In an effort to craft this column in such a way that it could speak to the largest amount of people playing in the most varied types of leagues, I’ve broken it into five categories for each position. Happy hunting, friends.
Quarterback
Shallow league (10 teams): D’Eriq King (Houston)
D’Eriq King is going to remind you a lot of Greg Ward. Like Ward, King is a former receiver. And like Ward, King (5’11/190) is an undersized, athletic playmaker. In Ward’s last two years on campus (also Tom Herman’s last two years with the Cougars), he posted 2,827/1,114 (2015) and 3,557/518 (2016) passing/rushing yards along with TD/INT ratios of 17/6 (2015) and 22/13 (2016) and 31 combined rushing TD. He was a fantasy monster.
King is going to be one, too. Houston assured as much when it hired whiz OC Kendal Briles to install his old Baylor system, one of the most reliably high-powered attacks in college football. Briles has never had a quarterback quite like King. In Briles’ two years as OC at Baylor (2015-2016), Seth Russell was the primary quarterback while true freshman Jarrett Stidham got run late in 2015 after Russell went down. Last year at FAU, Briles brilliantly schemed around a mediocre quarterback (Jason Driskel, who quit football immediately after the season ended).
Briles was a position coach at Baylor during Robert Griffin’s tenure, and RGIII is probably the closest stylistic comparison we have to King in terms of an apples-to-apples comparison within the same system (Kendal’s father Art, of course, ran the same offense at Baylor). King won’t duplicate Griffin’s Heisman campaign of 2011, obviously, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a similar (or even better) fantasy season than RGIII had the year before, in 2010 (3,501/635 rushing/receiving, 22/8 TD/INT rate, eight rushing TD). RGIII’s 2010 campaign was eerily similar to Greg Ward’s 2016 season.
Briles may not have King throw quite often enough to reach 3,500 passing yards, but he’s no doubt cooking up ways to scheme King into the open field to utilize his legs. King ran for seven touchdowns and averaged 67 rushing yards a game in the five games he was used at QB last year (over 12 games, that works out to 804 rushing yards and 14 rushing TD). Don’t sleep on him as a passer, either: King completed 64.8% of his passes for an 8/2 TD/INT rate and 1,280 yards in his limited action. With a full offseason to learn the quarterback ropes, one of the game’s best OCs imported to call plays, and Houston’s offensive talent among the best in the G5, it wouldn’t be a surprise if King finished as a top-five fantasy QB.
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Standard league (14 teams): Shawn Robinson (TCU)/Charlie Brewer (Baylor)
I’ve been gunning hard for each of these Big 12 sleepers in my summer drafts. So much so that it’s becoming difficult for me to unlink them in my brain. So let’s talk about both.
Robinson takes over for Kenny Hill. TCU’s offense noticeably became more tentative and conservative after Hill took over for Trevone Boykin in 2016. Over the summer, HC Gary Patterson insinuated that scheme changes were made to accommodate Hill’s weaker throwing arm. Patterson then said his next quarterback won’t require such playbook alterations. “All of our quarterbacks throw down the field,” Patterson said. “Nothing against Kenny, but I think these guys have more vertical capabilities and we’ll have more speed.” Expect TCU’s offense to look more like the explosive outfit it was under Boykin.
While Patterson is keeping the quarterback competition open this month, it would be stunning if Robinson didn’t win it. Robinson has drawn several comps to Boykin. TCU LB Ty Summers calls Robinson a “physically stronger” version of Boykin.
While we haven’t seen much of Robinson yet, Baylor gave us a sneak peak at Charlie Brewer last year. After wrestling the starting job away from Zach Smith (Smith transferred to Tulsa over the winter), Brewer averaged over 300 yards passing with a 9/3 TD/INT rate in his last four games. The dual-threat will also provide fantasy value with his legs. Brewer has one of the nation’s best receiving corps to throw to, led by Denzel Mims, Jalen Hurd (more on him below) and Chris Platt. After a program reset in Year 1 under Matt Rhule, I expect Baylor’s offense to take a huge leap this fall.
