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I enter another week of writing this article with mild trepidation, after each of my last two wide receiver picks have gone down to injury following its publishing. We lost Jonathan Mingo (broken foot) of Ole Miss in Week 5 against Alabama in a practice just days before the game. And Virginia wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks exited after his first target in Week 6 following a hit that should have been flagged for targeting. [[ad:athena]]
If you’re one to embrace superstitions, especially in October, I understand if you feel like now is a good time to end your reading of this article.
However, I should also let you know that my call on Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker ($7,900) nearly looked like the DFS play of the year after he posted 26.86 DraftKings points in the first quarter against South Carolina. He fizzled out a bit from there, but still finished with 33.6 points on the day, good for the QB8 overall.
Operating under the assumption that you’re ready to ride this out with me for one more week, here are some Week 7 value plays I like on this week’s DraftKings main slate.
Zach Calzada, Texas A&M QB
Game: Missouri (+9.5) vs. Texas A&M - O/U 59.5
DraftKings Price: $6,300
Missouri’s defense is so awful that it fired defensive line coach Jethro Franklin just nine months after he was hired.
The Tigers are allowing the second-most yards per game in the nation (498.8), and are coming fresh off a game in which they allowed North Texas quarterback Austin Aune to throw for 305 yards and four touchdowns while completing 16-of-26 passes. While most of those yards came in garbage time for North Texas, Aune had a fourth quarter to remember, especially for a guy who had yet to even throw for over 100 yards in the previous four games.
Now, Missouri gets Texas A&M and quarterback Zach Calzada, who is fresh off an upset win over Alabama.
In that game, Calzada completed 21-of-31 passes for 285 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He finished with 23.6 DraftKings points, which is a season-high for him. Calzada in most weeks has not looked like a fantasy quarterback you’d want to roster, but he has faced difficult conference opponents in Mississippi State and Arkansas.
Calzada’s schedule gets decidedly easier in Week 7 when he and the Aggies travel to Missouri, and at his $6,300 price point against one of the worst teams in the nation, he looks like a solid value.
On the season, Calzada has averaged only 0.8 fantasy points per completion. However, in his last two games against Mississippi State and Alabama, his points per completion have jumped to 1.2. His overall efficiency took a massive hit thanks to a 5.24 point performance against Arkansas where he completed 20 passes but failed to connect on any touchdowns through the air or on the ground.
The Aggies are 9.5-point favorites in this game, but Missouri’s offense could keep this one close. The Tigers are averaging 37.8 points per game on the season, having scored 30 or more points in all but two of their contests. Running back Tyler Badie‘s ($8,000) usage in both the running and the passing game could be problematic for Texas A&M. He has rushed for 675 yards and eight touchdowns on the year, while adding another 25 receptions for 212 yards and four scores.
Thus far, the over is 5-1 in games Missouri has played in this season, with this week’s 59.5 being the lowest projected total since Week 4 against Tennessee (which also went over).
If Missouri can keep things close, it’s easy to envision a shootout where Calzada 3x’s his value and turns in a solid fantasy day.
Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M RB
Game: Missouri (+9.5) vs. Texas A&M - O/U 59.5
DraftKings Price: $6,600
In a move that’s perhaps not the most exciting one, we are going to go back to the well that is Missouri vs. Texas A&M.
Aggies’ running back Isaiah Spiller is the eighth most expensive running back on the slate this week, but again, gets a matchup with arguably the worst defense in the nation.
In addition to the 498.8 yards per game Missouri is allowing, they are also allowing 288.2 rushing yards per game, the most of any team in the country.
Spiller, arguably one of the best running backs in the FBS, boasts a Pro Football Focus grade of 78.3, but has been exceptional as a pass catcher with a receiving grade of 85.2. On the year, Spiller has caught 17-of-20 targets for 149 yards and one touchdown while forcing nine missed tackles.
As a rusher, he has 84 carries for 496 yards and three scores, with 29 missed tackles forced on rushing attempts.
He is averaging 1.0 fantasy points per touch, which is good, but not great. However, of the running backs on this weekend’s slate with 100 or more touches, Spiller is tied for last with only four touchdowns, Some positive touchdown regression against Missouri could easily spin his fantasy efficiency in a more positive direction.
