No. 35), Monta Ellis (No. 40), Amir Johnson (No. 56) and Marcin Gortat (No. 57) all turned out to be steals.
2006-07
Much like Chris Paul the year before him, Brandon Roy was easily the most productive rookie for fantasy owners in 2006-07. He averaged 35 minutes (the only rookie to top 30 per game) and piled up averages of 16.8 points, 1.0 threes, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He ranked No. 51 overall for nine-cat fantasy value, though his cumulative value was heavily damaged by 25 missed games.
The Blazers, who stole Roy by flipping the No. 7 pick (Randy Foye) to the Wolves in a draft-day trade, also landed LaMarcus Aldridge with the No. 2 pick in the draft. Despite his present-day fantasy dominance, LA was a marginal option as a rookie -- he played only 22 minutes per game, yielding 13th-round value.
Andrea Bargnani, the No. 1 overall pick, was also a 13th-round value in 25 minutes per game for the Raptors. No. 3 pick Adam Morrison received plenty of minutes but quickly proved to be a fantasy albatross, shooting 37.6 percent from the field with negligible supporting stats. Most 2006 lottery picks were no better than Morrison, who only appeared in three NBA seasons during his injury-shortened career.
Other rookies to crack the top-170 include Jorge Garbojosa (106), Kyle Lowry (119), Paul Millsap (161), Rudy Gay (164) and Rajon Rondo (170).
In total, eight rookies made a sustained impact in 2006, and four of them were lottery picks.
No thanks: Adam Morrison (No. 3), Tyrus Thomas (No. 4), Shelden Williams (No. 5), Patrick O’Bryant (No. 9) and Mouhamed Sene (No. 10).
Diamonds in the Rough: Rudy Gay (No. 8), Rajon Rondo (No. 21), Kyle Lowry (No. 24), Paul Millsap (No. 47)
2007-08
Greg Oden was taken No. 1 overall ahead of Kevin Durant and the rest is history. He missed the entire 2007-08 season following microfracture knee surgery, so he should technically surface again as a ‘rookie’ for 2008-09, but I’ll limit his mentions to this section. The oft-injured and much-maligned big man has appeared in 105 games since being drafted into the NBA, an average of 17.5 games per season, but he fully intends to play again in 2014-15.
Kevin Durant immediately assumed a major role for the rebuilding Supersonics in 2007, averaging 20.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks in nearly 35 minutes per game. He was plagued by low shooting percentages, however, and his 43.0 percent shooting on 17.1 attempts per game dragged him down to a 7th-round fantasy value.
That was still tops in his draft class, however, and only five other rookies cracked top-170 value: Al Horford (91), Ramon Sessions (133), Thaddeus Young (135), Joakim Noah (164) and Luis Scola (170). Other players would eventually emerge as fantasy forces to be reckoned with, such as Mike Conley Jr., Jeff Green, Spencer Hawes and Arron Afflalo, but none of them got the job done as first-year NBA players.
In total, six rookies made a sustained impact in 2007-08, and four of them were lottery picks.
No thanks: Greg Oden (No. 1), Yi Jianlian (No. 6), Acie Law (No. 11), Julian Wright (No. 13).
Diamonds in the Rough: Joakim Noah (No. 9), Thaddeus Young (No. 12), Wilson Chandler (No. 23), Tiago Splitter (No. 28), Marc Gasol (No. 48), Ramon Sessions (No. 56). Note: Marc Gasol didn’t play in the NBA until 2008-09.
2008-09
The 2008 draft included four elite talents in the top-10 picks: Derrick Rose (drafted No. 1 overall), Russell Westbrook (No. 4), Kevin Love (No. 5) and Brook Lopez (No. 10). All four of them appeared in at least 81 games as rookies. Lopez led his rookie cohort in nine-cat value, averaging 13.0 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks with excellent shooting percentages, and he didn’t miss a game all season. He was followed by No. 7 pick Eric Gordon and No. 34 pick Mario Chalmers, the latter of whom piled up enough assists (4.9) and steals (1.9) for 7th-round value.
There was a ton of under-the-radar talent drafted outside of the lottery in 2008, including Serge Ibaka and Nicolas Batum, but few of the ‘diamonds in the rough’ you’ll read below made a dent in fantasy leagues as rookies.
Michael Beasley was a prominent bust as the No. 2 selection for the Heat, and the Bucks didn’t fare any better with Joe Alexander at No. 8. Other lottery picks which elicit a shrug include D.J. Augustin (No. 9), Jerryd Bayless (No. 11), Jason Thompson (No. 12), Brandon Rush (No. 13) and everyone’s favorite fantasy tease: Anthony Randolph (No. 14). The Knicks made an understandable pick with Danilo Gallinari at No. 6, but he only appeared in 28 games as a rookie.
Seven other rookies scraped their way into top-170 value: O.J. Mayo (95), Rudy Fernandez (122), Marc Gasol (123), Anthony Morrow (145), D.J. White (149), D.J. Augustin (166) and Courtney Lee (170). NOTE: Fernandez and Gasol were both drafted in 2007, but spent a year overseas before coming to the NBA.
