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There was nothing I found more exciting last week than watching Indiana running back Stephen Carr, my value running back play of the week, run for a 66-yard touchdown in the third quarter of last week’s game against Maryland. Carr finished the day with 31.0 PPR on DraftKings, and as the RB6 overall on the slate.
There was also nothing more crushing than TCU quarterback Max Duggan having one of his worst performances of the season. Duggan finished the day with a mere 2.1 fantasy points, which was only worsened by his $7,500 price point. In a game that had the makings of a high-scoring affair (O/U 58.5), the combined total ended with just 43 points. Duggan and the TCU offense only managed one touchdown on the day, a rushing score by running back Emari Demarcado, as the Horned Frogs fell 31-12.
One of the best plays of the week was Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker, who was only the 15th most expensive running back on the slate ($6,700) against a stout Michigan defense.
Walker turned in a 56.8 point performance on the heels of 197 rushing yards and five touchdowns, as the Heisman trophy candidate proved to be massively underpriced on the slate.
Now, Walker is the highest-priced running back on this weekend’s slate ($8,600), but is that price point high enough to rob him of his value against a Purdue team that is allowing 141.6 rushing yards per game? Let’s take a look and find out!
Aidan O’Connell, Purdue QB
Game: Purdue (+3) vs. Michigan State - O/U 53.5
DraftKings Price: $5,600
We are going a bit off the beaten path with this pick. While we generally try to prioritize player efficiency with these picks, Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell looks like a strong value at $5,600, despite being the least efficient quarterback on the slate in terms of fantasy points per pass attempt (0.6).
On the season, O’Connell has thrown for 1,551 yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season, while completing 71% of his passes. No quarterback on the slate has a higher completion percentage than O’Connell, as SMU’s Tanner Mordecai ranks second at 70.2%. With that being said, O’Connell has also played incredibly conservative on the season, as his averaged depth of target of 8.2 ranks as the fourth lowest ADOT on the slate.
On the season, O’Connell has only averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game, but erupted for an unprecedented 31.8 points in a road win against Iowa in Week 7 when he threw for 375 yards and two touchdowns.
This weekend, Purdue hosts Michigan State as three-point home underdogs.
If the potential for a negative game script against the Spartans wasn’t reason enough for O’Connell to be considered, it’s also worth noting that Michigan State has allowed the fourth most passing yards per game this season (301.0), and the most pass attempts per game (47.1).
This could be due in part to Michigan State opponent’s facing a negative game script throughout the season, as the Spartans are 8-0, and outscoring their opponents by 14.1 points per game.
What was somewhat unexpected in Michigan State’s 37-33 win over Michigan last weekend was the performance out of Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara.
Playing on a run heavy passing team, McNamara came out and threw for a season high 45 passes against MSU, completing 28 of them for 383 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. As a team, Michigan threw for 406 yards on the day, becoming the second team to throw for over 400 yards against MSU, with the first being Bailey Zappe and Western Kentucky in Week 5 (488 yards, three touchdowns).
We know that O’Connell is capable of solid performances, we just haven’t seen many of them. His Week 7 output against Iowa felt like a miracle. But His $5,600 price point makes him a player to consider, given how much flexibility he can give your roster, and the fact that Michigan State has given up big games through the air on multiple occasions.
James Cook, Georgia RB
Game: Georgia (-38.5) vs. Missouri - O/U 59.5
DraftKings Price: $5,900
Georgia gets perhaps its easiest matchup of the season this weekend against Missouri. In addition to being 38.5 point favorites, Missouri is also one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. So bad, that the Tigers actually fired their defensive line coach in the first year of his deal, just five games into the season.
On the year, Missouri is allowing the 11th most points per game this season (36.0), and the eighth most yards per game (475.5). Assuming you haven’t already drawn this conclusion, Missouri’s run defense is also brutal, ranking dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (283.3) while also allowing 2.8 rushing touchdowns per game.
For Georgia, running James Cook is the second leading rusher on the team, with a line of 57/341/3 while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Per Pro Football Focus, Cook has also forced 16 missed tackles and has four breakaway runs (runs of 15+ yards) on the season.
A play for Cook this weekend is banking on him seeing some extra work in what should be a blowout for Georgia. On the year, Cook is only averaging 9.0 opportunities per game, and is averaging just 10.5 fantasy points per game as a result.
On the season, Cook has only gone over double-digit rushing attempts twice; last week against Florida (10/46/1) and in Week 5 against Arkansas (12/87/0). In regards to fantasy scoring, Cooks is tied for the RB4 in both fantasy points per carry (1.5) and fantasy points per touch (1.2).
Consider me a buyer on the idea that the Bulldogs will run away with this one, and that Cooks will get extra run because of it. I’ll take the gamble, and bank on his output in garbage time turning him into a solid play on the slate.
If you feel safer going with starting running back Zamir White, he is priced at $7,100 and is averaging 14.0 fantasy points per game.
A.T. Perry, Wake Forest WR
Game: North Carolina (-2.5) vs. Wake Forest - O/U 76.5
DraftKings Price: $7,200
Wake Forest has been putting out a full on aerial assault on its opponents these last few weeks.
After throwing for 458 yards and five touchdowns in Week 8 against Army, the Demon Deacons ran it back last week against Duke with another 411 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Now sitting at 8-0, the 10th ranked Demon Deacons, led by quarterback Sam Hartman are looking to reach 9-0 when they hit the road to take on the Tar Heels.
If they are to push their record to 9-0 this weekend, the Demon Deacons will need wide receivers Jaquarii Roberson and A.T. Perry to continue their playmaking ways.
Of the two receivers, Roberson is the higher priced receiver ($8,000), while Perry is priced a few spots lower at $7,200. Roberson is also the more efficient receiver of the two, as he’s averaging the second-most fantasy points per reception (4.3) of any receiver on the slate (min. 20 receptions).
Perry has been on an absolute heater these last three weeks. Since going for 3/137/3 against Syracuse, Perry has averaged 133 yards and 5.3 receptions to go with 29.6 fantasy points.
According to PFF.com, North Carolina has the sixth worst pass coverage rating on the slate (63.1) and is the fifth worst defense in terms of tackling (61.8).
On the season, Wake Forest is averaging 32.5 pass attempts per game, but have marginally increased its pass attempts per game to 35.5 over the last four weeks.
Perry would need 21.6 fantasy points to triple his salary value on the slate, which could happen in a game that’s projected total currently sits at 76.5. Wake Forest gave up 56 points to Army in Week 7, as the Black Knights dominated them through the air.
One could only imagine what Sam Howell and the Tar Heels are capable of, and how the Demon Deacons would counter them. Look for Perry’s heater to continue for a fourth straight week.
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