Despite the difficult time Spiller has had with finding the end zone, he is still averaging 19.0 DraftKings points per game. His best game of the season came against a stour Arkansas defense, where he scored 23.1 fantasy points while totaling 114 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown while hauling in five receptions.
If you’re looking to get a piece of this Texas A&M backfield, but don’t want to pay up for Spiller, a pivot to Spiller’s battery mate Devon Achane is a more than viable play.
Achane actually pops up as the third-most efficient back on this weekend’s slate in fantasy points per rush attempt (1.7) and is the also tied for third in points per touch at 1.3.
Despite his “backup” title to Spiller, Achane is averaging 11.2 touches per game and 82.2 yards from scrimmage per game. He has three touchdowns on the year and is averaging 15.6 DraftKings points per game but comes in at a nice $5,100 price point.
Mar’Keise Irving, Minnesota RB
Game: Minnesota (+4) vs. Nebraska - O/U 48
DraftKings Price: $3,100
Normally we’d only feature one player at each position, but Minnesota running back Mar’Keise Irving could make for an interesting leverage play off one of several high-priced backs.
The Gophers recently lost running back Trey Potts for the season, after losing starter Mohamed Ibrahim against Ohio State in Week 1.
Potts’ season ends with 113 carries for 558 yards and six touchdowns. If he were actually playing DraftKings already had Potts priced at $6,500 for this week, tying him with Iowa’s Tyler Goodson as the ninth most expensive back on the slate.
Now down its top two backs, Minnesota will likely lean on Irving, a freshman, as its primary ball carrier going forward, which starts Saturday against Nebraska.
Of the healthy running backs on Minnesota’s roster, Irving has the most carries (25) and rushing yards (112) and has forced 10 missed tackles on the season according to Pro Football Focus. A four-star recruit from the 2021 class, Irving was rated as the 13th best running back in the nation according to 247Sports.com and had offers from several noteworthy schools including Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Louisville, Wisconsin and Virginia Tech.
Over his final two seasons at Hill Crest High School, Irving rushed for 2,495 yards and 35 touchdowns while also notching 405 receiving yards and another four scores.
Minnesota doesn’t have many backs to feature at this point, and now could be Irving’s chance to shine.
The Gophers have taken a run-heavy approach this season, averaging 45.2 rush attempts per game, and 193.6 rushing yards per game. Pro Football Focus has Minnesota graded as the 10th best run blocking unit in the nation with a grade of 79.3.
As a starter, Potts averaged 24.5 DraftKings points per game. Sneaking Irving into your lineup will give you a substantial amount of roster flexibility, now we just need him to pay off.
Jalen Nailor, Michigan State WR
Game: Indiana (+4.5) vs. Michigan State - O/U 48.5
DraftKings Price: $6,200
Michigan State has already crushed its preseason projected win total of 5.5 games after a statement win at Rutgers last weekend by a score of 31-13.
Now at 6-0 on the season, the Spartans have a road date with Indiana, who is likely down starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (shoulder) for the weekend, and is looking to bounce back from a 24-0 loss to Penn State.
Indiana has struggled on the season, going 0-3 against powerhouses Iowa, Cincinnati and Penn State. The Hoosiers’ projected win total of 7.5 games appears to be on the verge of hitting the under, and will likely get one step closer to that against Michigan State.
The Spartans look like a team completely in sync.
Anchored by rising Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker, Michigan State’s passing game is also coming into its own, as quarterback Payton Thorne has now thrown for back-to-back 300 yard games while tossing four touchdowns to just one interception.
In the midst of this rising aerial attack is wide receiver Jalen Nailor, who is more affectionately known as Speedy Nailor around the country.
Nailor has been on a tear these past two weeks. After going for 5/221/3 last week against Rutgers (48.1 points) and for 8/128/0 (23.8 points) in the previous week against Western Kentucky.
Now Nailor and the Spartans get an Indiana defense that ranks 60th in PFF.com’s coverage grades (73.3) and 91st in pass rush grades (69.6).
This game doesn’t have the highest total (O/U 48.5), but given his recent string of success and his $6,200 price tag for this week, it’s difficult to pass on Nailor. He’s the 16th most expensive wide receiver on the slate, but has been explosive all season.
Nailor is the tied for first among receivers on this weekend’s slate at 4.7 fantasy points per reception. The other receiver with 4.7 points per reception on this weekend’s slate?
Pittsburgh’s Jordan Addison, who is priced at $8,000 on the weekend.
