One of my favorite things about fantasy basketball is that while there certainly is a wrong way to build a roster, there’s not necessarily a right way. Your team will be dictated by the selections you make within the first six rounds, but what brings home the gold is how you fare at the back end of your draft. The first four rounds you will add guys that should perform at an elite level, but the true skill comes in how you gamble later on.
First, I would like to address some general guidelines. I can’t stand when people complain about how their season was derailed by injuries. Sure, this is a valid excuse on occasion, but if year after year you’re drafting injury prone players and then being shocked when they get injured, that is your own fault. Solid draft strategy will propel you to that championship round, and while your top-tier guys will lead the way, championships are won by the steals you get at the end of the draft. Each and every year there are players that are drafted at the top and underperform (busts) and players that come in the 10th round and later that put up early round value (sleepers). It is your job to maximize the potential of your returns while minimizing risk.
The 9-cat format
In a standard 9-cat league you are competing for: FG%, FT%, 3PM, Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, and Turnovers.
While some of my colleagues here at Rotoworld lament the 9-cat format, citing that it penalizes top-tier players for simply handling the ball a lot (which results in turnovers) I always cite Chris Paul. Paul is a guy who year-after-year leads the league in assist-to-turnover ratio, and that efficiency is fantasy gold. That is why I love the 9-cat format; it rewards efficiency.
A quick point to make is that certain categories generally lead to negative statistics in another category.
For example:
Assists = Turnovers
3-pointers = lower FG%
Blocks = Poor FT
There are exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking this is the case.
Injury Prone = No Thanks
Every year I play I make it a goal to avoid injury prone players. I don’t care if a guy is a top-10 player for 23 games out of the year, an injured player equals dead roster space and zero statistics; and that my friends is fantasy desolation. I don’t care how many positive reports I hear about: Eric Gordon, Anderson Varejao, Brook Lopez, Nikola Pekovic, Ersan Ilyasova, etc. I’m not drafting them. In my opinion the potential rewards gained from injury prone players never outweighs the inherent risk, dead roster space and zero statistics.
Where do you take your guys?
Something I constantly ask myself when preparing for a draft is what players am I okay with being wrong on, and I’m always okay with being wrong on injury prone guys. Sure there’s a chance they finally make it through a full NBA season, but if there’s a guy I feel might not have quite as high of a ceiling, but he’s young and unlikely to get injured, I’m taking him.
The next question I ask myself is at what point am I not okay with losing a guy? At what round do I absolutely need to snipe this player? This is how you can evaluate where you’re going to take your guys, and the best way to prepare is mock draft after mock draft.
Take on the Forgotten
One last point I’d like to make before delving into the various strategies of the 9-cat format is to take on the forgotten assets. By this I mean, really analyze the busts from last year. Were they busts because they sustained a freak, season-ending injury? Were they busts because of their situation? Has that situation changed? Do you believe they can turn things around?
Too often players are viewed as static objects, expected to continue to put up the same stats regardless of their situation, but that is simply not the case (as we saw with O.J. Mayo last season). Situations change, roles are expanded, contracts are signed, and this all figures into a players performance.
For example, DeMarcus Cousins was viewed as a bust for the 2012-13 season based on his draft position, but then came back and put up first round value the following year. Why? Well for starters, the talent was always there. Secondly, and more importantly, his situation changed. The Kings organization shipped out players that took opportunities away from DeMarcus (Tyreke Evans), and they hired a coach that was determined to pound the paint. DeMarcus went from head-case to stat stuffer, and he really seems to be making a commitment towards making headlines for the right reasons.
Another name that comes to mind is Larry “The Show” Sanders. Sanders had a horrible year last season, starting with a bar fight, and ending with an orbital fracture. Sanders was taken no later than the third round in standard leagues last season, but only suited up for 23 games. However, like DeMarcus, the talent is still there for Larry. That’s not to say I’m going to take him in the third round this year, but I may be intrigued in the sixth round and later.