In total, 12 rookies made a sustained impact in 2008-09, and six of them were lottery picks.
No thanks: O.J. Mayo (No. 3), Joe Alexander (No. 8) and Brandon Rush (No. 13).
Diamonds in the Rough: Kevin Love (No. 5), Roy Hibbert (No. 17), JaVale McGee (No. 18), Ryan Anderson (No. 21), Serge Ibaka (No. 24), Nicolas Batum (No. 25), George Hill (No. 26), Nikola Pekovic (No. 31), DeAndre Jordan (No. 35), Omer Asik (No. 36) and Goran Dragic (No. 45). NOTE: Serge Ibaka didn’t play in the NBA until the 2009-10 season, and he averaged a mere 6.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 18 minutes per game as a rookie.
2009-10
Blake Griffin was the No. 1 pick in 2009 but he missed the entire season after breaking his kneecap, so I’ll include him in the 2010-11 rookie class. The next six picks include four elite-talent guards and a pair of complete busts:
No. 2: Hasheem Thabeet
No. 3: James Harden
No. 4: Tyreke Evans
No. 5: Ricky Rubio
No. 6: Jonny Flynn
No. 7: Stephen Curry
Curry was phenomenal out of the gates, racking up per-game averages of 17.5 points, 2.1 threes, 4.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.9 steals with excellent percentages. It added up to first-round value in nine-cat leagues, despite his 3.1 turnovers per game, and he was the best rookie to own in fantasy leagues by a wide margin.
Only seven other rookies made the top-170 list in 2009: Tyreke Evans (71), Marcus Thornton (105), Brandon Jennings (117), Darren Collison (143), Jonas Jerebko (146), Taj Gibson (150) and James Harden (156). A few more future fantasy studs were lurking in the background, such as Jrue Holiday, DeMar DeRozan, Jeff Teague and Ty Lawson, but they were all hampered by limited playing time as rookies. (Note: Ricky Rubio didn’t play until the 2011-12 season.)
In total, eight rookies made a sustained impact in 2009-10, and four of them were lottery picks.
No thanks: Hasheem Thabeet (No. 2), Jonny Flynn (No. 6), Jordan Hill (No. 8), Terrence Williams (No. 11), Austin Daye (No. 15).
Diamonds in the Rough: Stephen Curry (No. 7), Jrue Holiday (No. 17), Ty Lawson (No. 18), Jeff Teague (No. 19), Taj Gibson (No. 26), Patrick Beverley (No. 42), Marcus Thornton (No. 43), Danny Green (No. 46), Patty Mills (No. 55).
2010-11
John Wall, the No. 1 pick, is joined by Paul George (No. 10) as the only All-Stars to have emerged thus far from the 2010 draft class. Both players finished with top-170 value but neither cracked the top-100 in nine-cat leagues -- that honor was reserved for only one rookie, Landry Fields, who achieved the feat thanks to stealthy efficiency and averages of 6.3 rebounds and 1.0 triples per game.
Wall fared much better in eight-cat leagues, returning top-40 value with his 3.8 turnovers per game no longer dragging down his value. No. 5 draft pick DeMarcus Cousins also jumped from a negligible fantasy option to a 10th-round value when turnovers were ignored -- he averaged a sloppy 3.3 turnovers in under 29 minutes per game, and shot only 43.0 percent from the field and 68.7 percent from the FT line.
Of the drafts thus far examined, the 2010 class was the least productive for per-game fantasy value. In addition to Wall, Fields and Cousins (whom I’ll include for argument’s sake based on eight-cat value) only three more guys cracked the top-170: Greg Monroe (103), Ed Davis (134) and Paul George (167). A few more notable players were drafted in the lottery, including Derrick Favors (No. 3) and Gordon Hayward (No. 9), but they failed to make a dent in fantasy leagues.
An asterisk is necessary, since Blake Griffin was named the 2010-11 Rookie of the Year after missing the 2009-10 season due to knee surgery. He averaged 22.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 0.8 steals in a whopping 37.9 minutes per game as a rookie, without missing a single game. Those numbers were good enough for 7th-round fantasy value, but as usual he leapt up to 2nd-round value if you were willing to punt FT percentage (64.2 percent).
Including Griffin, seven rookies made a sustained impact in 2010-11, and six of them were lottery picks (only Fields was not).
No thanks: Evan Turner (No. 2), Wesley Johnson (No. 4), Ekpe Udoh (No. 6), Al-Farouq Aminu (No. 8), Cole Aldrich (No. 11) and Xavier Henry (No. 12).
