USC (-2.5) over Utah - Opened (-1) | O/U 66.5 - Opened at 63.5 (Friday 8PM EST)
You can still nab the -2.5 on FanDuel, but that line could move soon with the other big books all sitting at -3. 99% of the Money and 76% of the best are on USC so far. These two teams got together back in October and produced one of the best games to watch of the entire 2022 season in a 43-42 thriller where Cameron Rising ran in a 1-yard touchdown and converted the subsequent do-or-die two-point conversion with just :46 left in regulation to secure the dramatic victory. The two teams combined for 1,118 total yards while committing just one turnover in a true offensive slugfest where Overs ruled the day.
An interesting note was how relatively uninvolved the running backs were for each team, with Travis Dye carrying just 11 times for 76 yards and Bernard/Thomas combining for just 65 rushing yards on 19 carries, resulting in easy Under cashes. Both Quarterbacks soared over their rushing props with 57 yards for Caleb and 60 yards from Rising to go with his three scores on the ground. Their current lines are 25.5 rushing yards for Caleb and 30.5 for Rising, with both representing strong buying opportunities in early trading. Of particular note is Dalton Kincaid‘s current 5.5 Receptions line, as the All-American caliber TE racked up an astounding 16 catches last game.
You simply cannot take the Under 66.5 points after the explosion we saw from these passing attacks and the possibility of a Heisman clinching performance from Caleb Williams. I lean over with the USC money line since the Trojans have a penchant for playing close games against quality opponents.
Ohio (+1.5) over Toledo - Opened at (+4.5) | O/U 55.5 - Opened at 60.5 (Saturday 12PM EST)
I touted Ohio over Bowling Green last week despite OU losing star legacy QB Kurtis Rourke the previous week. The Bobcats pulled through delivering a resounding 38-14 win to secure their spot in the MAC Championship game after having won their last 7 games in a row. Backup QB CJ Harris only threw the ball 21 times, completing 10 passes, but averaged 19.6 yards per completion on the throws he connected on, showing the ability to hit home runs when the opportunity presents itself. Harris was deadly on the ground too, rushing for 65 yards and three touchdowns. HC Tim Albin made the necessary adjustments to his 10th overall rated passing offense to account for his new dual-threat signal caller while their defense stifled Bowling Green’s rushing offense to the tune of 50 yards on 21 carries. Defensively they are allowing 19 points per game over their list seven contests, with a high of 24 points allowed as the Bobcats are surging at the right time.
Toledo is backing their way into this game losing to Bowling Green 42-35 two weeks ago before being upset by a sub-.500 Western Michigan team 20-14. Starting QB Dequan Finn left last week’s loss after going 5-for-11 for 35 yards and two interceptions, with the final pick being a dreaded pick-six before being mercifully benched in favor of backup QB Tucker Gleason. While their defense is doing a nice job allowing 338 total yards per game while ranking 18th overall against the pass and allowing a scintillating 33.5% success rate (5th in FBS).
This game was mispriced from the get go, as there’s no way Ohio should have been getting 4.5 points. I’m backing the Bobcats money line at +128.
Troy (-8.5) over Coastal Carolina - Opened at (-7) | O/U 48.5 (Saturday 3:30PM EST)
With Troy not reaching bowl eligibility in each of his three seasons at the helm, Troy fired former HC Chip Lindsey and brought in Kentucky co-DC Jon Sumrall to run the show. The turnaround has been immediate, proving the Trojans had enough talent to compete if properly coached. They’ve won their last nine consecutive games behind Sumrall’s stout defense that ranks 6th against the pass and 21st overall in terms of overall performance. They’re smothering offenses to the tune of 1.5 points per drive (12th in FBS) and 4.6 yards per play (7th), while ranking 15th in EPA/Play allowed. The identity of the offense is still their passing attack behind QB Gunnar Watson and WR Tez Johnson, as Watson averages a strong 8.0 yards per pass (36th).
On the other side, Coastal Carolina has been sputtering offensively since losing star quarterback Grayson McCall to injury against Appalachian State three games ago. Replacement starter Jarrett Guest has a 1-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the year and has completed just 19-of-42 passes for 272 passing yards over his past three games and has earned a lowly 38.8 passing grade according to PFF. This is a major problem since CCU utilizes a lot of pre-snap motion while relying on precise execution to power their 9th rated passing offense that averages an exceptional 8.9 yards per pass (6th in nation).That productivity has cratered since McCall went down and now has to trot out Guest against Troy’s vicious pass defense that ranks sixth in FBS. It’s not like CCU has a defense to fall back on either, ranking 126th against the pass and 105th overall despite playing at the nation’s 115th slowest pace. I am laying the 8.5 points and taking the men of Troy to cover against a limping CCU.
Michigan (-16.5) over Purdue - Opened (-14) | O/U 51.5 - Opened at 48.5 (Saturday 8PM EST)
The Wolverines took the college football world by storm last week when their ability to hit game changing explosive plays made Ohio State’s 51-to-38% success rate differential irrelevant, cruising to an easy victory with a 97% post game win expectancy. Michigan has been a vicious second half team all season long, with their one notable slip being the 14 points they allowed to Illinois in Week 12. That trend continued into The Game, as OSU managed just a single Noah Ruggles field goal in the second half. They are an obvious heavy favorite considering a CFP Playoff spot is a certainty so long as UM holds on to win. Their elite defense ranks second in yards per play (4.3) and yards per pass (5.6) while leading the nation in points per drive (1.0). QB JJ McCarthy fulfilled his five-star promise last game and pilots their top-10 offense that ranks ninth in FBS with a 51% success rate and 8th in points per drive (3.4). They aren’t just winning either, they’re completely outclassing their opponents, with their close win over Illinois (54% win expectancy) was the only game all season where Michigan had an expected win rate below 96%.
They face the survivor of the Big Ten’s land of misfit toys, AKA the Big 10 West Division, in Purdue who boasts wins over Minnesota and Illinois, but also lost convincingly to Wisconsin (35-24) Iowa (24-3) and did just enough to beat Big Ten doormats Indiana and Northwestern the past two weeks. The Boilermakers do a nice job of slowing teams down and making them mount drives, ranking 29th against the run and 25th in EPA/Play. Can they hold up against Michigan’s Joe Moore finalist offensive line that just mauled a very talented Ohio State defense up front? The D-line is going to really need to step up since it’s unrealistic to expect the offense to score more than 24 points against the Wolverines. Purdue ranks 69th in overall passing performance and struggles to hit big plays, ranking 85th nationally in explosiveness and 83rd with 5.4 yards per play.
Last year Michigan smelled a CFP birth on the horizon with a Big Ten Championship Game victory and they promptly stomped Iowa 42-3. They’re facing a Purdue team that is similarly overmatched and unlikely to credibly challenge the Wolverines on either line of scrimmage. I’m taking Michigan and think we see the line creep over 17 points by gametime with the prospect of another Big Ten Title Game blowout looking like a real possibility.
I’m also backing they Under 91.5 Receiving yards from Charlie Jones, who would have gone Under this mark for the 3rd straight week if it weren’t for Jones running bare naked down the middle of the field late in the 4th quarter vs. Indiana’s 109th ranked Pass D due to a blown coverage that resulted in a 70-yard touchdown reception. That’s not happening against Michigan.