When evaluating the bust from last year, try and see if you can spot a downward trend. Is the player an aging veteran, or did he simply have an off year?
Guys like: Deron Williams, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen could be categorized as “aging veterans,” you can see a downward trend in their stats, and one shouldn’t expect a sudden turnaround simply because of the name on their jersey.
General Strategies
Draft multi-category producers. The guys that come off the board in the early stages do so because, one, they produce in a statistically rare category, and two, because they produce in categories across the board. Multi-cat producers are fantasy gold.
Don’t try to just be good in a category, try to dominate. Don’t simply draft a high assist guy and think you’re set. When I go after assists, I try to get at least two guys on my team that average at least 7+ assists a game, and I continue to target guys who assist throughout the draft. When going after a statistically rare category (more on this later) try to get two elite level performs to corner the market in what you’re going for.
Power Forwards, Centers, and Point Guards go quick
A point I’d like to make about top picks is that if you’re in a league that puts a premium on big men, take ‘em and take ‘em early. When you look at the top-30 players from last year 14 are big men (power forwards/centers). However, among the top-50 just 19 are big men, and of the top-100 only 35 are bigs. As you can see, the drop off is substantial.
The same goes for high-assist guys. If you look at the assist leaders from last year (Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Kendall Marshall, John Wall, Ty Lawson, Ricky Rubio, Stephen Curry) only seven guys averaged 8+ a game. And all of those guys, excluding Kendall, are guys that will go within the first three rounds of your draft this year. So if you’re going to try and win in assists, you need to take an assist man early.
The Golden Categories – Statistical Rarity
Blocks, assists, steals, and points are the four hardest categories to be dominant in, so you should load up on guys that bring you those stats early.
For a more in-depth look at statistical scarcity see Ryan Knaus’s column here: http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/articles/nba/44741/196/the-numbers-game.
Just keep in mind, that while blocks are a statistically the rarest category, it is only one category, and you need at least five for a win. What I’m getting at is once you’ve gathered at least two big-time shot blockers, start shooting for other categories to balance your roster.
Categories that you can bolster later in the draft: 3-pointers and rebounds.
All-Around Strategy
Unless you know you’re going to take a guy who is truly horrible in a certain category, you shouldn’t go into the draft looking to punt. One of the most successful strategies in fantasy basketball is to go for a well-rounded effort. Target guys that produce across-the-board statistics, and more importantly, guys who don’t significantly hurt you in any categories. Guys like: LaMarcus Aldridge, Mike Conley and Serge Ibaka are fantasy gold because they don’t struggle significantly in any one area of the game.
Even if you draft a guy like Kevin Durant/LeBron James, guys that turnover the ball a lot, you can offset their turnovers by being mindful of the category the rest of the way through your draft. You won’t be the best team in turnovers, but you certainly don’t have to be the worst.
Punting intro
If you’ve made it to the halfway point in your draft, and you’ve missed out on a category like assists, or blocks; or you picked up someone that is going to lose you a category each week (Dwight Howard), the best thing to do would be to punt. And if you’re going to punt, you should aim for being dominant in five categories, be decent at another three, and punt one. Punting means you pay no mind to the category, and bump up players accordingly to fit your roster.
When you’re building your team, you want to minimize the weakness of your best player, and accentuate his strengths. For example, if you draft a high-turnover guy like Russell Westbrook you’re not going to be very great in turnovers from week-to-week. However, you can make this negative statistic negligible by drafting guys from top-to-bottom that also turn the ball over a lot, think: Monta Ellis, Eric Bledsoe, Victor Oladipo, etc. This “punting” of the turnover category makes the negative impact of Russell relatively minor.
It’s also important to draft guys that fit your team, and not just the highest-ranking guy on the board. For example, it wouldn’t make much sense to pair Kevin Durant with Dwight Howard, because Howard negates the spectacular free throw shooting that Durant gives you. So the strengths and weaknesses of your best players will dictate how you should draft, and what categories you should ignore (punt).