Diamonds in the Rough: DeMarcus Cousins (No. 5), Paul George (No. 10), Larry Sanders (No. 15), Eric Bledsoe (No. 18), Greivis Vasquez (No. 28) and Lance Stephenson (No. 40),
2011-12
Kyrie Irving justified the Cavs’ decision to select him No. 1 overall, averaging 18.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.1 steals with solid percentages on his way to Rookie of the Year honors. Even his 3.1 turnovers per game didn’t prevent him from securing early 4th-round fantasy value in nine-cat leagues. The second most valuable rookie, for fantasy purposes, was Ricky Rubio. Originally drafted in 2009, he made his NBA debut in 2011 and locked up 6th-round value by averaging 10.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 8.2 assists and 2.2 steals per game -- enough to overcome his lousy 35.7 percent shooting and 3.2 turnovers.
Picks 2-7 were a sequence of big men, all of whom were useless for fantasy owners:
No. 2: Derrick Williams
No. 3: Enes Kanter
No. 4: Tristan Thompson
No. 5: Jonas Valanciunas (*overseas)
No. 6: Jan Vesely
No. 7: Bismack Biyombo
Yikes. They were followed by a sequence of more guards: Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette, Klay Thompson and Alec Burks, of whom only Thompson and Walker returned lasting fantasy value.
The only lottery picks to succeed have already been mentioned: Irving (38), Rubio (72), Klay Thompson (124) and Kemba Walker (173). They were joined by Kawhi Leonard (78), Kenneth Faried (88), Isaiah Thomas (116), Chandler Parsons (121) and Iman Shumpert (141).
In total, nine rookies made a sustained impact in 2011-12, and four of them were lottery picks.
No thanks: Derrick Williams (No. 2), Jan Vesely (No. 6), Bismack Biyombo (No. 7), Jimmer Fredette (No. 10).
Diamonds in the Rough: Kemba Walker (No. 9), Klay Thompson (No. 11), Kawhi Leonard (No. 15), Nikola Vucevic (No. 16), Kenneth Faried (No. 22), Reggie Jackson (No. 24), Jimmy Butler (No. 30), Chandler Parsons (No. 38), and Isaiah Thomas (No. 60).
2012-13
Kentucky was well-represented in the 2012 draft, as Anthony Davis (No. 1) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (No. 2) became the first teammates ever to be drafted with the top two picks. Their paths quickly diverged in the NBA, however, as Davis racked up elite value with averages of 13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.8 blocks in only 28 minutes per game, whereas MKG struggled his way to 9.0 points per game with the Bobcats.
Davis missed 18 games as a rookie, severely denting his value, but on a per-game basis he returned 2nd-round value. Damian Lillard, who was named Rookie of the Year, was an early 5th-round value (3rd-round in eight-cat leagues), but few other rookies got the job done for fantasy owners.
In fact, only four other players cracked top-170 value: Bradley Beal (121), Andre Drummond (149), Michael Kidd Gilchrist (159) and Moe Harkless (164). Prominent selections who missed the cut include Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes, Terrence Ross and Austin Rivers.
In total, six rookies made a sustained impact in 2012-13, and five of them were lottery picks (Harkless was the No. 15 pick).
No thanks: MKG (No. 2), Thomas Robinson (No. 5), Austin Rivers (No. 10), Royce White (No. 16),
Diamonds in the Rough: Damian Lillard (No. 6), John Henson (No. 14), Terrence Jones (No. 18), Miles Plumlee (No. 26) and Draymond Green (No. 35).
2013-14
Anthony Bennett needs no introduction. The Cavaliers’ overall No. 1 selection was a disaster during his rookie season, averaging 4.2 points on 35.6 percent shooting in a mere 52 appearances. He looked like a guy who would be struggling to stay afloat in the D-League, and will need to make major strides this summer to be a remote consideration for fantasy owners in 2014-15.
By the numbers the 2013 draft class was the poorest, for fantasy purposes, of any considered in this column. No. 11 pick Michael Carter-Williams and No. 2 pick Victor Oladipo both provided solid value, leaping from late-round picks to mid-round picks if you ignore their copious turnovers. Of the 11 lottery picks not yet mentioned, only Trey Burke managed to creep into top-170 value -- fantasy owners were better off ignoring Otto Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel*, Ben McLemore, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, C.J. McCollum, Steven Adams, Kelly Olynyk and Shabazz Muhammad.
The only other players with top-170 value on a per-game basis was No. 48 pick Ryan Kelly, and he was the beneficiary of solid playing time and Mike D’Antoni‘s 3-point-heavy offense. Giannis Antetokounmpo had his moments before the All-Star break, Nate Wolters chipped in some value once he was gifted a starting job, Gorgui Dieng (as mentioned above) erupted in a starting role late in the season, and a few other guys provided sporadic bursts of fantasy value. On a season-long basis, though, there was precious little fantasy value to be found in the 2013 draft.
In total, four rookies made a sustained impact in 2013-14, and three of them were lottery picks.
No thanks: The jury is still out on most of these players but I have no compunction about once again indicting Anthony Bennett (No. 1).
Diamonds in the Rough: Again, it’s too early to say for sure who will thrive in the NBA, but a few guys are worth highlighting: Michael Carter-Williams (No. 11), Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15), Gorgui Dieng (No. 21), Mason Plumlee (No. 22), Ryan Kelly (No. 48).
