The second-round series between the Cavaliers (2) and Raptors (3) offers plenty of fun matchups and strategic wrinkles. Will Kyle Lowry‘s recent back issues limit him in a crucial matchup vs. Kyrie Irving? Will Cleveland defend DeMar DeRozan with single coverage, or throw waves of defenders at him and dare someone else to beat them? Can DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker, Serge Ibaka and others keep LeBron James in check? How will Ibaka’s shooting range and rim protection impact the series? Among the many questions, one of the most interesting involves Toronto’s rotations.
The Raptors struggled initially against Milwaukee’s smaller, more athletic lineups in the first round, but the tide changed when coach Dwane Casey started Norman Powell in place of Jonas Valanciunas. That doesn’t seem like a tenable approach against Cleveland. Toronto will need DeMarre Carroll on LeBron, so it’s probable that they’ll revert to the usual JV/Serge Ibaka frontcourt. The Raptors ranked 8th in total rebound rate this season, whereas the Cavs ranked 19th, and they’ll likely try to create an advantage with their size in the paint.
Another reason for Valanciunas to start is that the Cavs’ backup center, Channing Frye, lives beyond the arc. That’s a terrible matchup for JV, who would prefer to bang in the paint with Tristan Thompson. Starting JV is the easiest way to ensure that he’s not caught in a mismatch – he’d have the edge offensively as a post-up threat against Frye, but the Raptors have struggled to consistently exploit such advantages this season. Meanwhile, guys like Ibaka and Patrick Patterson are versatile enough to defend Frye outside while also abusing the matchup offensively.
Production from Toronto’s big men and role players will be critical, especially if Norman Powell can stay hot after torching the Bucks. Assuming he’s a featured part of the second unit, Powell’s two-way play could be crucial against the Cavs’ bench. He’s capable of chasing Kyle Korver around the court and/or bodying up Deron Williams defensively, while taking advantage of the Cavs’ porous second-unit defense. Powell isn’t likely to shoot 55.6% from the field, as he did in the first round (including an implausible 10-of-11 from deep), but he’s still facing a very favorable matchup.
In the end, of course, it all comes down to Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan – Cavs coach Tyronn Lue referred to them as a “two-headed monster.” Here are their splits in four games vs. Cleveland this season:
Lowry: 20.5 points on 44.3% FGs, 2.5 threes, 3.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 3.3 turnovers
DeRozan: 29.7 points on 43.6% shooting, 0.7 threes, 5.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.7 steals, 2.3 turnovers
Both of Toronto’s All-Stars were successful, in other words, and it’s not as though Cleveland’s defense has been air-tight. They had an atrocious defensive rating of 111.1 after the All-Star break this season, which was second-worst in the league. What’s more, they were a mere +16 during four games vs. the Pacers in the first round, which ties the lowest margin of victory in a four-game sweep in NBA history. We typically think of playoff series as slowed-down, grind-it-out affairs, but the Cavs and Raptors should have more than a few high-scoring shootouts.
Keep an eye on DeRozan’s free throw attempts in this series. He went to the line 8.7 times per game this season, fifth-most in the league, but the Cavs are determined not to give him easy points. “He’s one of the best one-on-one players in our league right now, and he does a good job of getting to the free-throw line,” said Cavs coach Tyronn Lue. “He’s a tough cover and we just want to make him make field goals and not free throws and make it hard on him.” DeRozan averaged a relatively meager 5.5 free throws in last year’s playoff clash vs. the Cavs, so he’ll need to work extra hard to reach his season average in this series.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, begin the second round favored to win Game 1, with a 6.5-point spread in most Vegas sportsbooks. They will be well rested, if nothing else, having sat out for a full week after finishing their sweep of the Pacers on Apr. 23. Such a long layoff could result in some initial rust, but that hasn’t been an issue for LeBron James this season. In six games with 3+ days rest, LeBron averaged 23.5 points on 56.4% shooting, 9.8 rebounds, 11.3 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 steals.
As I noted in a column last week, LeBron’s struggles at the free throw line are an interesting sub-plot. He shot a career-low 67.4% on 7.2 attempts per game this season, and finished the first round just 22-of-38 from the stripe (57.9%). Toronto is going to play him physically regardless, and they’ll be incentivized to do so if he’s missing free throws.
LBJ wasn’t bothered by DeMarre Carroll‘s defense in their meetings this year, but the arrival of P.J. Tucker gives Toronto another capable defender with the size to challenge James. The Raptors’ acquisition of both players was viewed in the context of another playoff battle vs. LeBron and company, which heightens the intrigue. It’s never wise to bet against Playoff LeBron, however, especially since he has the fifth-highest usage of anyone in the postseason.
The player with the third-highest usage? That would be Kyrie Irving, at a hefty 35.3%. He and LeBron combined for a ridiculous 67.9% usage in the first round, which makes them hard to fade for DFS purposes. Even Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, for instance, have a relatively modest 60.9% combined usage.
Kyrie helped the Cavs average a whopping 13.5 threes per game vs. the Pacers, and Toronto was middle-of-the-pack defending the perimeter this season -- the 3-point line could be a deciding factor in this series. Toronto’s perimeter defense regressed vs. Milwaukee, as they gave up 38.0% shooting from 20-24 feet (4.5 makes per game), and an astounding 45.1% shooting from 25-29 feet (5.3 makes per game).
That reflects the Bucks’ hot shooting from downtown, but the Cavs have assuredly taken note. One point of emphasis for the Raptors’ defense should be defending corner 3-pointers -- Cleveland was a combined 147-of-352 (41.8% from the right corner this season, and a devastating 174-of-382 (45.5%) from the left corner. Here’s a look at both teams’ shot charts during the 2016-17 regular season, via NBAsavant.com:
It’s all about the Cavs’ Big 3 for DFS purposes. In addition to the top-heavy usage rates mentioned above, nobody on the roster averaged more than Channing Frye’s 8.5 points per game in the first round. Tristan Thompson was the only supporting cast member to play 30+ minutes, but even he averaged a quiet 22.7 FanDuel points per game (6.8 points, 11.0 boards, 0.8 assists, 1.25 blocks, 0.25 steals, 1.5 turnovers). J.R. Smith scored double-digit points once all series while averaging 5.0 shots per game with 1.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.5 steals and 0.3 blocks.
The Cavs’ high-usage stars are the obvious DFS targets in this series, while the Raptors offer more risk-vs.-reward plays in guys like Valanciunas ($4,900), Ibaka ($6,300), Powell ($4,300) and even Tucker ($3,100). The Cavs may be the odds-on favorites to march past the Raptors and into the Eastern Conference Finals, but I’d be surprised if they’re not pushed to at least six games. Here’s hoping for a drawn-out dogfight between these familiar foes.