Examples of Punting
Punting Strategy: FT
Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, Josh Smith, Blake Griffin, Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Dwyane Wade, Andre Iguodala
With the current talent we have in the NBA, now is probably the best time to implore a FT punting strategy. If you can assemble a team with some combination of guys like Dwight Howard, Rajon Rondo, DeAndre Jordan, Lance Stephenson, and Andre Drummond, you’re going to lose FT% every single week, but that’s just one category. Meanwhile, the aforementioned players will make you nearly unbeatable in blocks, rebounds, field goal percentages, and if built correctly, assists. If you’re going to punt, go all out. What I mean by this is don’t even bother drafting high FT% guys, because their contributions will be lost on your team.
Punting Strategy: Assists
Go after scoring point guards like Jeff Teague, Isaiah Thomas, Damian Lillard, Tony Parker
Go after bigs like Serge Ibaka, Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez, Andre Drummond, etc.
If you find that you’ve made it to the fourth round and you still don’t have an elite assist guy, it might be best to simply punt the category. There is an advantage to the strategy of punting assists; it gives you the unique angle of targeting a win in turnovers (a category many owners ignore).
This is a category that favors big-men, as there aren’t too many bigs in the league that rack up the assists.
With this strategy you should try to go after unorthodox categories like FG% and TOs.
Punting Strategy: Turnovers
If you draft Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, James Harden, John Wall and Monta Ellis you can pretty much kiss the turnover category goodbye.
I try to be mindful of the turnover category, but if I have the opportunity to put Monta Ellis and Russell Westbrook on the same team, I’m doing it because of the elite statistics they give you in the other categories (specifically steals).
Punting Strategy: Treys
Punting 3-pointers is another strategy that mostly benefits big-men, as they generally do not shoot 3s. It’s also a strategy that will help bolster your FG% as players that don’t shoot threes take their shots closer to the basket, and because of that, hit their shots at a more efficient rate. If you choose to ignore the 3-point category, make sure you go after guards that don’t shoot threes. Think: Tony Parker, Tyreke Evans, Rajon Rondo, Monta Ellis.
Punting Strategy: Blocks
Bigs: Kevin Love, David Lee, Chris Bosh, David West
If you don’t pounce early, this is a category you’re going to have to punt. You can still be an elite team without winning blocks by drafting highly efficient big men like the ones listed above. Remember, blocks are just one category, so it’s okay if you miss out on it. Just make sure your team is well rounded in the other categories.
Categories you shouldn’t punt: FG%, Rebounds, Points
These are the categories that if you’re not trying to dominate, you should at least try to be decent in as you can get specialists to bolster these categories later on in the draft.
FG%
There are certain guys around the league that destroy your FG%, and while it may be logical to punt the category to boost the value of your players, I wouldn’t suggest going this route. While some teams can be very good at FG%, generally it’s a 50-50 category each week. To ignore a chance at a 50-50 win is not an advisable fantasy strategy.
Points/Rebounds
Everyone in the league scores points. Now, if you miss out on a 24+ point scorer early, you probably won’t dominate the points category, but you can still compete. If you can draft around five guys who average around 20 points per game, you’ll be able to compete, and there are guys in the middle rounds that can get you points.
The same could be said about rebounds; you can actually find rebounding specialists later in the draft (Zach Randolph, Omer Asik, Kenneth Faried) so punting of this category isn’t advisable.
Ranks vs. Fit
One last thing I want to cover is that rankings aren’t everything. If you blindly select your players based upon who has the highest ranking, you will not have a successful fantasy season. When you get deeper and deeper into your draft the rankings become more and more meaningless. Bump guys up on your board according to fit. Are you already dominant in blocks? Start shooting for other categories.
Build a well-rounded team, and you will have success. Good luck.
