Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
Up next, the Men of Michigan:
Michigan
HC - Jim Harbaugh (8th year)
OC - Sherrone Moore (2nd year)
DC - Jesse Minter (1st year)/Steve Clinksdale (DBs coach - 1st year DC)
2022 Record: 13-1
Second Order Win Total: 12.3 (-0.7)
Points/Yards Per Game: 40.4 points | 459 yards (220 pass | 239 rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 16.1 points | 292 yards (194 pass | 98 rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 3rd
2023 SP+ Offense: 7th
2023 SP+ Defense: 4th
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 3rd
Offensive Returning Production: 73.4% 32nd)
Defensive Returning Production: 74.2% (20th)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8982 (14th)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8880 (17th)
Pace of Play: 29:4 seconds per play (120th) | 70 plays per game (47th)
2023 Schedule Strength: 67th
Looking Back at 2021 & 2022
Under OC Josh Gattis the 2021 Wolverines were an extremely efficient unit, averaging 4.85 points per scoring opportunity (13th) with a 47% success rate (25th) and finishing as SP+’s 19th overall unit. Their 36 points and 443 yards per game averages accounted for the school’s most prolific offensive output since 2016, when they exploded for 40.3 points per game. Michigan unleashed a blitzkrieg behind RBs Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum and their Joe Moore Award winning offensive line that rushed for a total of 214 yards and 5.2 YPC while being ranked second overall in havoc rate allowed (8.8%).
Last year Josh Gattis moved south for a disastrous one-year pseudo-vacation in South Beach, leaving the OC spot to two internal hires in Matt Weiss and Sherrone Moore. The offense actually improved to 40.4 PPG (6th in FBS) with 459 YPG without Gattis, which eclipsed their already potent 2021 iteration. QB JJ McCarthy split reps for the first few games before wresting the starting job from Cade McNamara and leading the Wolverines to an undefeated Big Ten Championship.
McCarthy completed 64% of his throws with a 75.7 passing grade and an excellent 10.8% pressure-to-sack rate, showing his ability to navigate the pocket under duress. He was somewhat constricted by Michigan’s conservative scheme that ran the ball 65% of the time on standard downs (19th in FBS) with just 21% of the team’s passes going to outside receivers, which was the third-lowest wide usage rate in the country. Instead, HC Harbaugh chose to target their tight ends more than the wideouts, receiving 24.5% of the target share which was the fifth-highest TE usage rate nationally. Though he went downfield just 17% of the time, McCarthy had a strong 46% adjusted completion rate with a 91 PFF pass grade on deep shots and would benefit from a more open passing attack in year two as a starter.
The offense benefited greatly from All-American Virginia transfer C Olusegun Olawatimi (80.4 PFF overall grade/0 sacks allowed/.8% blown block rate), as the line actually won the coveted Joe Moore Award for the second-straight season, the first time in history that a team has won back-to-back Moore Awards. They cleared the way for RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards to accrue 239 yards per game on the ground (5th in FBS) and 5.6 yards per carry (3rd), while sporting a combined 1.2% blown block rate (31st). Elite pass protection was a major factor in McCarthy’s success last season, as the OL committed just 2.5 penalties per game (11th) with a 12.5% havoc rate allowed (20th). Unfortunately pass pro was also the instrument of Michigan’s demise against TCU with the Horned Frogs generating 13 pressures, two of which led to McCarthy’s pair of costly TAINT’s in the CFP Playoff.
Harbaugh brought in his third DC in the last three years with Vanderbilt DC, and former Ravens staffer, Jesse Minter assuming play calling duties while taking on DBs coach Steve Clinksdale as his Co-DC. DC Minter inherited a stellar 2021 defense that ranked 10th in SP+ and posted a 90% tackle rate (4th) while holding opponents to 1.40 points per drive (8th). The defensive line terrorized opponents to the tune of a 36% pressure rate (12th), but only freak-list star IDL Mazi Smith (6’3/326) returned from the DL. The secondary allowed just a 57% completion rate and 17 touchdowns in 14 games, but the defense returned just four starters from 2021, leaving some doubt as to how Michigan would fill the gaps.
Under the tutelage of DC Miner, the defense actually got better despite the massive 2021 departures, allowing 16 PPG and 292 YPG with 37 sacks and achieving a defensive SP+ rating of 9th overall. Michigan forced opponents into 3-and-outs 41% of the time (7th in FBS) while ranking fourth overall in EPA/Play allowed. They were especially stingy in their own territory, allowing just 3.4 points per scoring opportunity (8th) with a 44% red zone TD rate (7th).
The inexperienced defensive line came together nicely, With Cowboys R1 NFL draft selection Mazi Smith earning Defensive MVP (48 tackles, 32 stops, 8% missed tackle rate) and Seahawks R5 DE Mike Morris leading the team with 37 pressures and an 86.5 pass rush grade. The Wolverines’ 32% pressure rate ranked 23rd overall with a respectable 7.1% sack rate (38th). However there is certainly room for the DL to grow, as their 15.4% stuff rate (93rd) and 2.7% DL havoc rate (123rd) were disappointing marks for such a talented front.
Junior Colson stepped up to take the MLB sport with authority, leading the team with 101 tackles to go with a stellar 6.7% missed tackle rate and 33 stops. The second-team All-Big Ten honoree could use some work in coverage though, allowing completions on 31-of-33 targets for a 106.9 NFL passer rating when targeted. He is flanked by fellow All-Big Ten WLB Michael Barrett, who finished second on the team with 72 tackles, 3.5 sacks, two interceptions and 30 stops. This is one of the best linebacker groups in the country and could eclipse last year’s exceptional 7.4% havoc rate (15th).