Deep league (20 teams): Bryce Perkins (Virginia)
Bryce Perkins, a former Arizona State signee, is a strong-armed dual-threat quarterback who drew raves this spring. He’s been clocked running 22.2 miles per hour, 21 mph with pads on. For context, the fastest player clocked by NFL’s Next Gen Stats last year was Leonard Fournette at 22.05 mph on a 90-yard TD run against the Steelers in Week 5. Marquise Goodwin was No. 2, reaching 21.68 in Week 9. So that’s what we’re working with.
How might Perkins look in Virginia’s offense? His arm isn’t as strong (or refined) as Kurt Benkert’s, but he’s obviously a far, far superior athlete. A better example of Perkins’ fantasy upside may be Taysom Hill, whom HC Bronco Mendenhall and OC Robert Anae coached at BYU. Anae loves to pass, but his system can be tailored to take advantage of his quarterback’s legs when he has a true dual-threat (this element of the offense was scrapped under the statuesque Benkert).
In Hill’s best collegiate season (2013) at BYU, he threw for 2,938 yards and 19 TD while rushing for 1,344 yards and 10 TD. That was a similar fantasy season to Quinton Flowers’ last year (2,911/25/1,078/11). That’s the hypothetical ceiling here if absolutely everything breaks right and Perkins is a star of the gate.
Ludicrously deep league (50 teams): Jonathan Banks (Tulane)/Jarret Doege (Bowling Green)
Tulane is entering Year 3 under triple-option running HC Willie Fritz, and Bowling Green is entering Year 3 of HC Mike Jinks’ Air Raid attack. Year 3 is typically when we see offensive breakthroughs, and I’m expecting those at both schools. Banks and Doege will be the beneficiaries.
One guy outside my top-80 that I could see breaking out as a deep-league fantasy starter: Kasim Hill (Maryland)
A four-star prospect and top-300 overall recruit coming out of high school in 2017, Hill was briefly thrust into the starting role as a true freshman last year after starter Tyrrell Pigrome tore his ACL. Unfortunately, Hill tore his own ACL not longer after, torpedoing his campaign.
Both signal-callers are back. I like Hill to beat out Pigrome this time around. Hill is a pocket passer first who also has pretty strong athleticism. I think Maryland’s offense, now led by tactical mastermind Matt Canada (newly freed from LSU’s uber-conservative anti-think tank), will be better than expected. If he wins the gig, Hill will benefit from playing behind a top-15 national offensive line (Phil Steele ranks it No. 11) and working with a solid collection of RBs (led by Ty Johnson) and WRs (led by Taivon Jacobs).
Running Back
Shallow league: Jonathan Ward (Central Michigan)
Ward isn’t fun to draft — he doesn’t have a big name, he plays on a small stage and he barely cracked 1,000 yards rushing last season — but I promise you he’s going to be thrilling to own this fall.
To borrow John Mayer’s line, Jon Ward is PPR napalm. Last season as a sophomore, Ward posted an enormous 48-470-3 receiving line while rushing for 1,024 yards and 10 TD. He’s in line for more touches this fall with Central Michigan losing its starting QB, WR1, WR2, WR3 and TE1 (more on that below). The Chippewas will give Ward as many touches as he can handle.
Standard league: Artavis Pierce (Oregon State)
Pierce ascended to RB1 bellcow status after Ryan Nall declared for the NFL Draft. The situation lines up well for a breakout campaign. The Beavers hired former Washington OC Jonathan Smith as head coach. Smith’s offenses lean heavily on the running back.
In Myles Gaskin’s three years on campus under Smith, he averaged 243.3 touches per season. Oregon State’s personnel fits a feed-Pierce strategy. On Phil Steele’s Pac-12 position rankings, he ranks the Beavs No. 12 at every position except offensive line (No. 8 — which makes the OL a strength on this rebuilding team).
Pierce is a high-floor, medium-ceiling fantasy asset. He’s being underdrafted.
Deep league: Mulbah Car (Houston)/Terence Williams (Houston)
We return to the Houston Cougars and OC Kendal Briles. In Briles’ first year as OC, in 2015 at Baylor, he had two 1,000-yard rushers (Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson) and his team averaged 326.7 rushing yards per game. The next year was the season when Briles’ father Art got fired before the season and Baylor was D.O.A. out of the gate. Despite that, the offense produced another 1,000 yard rusher (a guy by the name of Terence Williams!) while averaging 241.8 rushing yards per game. Finally, last year at FAU, Briles’ offense produced a 1,900-yard rusher (Devin Singletary, who also finished No. 3 all-time with 32 rushing TD) and averaged 285.1 rushing yards per game.
Briles’ 2015 Baylor outfit would have finished No. 1 in the nation last season in rushing yards per game by a non-option running team. His 2016 team would have finished No. 12. And his squad at FAU last year finished No. 3, behind only Arizona and USF. I’ve tossed a lot of numbers at you. The takeaway is this: Regardless of circumstance, regardless of personnel, Kendal Briles’ offenses churn out elite rushing stats.
And that brings us back to Car and Williams. Listen, I have no idea how the Houston running back situation is going to play out. I can’t tell you which of these guys is going to have more touches. But what I can tell you is that both are being criminally underdrafted. There’s a real chance that both of them go over 1,000 yards rushing next season. One of them may even threaten the 1,500-yard threshold.
And right now each is being ignored in drafts. According to Fantrax’s data, Car’s current ADP is 185, while Williams’ is 200. That means Car is dropping into the 16th round of 12-team leagues, while Williams is going in the 17th. All of that gives you a great opportunity to steal top-notch production at a pittance of the cost. If you can come out of your draft with both Car and Williams by investing a Round 8 and Round 9 pick in the both them, you do that all day. There’s a strong chance that both are strong fantasy players. But even if only one emerges, you’re golden — and you haven’t paid an enormous amount of draft equity to get it done.
Williams was recruited to Baylor by Briles, and he rushed for 556 yards in only 88 carries for Briles as a freshman before topping 1,000 yards the next year. They’re reunited now, but I’m not so sure that Williams will beat out Car. This is one of the most important position battles to monitor from a fantasy perspective this month.
Ludicrously deep league: Trey Smith (Louisville)
In my fantasy running back rankings that dropped a few weeks back, Dae Williams was the first Louisville back listed. Colin Wilson was the second. Trey Smith was not listed.
Whoops.
Cardinals RB coach Kolby Smith praised Trey Smith in the spring and earlier this summer. Apparently that wasn’t hollow coach speak. Kolby Smith told reporters in early August: “Trey is the guy. He did a great job of earning it, and I don’t see him letting it go.”
Trey Smith, the son of former Jaguars star WR Jimmy Smith, is the oldest back on Louisville’s roster. And yet he only has 32 career carries. If he’s able to fend off Williams and Wilson through the end of the month, Smith is going to be an intriguing commodity in deeper leagues. Louisville may not build its offense around the running back, but it always scores a ton of points.
One guy outside my top-100 that I could see breaking out as a fantasy starter: Khalil Herbert (Kansas)
Herbert is a good talent trapped on a terrible offense (similar to Illinois’ Mike Epstein, another guy I could have listed here). But when he gets cooking, and Kansas’ offensive linemen execute their assignments, watch out.
Herbert dropped 291 rushing yards on West Virginia last year and put up a combined 453 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns between Weeks 3 and 4 (against Ohio and WVU). Outside of those games, though, he was in the witness protection program. Herbert rushed for only 663 yards over the entire season, due mostly to nagging injuries and issues with the offense surrounding him.
Jayhawks coaches have talked this summer about emphasizing the run more, and it sounds like they’re serious about getting Herbert the touches he deserves. Lastly, apropos of nothing, an interesting Herbert factoid to leave you with: We found out at Big 12 Media Days that Herbert was born with 12 fingers. The extra digits were amputated when he was a baby.
Wide Receiver
Shallow league: Hakeem Butler (Iowa State)
The 6-foot-6, 220-pounder is set to take over the bellcow WR1 role from Allen Lazard. Butler had a respectable but humble 41-697-7 line last year. Despite the limited touches, he found ways to profoundly effect a handful games, being involved in four of ISU’s six plays of 50-plus yards from scrimmage.