Michigan returned four defensive backs with 23 total games of starting experience, and the unit proved up to the task by allowing 5.1 yards per dropback (7th) with a 2.4% TD rate (4th) and contesting 33% of passes thrown their way (12th). CB1 DJ Turner earned a second round NFL draft selection by the Bengals by allowing a 38% completion rate with 10 PBU as the Wolverines’ shutdown corner. Converted WR Mike Sainristill adjusted to the nickel back role seamlessly, posting 58 tackles with 4.5 TFL and seven PBU. It’s safe to say Michigan’s pass defense was a catalyst for their undefeated run through the Big Ten.
Looking ahead to 2023
The offense returns seven starters from last year’s historic group, including starting QB JJ McCarthy along with RBs Blake Corum & Donovan Edwards. You could make a case that this is the best backfield in the country, collectively ranking sixth nationally with a 53% rushing success rate. A thriving run game is especially important considering Michigan is 18-7 (.720) against the spread when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season, 2nd-best in FBS (Avg: .435).
The back-to-back Joe Moore Award winning OL has the advantage of returning three starters who earned All-Big Ten recognition in RG Zak Zinter (1st team), LG Trevor Keegan (1st team) and RT Karsen Barnhardt (honorable mention). Michigan also adds two more impact transfers in Stanford C Drake Nugent (822 snaps/84.1 run block grade in 2022) and Arizona State LG Ladarius Henderson (1,184 snaps/78.1 pass block grade L2Y) who is expected to slide to LT for the Wolverines. A catalyst for the team’s ascension the last two years, Michigan is 17-7 (.680) against the spread when the OL allows less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season, the sixth-highest win percentage in the nation (Avg: .443). They will field another upper-echelon offensive line.
If there’s a question mark on the offense, it’s how Michigan will replace the dependable Ronnie Bell, who averaged a sterling 2.56 yards per route with 38 first down receptions and a combined 80.1 receiving grade over the last two seasons. WR Roman Wilson performed well when healthy, averaging 2.2 yards per route over the last two years while breaking seven tackles on 25 receptions last season. Though he was hampered in the second half of the season, Wilson was back up to speed in the CFP Playoff game against TCU, catching 5-of-6 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. He also has experience outside, logging 74% of his reps on the boundary in 2021, while running 90% of his routes from the slot last year. Bell had a 58% wide/42% slot ratio last season, so Wilson’s versatility could give him a leg-up in the WR1 battle with Cornelius Johnson, who is an outside-only receiver that needs to overcome a 12% drop rate to be the true alpha here.
Defensively, the biggest question for me is how the defensive line replaces the departures of monstrous IDL Mazi Smith in addition to DE Mike Morris and DE Eyabi Okie, who were the top two team leaders in havoc rate. Edge Jaylen Harrell recorded 9.5 TFL in just 447 snaps with a strong 2.6% havoc rate and should be a force. IDL Kris Jenkins led with 36 stops and a solid 80.3 defensive grade and should hopefully help ease the loss of Mazi in the middle. They also portal-in CCU edge Josiah Stewart who racked up 12.5 sacks for the Chanticleers in 2022. If the Wolverines want to reach the top of the FBS mountain, their DL is going to have to be more stout against the powerful SEC OLs of Georgia and Alabama, as well as the dominant Penn State line who they play just two weeks before Ohio State. For perspective, Michigan is 17-6 (.708) against the spread when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season, the sixth-best mark in FBS (Average: .470).
All three linebacker starters return after earning All-Big Ten recognition, forming the backbone of the defense. Colson, Barrett and Sainristill are a verified top-10 unit nationally. CB1 Will Johnson takes over the top corner role from R2 draftee DJ Turner, with Johnson earning a team-high 88.9 coverage grade and secondary leading 1.6% havoc rate as a true freshman. He is primed to suffocate opposing WR1s for the next two seasons before becoming a high NFL draft choice. FS Rod Moore is another All-Big Ten player who recorded 71 tackles to go with a team-leading four interceptions while patrolling the back line. With seven starters returning and some key underclassmen rising up the ranks, Michigan’s defense will be vicious once again.
Analyzing Michigan’s Win Total
Thanks to an incredible draw where Michigan plays ECU/UNLV/Bowling Green in non-conference play, along with facing @Minnesota/Purdue/@Nebraska from the Big Ten West, Michigan plays the 67th toughest schedule in the country. With HC Jim Harbaugh now reported to be missing the first four games of the season for rules violations (ECU/UNLV/Bowling Green/Rutgers - all at home) that Charmin-soft opening schedule carries even greater significance. The only two games where Michigan will be less than 10-point favorites are @Penn State in Week 11 and vs. Ohio State in the Big House two weeks later to close out the season.
FanDuel has Michigan lined at +185 to win the Big Ten, slightly behind Ohio State at (+165), though the lines vary by book effectively making the two B10 powerhouses co-favorites. Michigan’s team win total of 10.5 (-120) gives them the leeway to drop one of the two games against Ohio State or Penn State and still have a path forward to a cover. We could very well see a repeat of last year, where both Michigan and Ohio State were undefeated heading into The Game. Michigan had an 83% win expectancy in every Big Ten game except for Illinois and their impenetrable defense, a team that isn’t on the schedule this season.
I’m backing the Over 10.5 games since I cannot go against this cupcake schedule after Michigan has torn through the Big Ten the last two seasons and returns 15 starters. I prefer the Over 10.5 to the (+185) to win the Big Ten itself since I can still win the O/U even with a stumble along the way. If I’m going to park my money in a season-long bet that I can’t turnover in the lucrative CFB Player Props market I want to have a couple of outs, and Michigan’s schedule is full of possibilities.