Butler was a fascinating player to watch, an enormous, hyper-athletic pass-catcher operating out of the slot. Butler made Bruce Feldman’s most recent Freaks list. Feldman reported that Butler boasts a 37-inch vertical, an 11-1 broad jump, a 340-pound max bench and a 450-pound squat. Butler is also said to be ridiculously flexible and nimble. This year, he’ll ply his trade primarily on the outside, though HC Matt Campbell has talked about utilizing Butler’s versatility by moving him around the formation.
Between Lazard, Marchie Murdock and Trever Ryen, 159 catches, 1,923 yards and 16 touchdowns (249 targets) left Ames over the offseason. Butler, who will be in the Round 1 NFL Draft discussion if his testing numbers are there, is in line for a huge jump in targets. Lazard had 130 targets last year (Butler had 69). I think there’s a chance that Butler will see more than 130 targets if he stays healthy all season. I say he’s a WR1 in CFF. He’s definitely not being drafted like that, with a Fantrax ADP of 116.19.
Standard league: Damonte Coxie (Memphis)
Speaking of vacated targets! Last season, Memphis WR1 Anthony Miller posted a ridiculous 96-1462-18 line on 148 targets. Tigers WR2 Phil Mayhue had a 35-521-3 line on 64 targets. Both are gone.
Coxie, who once had scholarship offers to LSU, Alabama and Florida before academic issues led him to the G5, is Memphis’ leading returning receiver. He was targeted only 29 times last year. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if Coxie had 100 more targets this year. Former starting QB Riley Ferguson once called Coxie “a young A.J. Green.”
At 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, Coxie bears little physical resemblance to Miller. That’s nothing but a minor stylistic change for a Memphis offensive braintrust that tailors its system to the talent on hand. Coxie has the talent, opportunity and offensive system to be the top-20 CFF receiver I project him to be this fall. The only question will be whether Memphis can find a competent replacement for Ferguson out of the Brady White/David Moore competition.
Deep league: Scott Miller (Bowling Green)
Coxie’s Fantrax ADP is 103.06. And I guess that makes some sense, as many casual fans aren’t familiar with him. What’s crazier to me is that Scott Miller’s ADP is 194. That’s criminal! But maybe I shouldn’t be too surprised. In a Group of 5 industry Best Ball draft that I conducted for Rotoworld in late June — a draft full of experts — I nabbed Miller in the middle of the fifth round, No. 65 overall. And that was G5-only.
I can’t tell you that I understand why Miller is being ignored. But I will tell you what I know I know. In 2016, as a sophomore, Miller averaged almost 20 fantasy points per game (74-968-10). Last year, amid poor QB play and an inconsistent offense, he dropped off a bit (63-722-4) but remained rosterable in most leagues.
I see a career-year coming for Mr. Miller. First off, Bowling Green’s Air Raid offense, heading into the pivotal Year 3 under Mike Jinks, is essentially assured of being better. Sophomore QB Jarret Doege has established himself as the starter, and Andrew Clair has emerged as a legitimately dangerous running back to keep defenses honest. Further, with WR2 Teo Redding graduating, WR3 Datrin Guyton and WR5 Matthew Wilcox booted off the team, and WR4 Janarvis Pough announcing his transfer in mid-August, Miller accounts for an enormous share of Bowling Green’s returning receiving production. After Miller’s 63 catches, BGU’s next-highest returning receiver (Quentin Morris) had a grand total of eight receptions in 2017.
As the undisputed WR1 in an ascending Air Raid offense, Miller is the ever-tantalizing fantasy mix of high-ceiling and high-floor. Draft confidently.
Ludicrously deep league: Jalen Hurd (Baylor)
I’m buying into the Jalen Hurd hype.
Much has changed for the former 6-foot-4, 240-pound star Tennessee running back. But he remains an athletic marvel. Hurd transferred while seeking out a team that would play him on the outside. Baylor smartly took him up on this out-of-the-box idea, and I think it’s going to pay off handsomely for both parties. “He’s going to play a long time in the NFL—as a wide receiver,” Baylor head coach Matt Rhule told Bleacher Report in July. “He will be an elite wide receiver.”
A gifted receiving back at Tennessee (57 catches over his first two seasons), Hurd slimmed down for the transition outside and is now being listed at 6’4/217. Another member of Bruce Feldman’s Freak List, Hurd already had anomaly-level testing numbers at 240 pounds: 4.4 forty, 40-inch vertical, 3.8 20-yard shuttle.
Rhule held Hurd out of the spring game and played coy about that with reporters, saying “We know what he can do. No need for him to run around out there.” and “Maybe it’s best if no one sees him until the season opener.” Hurd may be a risky fantasy pick in a vacuum, but much of that risk dissipates the further and further he drops down the board in your draft. At his current ADP of 238, he’s being drafted around the likes of Hunter Renfrow and Tyrie Cleveland.
One guy outside my top-100 that I could see potentially breaking out as a fantasy starter: Brandon Childress (Central Michigan)/Isaiah Hodgins (Oregon State)
Central Michigan’s pass-catching corps was decimated over the winter, with WR1 Mark Chapman, WR2 Corey Willis, WR3 Eric Cooper and TE1 Tyler Conklin all leaving. Only four starters return on offense. Childress is being overlooked after he was knocked out for the season early last September when he tore an ACL while celebrating a touchdown. Heading into the season, he’s the clear WR1 on a team that wants to throw the ball and has little it can rely on in the receiver’s room.
Hodgins, one of the highest-rated recruits Oregon State has ever signed, could be a target hound under his new coaching staff. Over the past six seasons at three different stops, new Beavers OC Brian Lindgren’s WR1 has lines of 82-1307-9, 83-1343-10, 106-1198-12, 89-1053-4, 56-883-9 and 62-693-5. Hodgins may be the most talented player on Oregon State’s roster. The touches should be there, and he’s going to come at a discount on draft day.
Tight End
Shallow league: Dax Raymond (Utah State)
Dax Raymond ranks second among all returning tight ends with 41 receptions last year. He finished with a 41-456-1 line. The low TD total was fluky, and that bad luck should reverse itself. Another thing going in Raymond’s favor is expected improvement from Utah State’s offense.
Young starting QB Jordan Love, who was thrown to the wolves as a freshman, is now a year older, with six starts of game action under his belt. Freak athlete RB Darwin Thompson (also on Feldman’s list) has been added from the JUCO ranks. And Utah State already had interesting skill talent on the roster, between dangerous 6’4 boundary receiver Ron’Quavion Tarver and Gerold Bright, who has the versatility to bounce between slot WR and running back. Have I mentioned that all five Aggies starting offensive linemen return?
Utah State isn’t far from an offensive breakthrough. If it happens, Tarver and Raymond could both explode. Fun!
Standard league: Farrod Green (Mississippi State)
I don’t know if any tight end in the nation benefitted from offseason developments as much as Farrod Green. A former three-star receiver recruit, Green has packed on 25 pounds since arriving on campus for the transition to tight end. We’ve only seen brief flashes of athletic ability so far. Green is about to get the opportunity to do so much more.
That’s because Mississippi State hired HC Joe Moorhead, who runs one of the most TE-friendly offenses in college football. In Moorhead’s four seasons at FCS Fordham, his TE1 averaged a 48-464-4 receiving line. And in Moorhead’s two years at Penn State, Mike Gesicki posted receiving lines of 38-679-5 and 57-563-9.
One other thing going for Green from a targets perspective: The Bulldogs had one of the nation’s worst receiving corps last year (the leading receiver had a 27-276-0 line). JoeMo desperately needs three or four reliable pass catchers to emerge, and Green is a pretty solid bet to be one of them.
Deep league: Brevin Jordan (Miami)
The nation’s No. 1 TE recruit, Jordan opened camp as Miami’s TE3. It looked like he might struggle to see consistent snaps this fall. And then two things happened: Starting TE Michael Irvin II was lost for the season to injury, and coaches realized that Jordan was as advertised.
Comped by Rivals’ Mike Ferrell to former Ole Miss TE Evan Engram, Jordan’s speed, athleticism and natural receiving ability all draw high grades. On the day this column posted (Monday, August 13), word out of Miami was that Jordan was now working with the first-team offense. At this point, it seems like a foregone conclusion that he’ll hit the ground running as the Hurricanes’ undisputed starter at TE.
Playing in a strong offense, Jordan has top-20 CFF tight end potential.
